Replication of post on Singapore Nap 31 August 2012

Singapore Nap 31 Aug 2012

Mr Raffles

Race 8 Kranji Stakes A

1200M Short Course A

Stakes $125,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Kudos to Racing Guide for getting the speedmap correct on Al's Knight last week although we all missed the win on stablemate No Respite who did have the required handicap credentials but his track work form was well hidden with all the Media spotlight on the favourite.

For this week's agenda I have a suggestion for the improvement of the Horse Racing industry in Singapore and this extras should be adressesd sooner rather than later for the benefit of racegoers. If my pleas fall on deaf ears and the incumbents remain complaacent than I hope a new entrant in the Media business will give them a run for their money. STC has a role to play as well to play to encourage the necessary improvements. Turf Guide has along been very strong in giving data on the Dams of the horses featured ie winless Dams, placed Dams, Dams with a single win , Dams with multiple wins and Dams winning Black type races. Surely this information is relevant in newbie races like Restricted Terms, Novice, Initiation and even the Magic Millions for the 2YO races. The yearling prices of theses horses/geldings should be provided on a consistent basis as well. Our 2 local Race books should by comparison have more extensive resources at their disposal than their Malaysian based rival but this vital information is sorely lacking and it is crucial in assessing whether a horse can handle the rise in distance for the 1st time. Space constraints may be a consideration but it is a poor excuse and I hope STC stipulates the provision of this vital information when they open the STC Racing Programme Books on race day for tender. Both race books continue to provide data on winning times without complete information eg Racing Guide provides the best time column and states the name of the horse and timing but without information on weight carried while Punters Way provides information on past wins beyond the past 6 runs with with the margin of victory indicated.....I suggest they drop the margin of victory and include the timing and weight carried by the winning horse instead. As for the provision of sectional times I suggest Punters Way drops the variable opening sectional times for the varying distances and come up with an opening and closing 400M sectionals instead. If they believe in their variable opening sectionals they should explain to their readers how to to use these sectionals to drive at selecting winners instead. Surely a horse performing a timing at 50kg weight carry cannot be expected to perform the same figure when he carries 57kg on race day and by putting these horses in order of priority based on recorded times without taking the weight carried will carry a misleading impression on the abilities of the horse featured(mind you we have evolved to other factors being more important than timings in modern advance handicapping techniques including the use of speed maps and Trackus sectional times). I suggest STC insists on these stipulated improvements when tenders are released for next seasons's contract.

Regarding my previous article on the number of selected horses it is of course the prerogative of the various pubications and it is up to them to provide 3 or 4 selections for all their tipsters as they see fit as to whether they provide their readers value for money. Of course the readers themselves have to choose one publication over the other as well and I would take into consideration the Media ranking of the various Tipsters in their entourage(or stable if one accepts the pun) of tipsters and I would choose based on this premise ....which one provides more information and whether their tipsters are rated higher. If the answer is yes on both counts it is a no brainer which publication I would purchase.

New competition is the best way for standards to improve and if the recalcitrant players don't shape up they will be shipped out or retrenched when Management wakes up to dwindling sales figures. Publications must strive to innovate and keep abreast of latest trends in handicapping like the use of speed maps and sectional times, provide more information(which handicapping books to read, which videos to purchase and which websites to surf for more horse racing information on Sires and Dams) for their readers on the latest boom sires or be left behind in sales figures when new players enter the market and wake them up from their lethargy and inertia in developing new products and still maintain their old ways of providing race information. The new players will be hungrier and will try harder to impress and will eventually outpace them in sales figures if they still don't wake up and innovate and remodel themselves. It is easy to be number 1 but it is harder to stay on top!

Starstatz Racing has had a poor month in December with lack lustre performances partly due to fairly thorough research but in doing so faced tiredness when making selections and it did'nt help that i had more winners with my 2nd picks and missed easy favourites like Super Good and Bullshot for last Sunday. Hopefully I can reverse the trend this week with more time devoted to analysis!.

Singapore Nap is on 34 wins/ 16 placings from 71 selections for the best strike rate of 48.57% in an unfair comparision of one race per day and I believe Racing Guide has overtaken me( I dont have their confirmed score) and I am now 4th in the full card challenge with 203 wins from 670 selections for a 30.3% strike rate! I am behind the race leaders by double digit figures.

