With 3 wins on the board I am now in joint 7th place with 33 wins/34 placings from 120 races. racing Guide is in the lead with 40 wins followed by Xiu Fang in 2nd on 38 wins and Andrew Frost on 3rd with 37 wins. With my review of selection strategy back to last season's winning formula I should narrow the gap by the end of this month and should be back in the Top 3 or Top 5 by end of March. My experiment succeed in delivering 3 value bets in the form of All Elusive on at $30/$15 on 17 Jan,Lim's Connection at $30/$10 on 05 February amd Day of Empire at $37/$9 on 16 February but my primary target is to put more wins on the board to prove my belief in the methodolgies taught by my mentor Benny Ortega and to show that last season's record breaking 240 wins was not just a flash in the pan or a one season wonder.
I expect to do well in the win/place , forecast and exotic bets today and you should focus on the 2 main chances and the cover bets as bankers for the exotics. The numbers on the left of the 2 slashes are the main chances while those on the right of the 3 slashes have (in my opinion at least) have no chance of winning but are good for the 3rd and 4th line on the exotics if you have the budget. A good example is last week's win by Goldschatz for a paltry win dividend of $13 but if you had followed our advice to use him as a banker we scored on both the tierce and quartet having to use only 4 more horses for a return of $207 and $782 from a mere investment of $24 and $48 respectively. Even if you used the full list of 6 other horses for $60 and $240 you would have still made a profit.
My selections for today are :-
RACE 1 FLASH GORDON...SMALL...3-8//5- 10-4/// 13-7..PACE VERY SLOW...SUGGEST TOKEN COVER ON 8. 3 HAS THE SPEED FIGURE BUT 8 HAS A BETTER HANDICAP AND CAN UPSET.WILD LONGSHOT IS NEWBIE FLASH BACK WHO COST A$80K
RACE 2 VANQUISH...BIG...3/9// 5///4-10/ 8/1...PACE SLOW...9 HAS AN OLD HANDICAP ADVANTAGE OVER 3 DONE OVER 1800M ON 18 SEP BUT UNLIKELY TO TROUBLE VANQUISH SERIOUSLY
RACE 3 ALACARTE...MEDIUM...4-2// 7-11/// 5/ 6-3...PACE FAST...MOST CLASSY HORSE IN THE FIELD BUT WIDE BARRIER A SLIGHT CONCERN...CHANCES BETTER DUE MAIN DANGER SPEAKNOEVIL WITHOUT BLINKERS A DISADVANTAGE
RACE 4 ZAC MISSILE...BIG...6-7/ 3// 5 /// 4-1...PACE VERY SLOW...CONSIDER TOKEN COVER ON 7 BUT IGNORE 7 AND COVER 5 SERIOUSLY IF 5'S BODY WEIGHT GETS CLOSER TO 466KG AS 5 HAS SUPERIOR HANDICAP AND SPEED FIGURE COMPARED TO 6 BASED ON HIS 20 sEP 09 LOSS TO UNDAUNTED....CAN UPGRADE 5 TO 1ST CHOICE IF BODY WEIGHT IS RIGHT.
RACE 5 SIR DENIS...SMALL...MOST OPEN RACE OF THE DAY WITH OVERSEAS FORM UNCLEAR...5-6/ 7-1// 3/// 11-4...EAGLE FARM TRACK IS IN CANBERRA WITH 1000m TRACK RECORD OF 0:56.0 AND 1200M AT 1:08.1. sIR DENIS PROJECTED SPEED FIGURE IS EXTRAPOLATED AT 1:09.53
RACE 6 TEEN ANGEL...BIG...7/ 6/ 3 // 1-5/// 8-4...PACE VERY SLOW...NOTHING MUCH TO TROUBLE EXCEPT UNKNOWN SUPER TRIO AND EXPECTED SLOW PACE WILL HELP
RACE 7 MEXICAN ROSE...BIG... 9/8-4 // 5 /// 1/ 7-2...PACE SLOW...CAN CONSIDER TOKEN ON 8....CLASSY LADY MEXI SHOULD PUT SOME DAYLIGHT AND SLIPSTREAM BETWEEN THE BOYS ALTHOUGH THE BOYS SEEM TO HAVE BETTER SPEED FIGURES
RACE 8 THANKSGIVING...BIG... 14-4/// 12-3// 7/ 11-5...PACE GOOD ...MUST COVER 4 WELL...14 HAS THE BETTER HANDICAP...BETTER SPEED FIGURES AND BETTER SECTIONALS BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND MUST COVER 4.
RACE 9 I TAWT I TAW...MEDIUM...10-8// 12-1/ 7 /// 14/6...PACE VERY FAST...MUST COVER 8 WELL...8 HAS THE BETTER SPEED FIGURE AND THE BETTER BARRIER DRAW BASED ON RUNNING STYLE BUT 10 HAS THE BETTER HANDICAP BUT MIGHT BE BLOCKED FOR A RUN BUT IS IN TERRIFIC FORM AND SHOULD GO CLOSE.
19 February 2010
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