PREVIEW OF RACE

Today's race is a nightmare for handicappers as well as for serious horse investments and you have the pull of a horse with a decent handicap figure but drawn badly versus the horse with the best sectionals and consideration for other horses who are drawn well but unproven on turf. The other vital factor ....the pace of this race is expected to be good to fast and that will scupper the chances of the front runners involved in the early speed battle who are drawn outside with the one with the rails run(provided he does not lead) remaining relatively unscathed. This race is set for closers and off pace runners and even that our selection despite having the best speed figure and sectional times is drawn worst(for himself) in barrier 1 which will mean he has to swing wide at the turn or ride for luck and weave his way through tiring horses in the home straight. My suggestion ....take a coffee break and bet $2 just for the thrill on the outcome of this race.

I will provide data for some aspiring winners and the possibility is strong that the winner may not even be one of these trio!

1) Eclair Fastpass....HR 97.63....SF 1:09.37 Sectional times 46.119(not true time as opening sectional belongs to actual race leader) ....track work star who runs well 2nd up with 1 win/1 placing from 3 2nd up starts and will be suited by a fast pace but not drawn well in barrier 1....easily the classiest horse in this race having exprienced a placing in Singapore Airlines Group races

4) Mr Jamal Malik....HR 105.88....SF ...available.....has won a couple of 1000M trials recently...History indicatees this distance is too short for him but breeding and recent training regimen indicates he may surprise at odds especially if the pace is fast!

5) Mr Raffles....HR 99.39....SF1:10.527...SECTIONALS...47.539.....DOES NOT HAVE BEST HR OR SF BUT BEST SECTIONALS INDICATE AS HE IS DRAWN FAVOURABLY COMPARED TO 12 AND 1.....FAIR VALUE BET!

8) Birthday Gift....HR 101.48....SF 1:09.69 (extrapolated from Poly)....no sectional times....best handicap rating among the trio.....ran poorly on yielding track in only run on turf...form doubtful as well....the dark horse in this race as Black Minnaloushe have been known to do well on turf in HKG races....drawn well and like to get the rails run as a front runner. An even or good pace will enhance his chances....wild longshot...check body weight before considering!

12) What Now...HR101.84.....SF 1:10.138.....sectional times 47.799( not true sectional times as 1st 400M figure was that of actual race leader) ...but will do well if opening 400M is 24.13 or faster! Drawn badly but having the "magic of Moreira" on board. If this was a true handicap race he would be carrying 45.5kg and he may overwhelmed by the class factor in this race although his HR figures gives him a fighting chance!

In order my selections are 5-12-1-4-8-11-3 . I suggest do not bet at all for this and take a coffee break! If you insist and cannot  desist and resist I suggest 5#12-1-4 forecast/place forecast ....one single ticket only

                       

 

SINGAPORE NAP 31 AUGUST 2012

Moreira had a comparatively lower strike rate in recent meetings. Today he will vie Vorster for top jockey honours for the day with a handful of winners each. My selections are :-
RACE 1   *1-11/7-12....longshot of the night....BEST SECTIONAL TIMES WITH GOOD HANDICAP...11 HAS BEST HANDICAP
RACE 2 *2-4/1-11
RACE 3 *1-6/10-2
RACE 4  ***5-6/4-3.....SHOO-IN BET OF THE NIGHT
RACE 5 *9-8-/7-6
RACE 6  ***12-8/13/7...BEST BET
RACE 7 *6-2/4-9...
RACE 8 *5-12-4-1/1-3-10
RACE 9  **1-7/10-9...VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT

REPLICATION OF POST ON SINGAPORE NAP 26 AUGUST 2012

Singapore Nap

                                   26 Aug 2012

                      Damo (x2)

 

    Race 8 Pan Malaysian Pools Trophy

                 1200M Polytrack

                  Stakes $75,000

 

              BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Singapore Nap had a disastrous outing with the top 2 favourites running last and 2nd last. Are they really such poor horses? Losing in racing comes with the territory but it would not have raised my eyebrows if one of them ran a placing (common outcome as favourites run a place 50% of the time) or both ran unplaced (it is not unusual if they were in poor form on that day or poorly handicapped which is part and parcel of losing and winning in racing) somewhere in midfield. Are these horses of such poor quality and totally outclassed by this average field. Were all the trackwatchers at Kranji looking at the wrong I.D. numbers on their saddlecloths when they made these 2 the trackwork stars. This phenomenon of hot odds on favourites has been happening too often at Kranji recently. Without any proof I would be foolish to make any direct accusations or even suicidal to even allude or imply anything on conspiracy theories. Perhaps the pace was too hot so both favourites flopped but theory does not stand on firm ground as the top 3 finishers ran an on pace style near the lead.

I understand from the stewards reports that both horses have been impounded for routine examination.

they had an off-day just as tipsters like us).

Perhaps some of these procedures are already in place so I apologise if this is so already. The chemists who analyse these samples should be rotated(perhaps it is being done by STC already) on a yearly basis so that if there is any deviation from industry standard practices this anomaly will not be a cause for concern .

Procedure number 2 .....in cases of favourites running last only or a woeful performance in the last 3 as deemed by the Stewards a 2nd sample should be sent to an independant lab for testing and I would suggest to send them pre-planned doctored positive samples once in a while to keep them on their toes and test their efficiency in detecting prohibited drugs and all these samples should be send blind (so testers don't know which horse it refers to)but numbered for internal reference similar to blind wine tasting.

I personally know of 3 past cases of Trainers being banned or deported in the past history of racing in Singapore but some of their exits were glossed over with enthusiastic Media coverage as hunky dory .....business as normal as if they were planning new business opportunities and returning to their home countries. This Media coverage giving credence to their relocation is sending the wrong message....you transgress Singapore Laws.....you get away scot free(not sure if they were any fines imposed) and we publicise your repatriation(and coat it with stories of change of scenery, home sickness or ill-health in the family) as if nothing untoward has happened.....and you can continue to work in the industry(off the public view i hope at least the racing authorities are informed of the transgressions so they are

 alert to any repeat occurences when they go back....according to my sources this is already being done but quietly away from public view). Interestingly enough these errant cases were not caught through normal drug testing procedures but were caught with their pants down in surprise stable raids where drugs, syringes and other incriminating evidence were found in their stables and some were raided due to tip-offs by a disgrunted party. One conclusion from this experience ......the drugs they are using are either undetectable( i hope this is the correct reason) or our procedures in place are inadequate!

Looking at the experiences from the Lance Armstrong case in the field of cycling the way to go is to invest further resources in detecting designer drugs and we should exchange experiences/data/information with other leading racing centres to embrace new tools/procedures to detect this hitherto undetectable drugs. From news reports I gather this is what happened in the cycling case with new advances in detection technology as well as new witnesses who were silent before came forward to testify. Perhaps giving a bounty reward of $10,000 for leads leading to arrests is a step in the right direction. STC should invest resources to keep racing in Singapore pristine clean without even a murmur or rumour of undetected foul play. If I was a clean Trainer I would certainly not be happy if such illegal practices are allowed to continue unchecked. We used to laugh at other less developed racing centres when a class 5 donkey who had not won a single race in the past year suddenly sprouted form and wings (figuratively) and won 3 races in a row and nobody batted an eye lid and business continued as per normal. I hope this anomaly does not happen here due to undetected designer drugs or current procedures being adequate!

I have previously in the past been hankering for STC to commission a vendor to produce Speed Maps for the STC website but to date nothing has happened. The only thing we have that is close to it is the offering by Racing Guide

useful but not always right....something is better than nothing! Anyway I do  find it useful and use it on every race day when time constraints do not allow me the luxury of accessing the sectional times of every horse in the race). Punters Way and Victory Trail either do not have the expertise or deem it as an unimportant factor in analysing a race. I believe this is a potent factor why the most ( not all) of the table toppers in the Media Tipster Challenge are from the English stream Tipsters. Congragulations to Mr X for tipping Indulge(starstatz racing as well!) and El Milagro whose chances i wrote off. Even the sectional offered by Punters Way is useless to me as a Pundit as the figures are done at inappropriate distances of 300M , 800M when the industry norm. Sometimes mistakes were evident last week even for the standard 400M opening sectionals.  I hope to contact them directly when I am less busy to point out these school boy errors. I implore STC to make a decision on this subject based on what happens in Race 8 on Sunday.  I have no issues and I am satisfied with the general work done by Racing Guide and I am pleased with their efforts at innovations but they could be wrong in their Leader table....they have Al's Knight at 64% (thus implying that he will lead if he can get the rails run), Californian Star at 61% (which correctly implies that Al's Knight will not get the rails run), Damo at 28%, Bring More Money at 25% and BM Win at 25%. From the leader analysis we can conclude that this race is run in a slow pace with only 2 front runners. I have a different theory on the Speed Map of this race and I believe the pace will be good with 3 front runners and Al's Knight will not be in the leading bunch . In order they are Front runners ....8-2-7....on pace runners 10-3-1....off pace runners 5-6-9 and 4 will either jump last as a closer or with the off pace bunch! If this race pans out as I have envisaged that this is a good start regarding my moot point that it is time for STC to hire a vendor ( I have a vested interest in applying for the job but I kn

for the Racing Guide offering on their menu. From nbr 8 at 24.07 400M sectionals to number 3 at 24.849 then we have Al's Knight jumping 6th ( barring human error) at 25.1 ( at best) if he chooses to race near the front and worse if he follows the last run pattern in closing style at 25.389. Andrew Frost has tipped al's Knight as his best best bet of the day and Tan Thean Loon has him as 1st pick. Being an arm chair tipster I may be on the wrong track and Al's Knight is certainly the track work star and I am wary as these  2 tipsters watch the training practically everyday so I may hedge my selections in starstatz racing when I receive my track report. Al' s Knight also has the best closing 400M sectionals among this field at 22.959 (the only one below 23.0 secnds) and is definitely  a clear and present danger to my pick.

Update on latest tallys ....Andrew Frost is the full card challenge leader with 214 winners from maximum of 670 races at 31.94%and Winner 21 is breathing down his neck in 2nd with 213 winners from maximum at 31.79% . Brian Miller(most improved Tipster for this season) is the best of the rest just off the 30% benchmark in 5th at 199 winners at 29.7%

Singapore Nap still has the best strike rate (albeit on an unfair comparison on single race per day format) at 48.57% with 34 winners/16 placings from 71 selections. In the full card challenge Starstatz Racing is in 3rd with 203 wins from maximum at 30.3%.

PREVIEW OF RACE This will be a battle between 2 protagonists and conspiracy theorists will point out that Vorster , the regular stable jockey for Trainer Shaw has opted to ride Al's Knight leaving Shaw horse, Damo with Saimee on board. The forecast although with meagre returns looks the safest forecast bet of the day but if all my theories pan out the 1st 2 finishing order might be a little different .With pressing datelines I shall only highlight the handicap data for the top 2 with Al's Knight at HR73.47.....SF 11.81....sectional times at 48.348 compared to Damo at 47.998(for opening and closing 400M figures read my points raised in "background information". My observaion why Vorster was not assigned to Damo is that Saimee did the original track work on the horse and it seems Shaw is fostering a closer relationship with Saimee by giving him more chances as his number 2 jockey. As we saw in the Pasha Khan win in Race 7 on Friday Moreira switched from Pasha Khan to Zac Command and ran unplaced. The scenario here is slighly different as I expect Al's Knight to win or run 2nd. Dutch betting on both horses might be the safest solution and I suggest that for direct forecast(big multiple bet...skip the place forecast as the returns are low.....cover 3 and 1 as joint bankers for the exotics as well as the 2nd line for all exotics but I will cover one ticket with 7-8 on the 2nd and even 3rd lines(lower budget required). The market fancies Californian Star to grab one of the top 4 starts but I am taking a calculated risk and not putting him in my top 7. In order my selections are 3-1-7-8-9-6-10(you can leave 10 out for the main plays especially if you are using 2 bankers but i have chosen him despite one poor polytrack outing but I expect Tom to reach class 1 eventually and Darci Bharma's progeny are the fashion right now and most have done well on the polytrack. I have put Damo as a special ( X2) despite the serious threat from Al's Knight but I expect 1 to hold 1st favouritism and Damo will be a good value bet bet for actual play and offer a decent price even if he runs 2nd while Al's Knight is likely to be odds on with Andrew Frost's endorsement and overwhelming Media Tipsters' support   Singapore Nap selects : number 3 Damo ( X2) Next Singapore Nap 31 August 2012 Supplied in Singapore by Patrick Khoo

ow the chances are slim indeed !) to do a Speed Map since non of the race books are willing to do it to the standards set by the HKGJC website featuring "Speed Power". If Al's Knight jumps in the 1st 3 then the urgency is less and I am willing to settle 

 

 

STARSTATZ RACING 26 AUGUST 2012

My research has been adequate but my decision making is a little rushed. Be cautious in early lower class races tagged with 1 *.
My selections are :-
RACE 1 *2-11///3-1....2 HAS THE BETTER HR AND TRACK FORM BUT 11 HAS BETTER SECTIONALS
RACE 2 *1-2/6-10....1 HAS BETTER HR/SECT TIMES COMPARED TO 2....2 HAS BEST SF
AND SLOW PACE RACE WILL SUIT 2 WHO IS A FRONT RUNNING TYPE AND WILL JUMP 2ND BEST BUT 1 WILL JUMP 3RD AS ON PACE RUNNER
RACE 3 *5-1/9-6
RACE 4  *3-8/2-4
RACE 5** 2-7/11-1 ..... 11 HAS BETTER HR/SF/SECT TIMES THAN 7-2-1 DESPITE WIDE BARRIER DRAW BUT CONDITION AVERAGE ...2 IN GOOD CONDITION
RACE 6 *3-7/8-6 ...7 IS .LONGSHOT  ....HAS TRAVELLED WIDE IN RECENT RUNS... BUT CONDITION AVERRAGE ONLY....OPEN RACE...CAN PLAY  3.
RACE 7  *7-2/6-1...FAST PACE SUITS 7
RACE 8 ***3-1/7-8-9-6-10....CAN COVER  1 ON DUTCH BETTING....SEE REPLICATION POST FOR BETTING ADVICE IN DETAIL...
RACE 9 **8-7/10-5
RACE 10 ** 6-9/1-7....LONGSHOT OF THE NIGHT
RACE 11....***9-3/4-6....BEST RECENT HR WITH BEST SECT. TIMES...3 HAS BEST SF IN THE FIELD WITH DECENT HR....BEST BET OF THE DAY

STARSTATZ RACING 24 AUGUST 2012

My preparation has been adequate today and I should close the gap on the leaders despite tipping a longshot and value bet at good odds! If you do not fancy my 1st pick do consider my 2nd pick as an alternative.
My selections are:-
RACE 1 **3-5/1-8
RACE 2 **5-7/9-3...GOOD BET DUE SOLID TRACK WORK FORM....AS RECOMMENDED BY TRACKWATCHER
RACE 3 ***6-4/3-2....BEST LONGSHOT OF THE DAY WITH BEST HANDICAP....BEST SPEED FIGURE...BEST SECTIONAL TIMES....ONE OF 2 FRONT RUNNERS IN SLOW PACE RACE....WITH ROOKIE RIDER ONLY NEGATIVE....TRAINING WELL
RACE 4  ***9-7/1-10....BEST BET OF THE DAY
RACE 5   **3-5/2-7
RACE 6  **1-6/2-3....1 HAS BEST CLASS AND TRACKWORK STAR BUT 6 HAS GOOD OLD HANDICAP AND BEST SECT . TIMES IN RACE AND CAN CONSIDER A COVER BET
RACE 7   * 5-1/3-4...OPEN RACE
RACE 8  ***3-2/5-4-10-1-8...PLEASE NOTE CHANGE IN ORDER OF SELECTIONS FROM SINGAPORE NAP....BEST VALUE FORECAST OF THE NIGHT  3#2 AS I EXPECT 3 AND 4 TO CARRY FAVOURITISM.....TRAINER LESLIE KHOO HAS GRANTED AN INTERVIEW IN THE STRAITS TIMES.....MY SURNAME SAKE SELDOM GIVES WINNING INTERVIEWS AS TRAINERS IN SINGAPORE ARE A RETICENT AND SHY LOT SELDOM WANTING TO HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCES OF THEIR HORSES....DESPITE NICEONE HAVING A GOOD STRIKE RATE I HAVE A FEELING NICEONE WILL BE NOT SO NICE (PARDON THE PUN) AND PROBABLY NOT MAKE THE TOP 3 AND RATE 3RD SPOT FOR HIM AT BEST ALTHOUGH HE IS LIKELY TO BE THE 2ND FAVOURITE. I HOPE HE CAN BE THE MARKET FAVOURITE SO THAT THE VALUE OF 3 GOES UP AS WELL AS THE VALUE OF MY FORECAST/PLACE FORECAST PLAY. I RECOMMEND A BIG BET ON 3#5-2....FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS ...HANDICAP RATINGS....SPEED FIGURES AND SECTIONAL TIMES CHECK OUT MY POSTING ON WWW.7NAPS.COM
RACE 9  ***13-9/1-5....BEST VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT ....NOT NOTICED BY MOST TIPSTERS AND SNEAKING UNDER THE RADAR AS AN EMERGENCY ACCEPTOR WITH THE SCRATCHING OF VAYA CONDIOS....HAS HIGH HANDICAP RATINGS EVEN WITH HIS LAST START FAILURE AT 1200M....HAS MESSED AROUND TO SHOW WEAKNESS IN INAPPROPRIATE SHORT DISTANCE RACES.....STEPPING UP TO FORTE DISTANCE AS HE HAS WON AT 1600M IN ARGENTINA....SUGGEST PLAY A BIG VALUE FORECAST WITH FULL TOSS OR IF YOU CAN AFFORD A BIG BUDGET PLAY 13-9/13-9/FIELD OR SELECTED HORSES WITHIN YOUR BUDGET.
GOOD LUCK!

REPLICATION OF POST ON SINGAPORE NAP - 19 AUGUST 2012

 I missed the posting dateline on Singapore Nap but I shall count the selection for the Strike Rate Challenge. If it is not posted on the 7naps blog it shall not count in the blog tally but will count if posted.
Singapore Nap 19 Aug 2012

Mr Big

Race 10 Woodlands Handicap - Singapore Group 3

1200M Polytrack

Stakes $200,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Singapore Nap had another 2nd to go 33 wins/16 placings from 70 selections to be on 47.14% strike rate while Starstatz Racing kept pace with Andrew Frost who had the same score of 2 wins to remain 3rd in the full card challenge with 199 wins from 649 selections (30.66%) to be adrift of Andrew Frost by a large margin of 14 wins with 213 wins from maximum for a 32.82% strike rate

PREVIEW OF RACE

This race is a rematch between Yin Xin (YX) and Mr Big(MB) for a difference of a half length loss offset by a 1.5 kg(roughly a one length difference in handicap) compensation in weight carry. I am wary of the "Magic of Moreira" factor and the fact that this time MB is drawn outside of YX but the pace will be good with 3 front runners in 2-3-5 to lead the way. A handicapping maxim to consider is that the beaten horse has tried his best while the winner can still improve. With this in mind I have not made MB a special (X2) bet although I reckon the 2 protagonists will fight it out again but this time it is MB who will now stalk YX.!

The best handicap in this race belongs to Better Be The One at HR 115.5 but it was done at 1000M and BBTO does not have the other factors ike SF and sectionals to support his credentials. Next in handicap is Speedy Cat at HR114.5 but he seems to prefer a longer distance and does not seem as classy as the leading duo but nevertheless is still a threat especially if the pace is fast and furious early with a superior HR/SF and sectionals compared to my pick MB at SF 1:10.21 and sectionals at 47.346 compared to MB at HR 104.12.....SF 1:10.723 and sectionals at 47.369. YX is now at HR111.5....SF 1:10.87 sectionals at 48.056..

In order my selections are 3-2-8-1-5-6-7. I suggest a large forecast bet on 3#2-8 and to use 3#2-8/2-8-1-5-6-7/2-8-1-5-6-7. If cautious you can do a single cover bet on 2-8#3/2-8-1-5-6-7/2-8-1-5-6-7. Play a medium bet on MB on win/place. I suggest a $2 multiple bet on direct trio for 2-3-8 should ensure a value return despite the small returns

STARSTATZ RACING 19 AUGUST 2012

My research has been thorough including compilation of sectional times and I should be able to break
my lean spell and run up a cricket score and close the gap on the leaders. The 1st favourites and 2nd favourites will do well today. I am providing 7 selections in order today for your exotic bet plays..Do consider my 2nd picks if the favourites are not to your liking.My selections are:-
R1  **2-9/4-6-10-1-5
R2  **4-1/6--2-5-10-3
R3 **4-2/6-11-12-5-3
R4  **9-3/5-2-7-6-1
R5  ***2-4/5-1-7-9-8
R6  *1-4/3-2-10-9-7....VALUE BET
R7  ***10-1/8-6-2-4-3
R8  *8-3/6-1-5-11-9
R9  ***6-7/10-9-1-4-3
R10  ***3-2/8-1-5-6-7....UPGRADED TO 3 ***STARS FROM SINGAPORE NAP
R11  *1-4/2-5-6-12-8
R12  **5-1/2-3-4-11-10

STARSTATZ RACING 17 AUGUST 2012

Moreira will have his fair share of winners but look out for some twists and turns early on. The later races marked 3*** are better plays.
R1 * 6-7/9-3...samurai kid might do better than Moreira's ride
R2  ** 4-3/9-8....value bet.....good horse but forgotten and out favour jockey saimee on board....might surprise
R3  **8-10-/1-2...GOOD HANDICAP AND DRAWN WELL DESPITE NEGATIVE FAST PACE
R4  **6-3/4-2 ....LONGSHOT OF THE NIGHT
R5 4-1/3-8..... GROUP 3 WINNER OVERSEAS...VERY FAST PACE WILL SUIT HIS OFF PACE STYLE
R6  *4-1/6-7....RUNS WELL 1ST UP
R7   ***6-5/7-1-4-9-8....BEST BET AND BEST QUARTET
R8  *2-7/1-11
R9  ***9-11/8-5...BEST VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT ...BEST FORECAST....BOTH 9 AND 11 ARE DESTINED FOR CLASS 1....IGNORE LAST RUN AS HE RAN ONLY AFTER 7 DAY REST AND THE FURIOUS PACE WAS HIS UNDOING. A  SLOW PACE WITH 11 INSIDE HIM WILL SUIT BETTER. 9 'S DAM HAS BETTER CREDENTIALS DUE HALF SISTER TO GROUP 3 WINNER
R10 ***1-7/9-8 ...GOOD BET WITH BEST CLASS AND BEST SF....CAN CONSIDER COVER  ON 7 AND FORECAST ON 7 AS ONLY SERIOUS THREAT

STARSTATZ RACING 12 AUGUST 2012

Today's races are tough and most favourites will fail but my preparation is thorough and I hope to do well and close the gap on the leaders.....4 wins look par for the course . The pace in most of the races is very slow or slow today with the exception of Race 7 (fast)and Race 11(very fast) so generally look for front runners and on pace runners. My selection order in Race 7 is slightly different from Singapore Nap as I have additional information on the form of  horses! I HAVE INCLUDED 7 HORSE SELECTIONS IN ORDER OF MERIT TO HELP YOU WITH A SHORTLIST WHEN PLAYING THE EXOTIC BETS!
R1   *9-8/1-3-7-10-2
R2  **2-6/11-1-3-10-4
R3  *3-5/4-8-1-2-11
R4  **2-7/11-3-6-1-10
R5  *4-3/7-8-1-5-2.....4 IS BEST LONGSHOT OF THE DAY WITH BEST SF OVER 1900M AND FAIR HANDICAP....CAN CONSIDER COVER ON 2 BUT QUESTION MARK ON FORM DUE VET SCRATCHING PREVIOUSLY....2 WON 2015M IN AUSTRALIA BEFORE...SO CAN COVER
R6  *9-8/7-6-11-1-2
R7***1-4/2-5-3-6.....BEST BET....BEST QUARTET OF THE DAY....FAST PACE RACE BUT 1 WILL DO WELL WITH A RAILS RUN AND CNDITIONS/TERMS OF THE RACE WILL SUIT THE SMALLER SADDLECLOTH NUMBERS
R8  ***5-1/2-6-3-7-9....BEST VALUE BET
R9  ***3-7/4-2-10-1-6
R10   **4-1/8-2-7-3-6
R11  **2-5/7-6-11-4-8....5 AND 7 HAVE BETTER HANDICAP BUT VERY FAST PACE WILL SUIT 2'S OFF PACE STYLE

STARSTATZ RACING 10 AUGUST 2012

TODAY IS A TOUGH DAY FOR HIGH SCORES BUT i HAVE DONE ADEQUATE RESEARCH TO BE ABLE TO CLOSE THE GAP ON THE LEADERS BUT DO START CAUTIOUSLY EXCEPT FOR THE 3 ***STAR TAGGED RACES.
MOREIRA AND LAXON AND BURRIDGE (NOT NECESSARILY TOGETHER) WILL DO WELL TODAY.
RACE 1 **2-1/7-6
RACE 2 **6-8/3-4
RACE 3 *7-2/11-12
RACE 4  *2-1/5-6....BEST VALUE BET...SINCE 1 WILL BE THE HOT FAVOURITE...SUGGEST BOX 2-1-5  FOR FCT/PFT
RACE 5 **6-10/9-5....BEST FORECAST/.PFT OF THE NIGHT...BOX 6#10-9
RACE 6 **1-10/5-3-4
RACE 7  *4-5/7-3....BEST LONGSHOT OF THE NIGHT
RACE 8   **5-6/9-1...GOOD  VALUE BET SINCE STABLEMATE 9 WILL BE THE ODDS ON FAVOURITE
RACE 9   ***5-12/11-8-13-3-1....BEST BET OF THE NIGHT ...BEST QUARTET

STARSTATZ RACING 05 AUGUST 2012

MY PREPARATION IS GOOD BUT THE RACES ARE TRICKY....I'LL BE HAPPY IF I CAN POST 4 WINS ON THE BOARD.
MY SELECTIONS :-
R1   *8-7/4-9
R2   **10-4/1-8
R3   **1-4/3-7
R4   **4-12/9-3
R5   *7-13/3-8
R6   ***1-2/4-8-6...BEST DIRECT QUARTET
R7   *1-8/2-5...MOST OPEN RACE OF THE DAY
R8   *5-4/11-1....BEST LONGSHOT OF THE DAY
R9   **7-8/3-10
R10   ***3-4/1-5-6-2...BEST FORECAST/ QUARTET OF THE DAY....BEST BET OF THE DAY
R11   ***4-1/9-2 BEST VALUE FORECAST OF THE DAY

REPLICATION OF POST ON SINGAPORE NAP 03 AUGUST 2012

if not posted on my blog it shall not count in my blog tally but i shall count it in my official strike rate  challenge tally for singapore nap

Singapore Nap 03 August 2012

Speedy Cat (to replace Emerald Hill which was scratched)             

Race 8 Class 2

1200M Polytrack

Stakes $95,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Singapore Nap scores big on a modest budget on all fronts in Race 9 on 29 July when Chase Me won the Chairman's Trophy. I tipped 5-1-3-2 and the result was 5-3-1-2. The advice given was to play big on Chase Me if track was wet and downgrade to 2 ** if going was good. The forecast/pft paid the maximum based on 5#1-3 (using 1-3 as key horses ( forecast paid $9 and the pft paid $9 and $7). The tierce of $43 could have been struck using only a $4 outlay (using 1-3 as key horses on the 2nd line ie 5#1-3) or $20 outlay (using 5 as lone banker and 1-3 as key horses on the 2nd line ie 5#1-3/1-3-2-7-13-10).Of course if you had used 5 as the lone banker and all the remaining 6 horses on the remaining lines  your investment of $60 would have lost. In a similar manner the quadro of $34 could have been struck with just a $2 direct investment with multiple tickets for a huge profit. The best value for money returns was the quartet of $557 could have been struck if advice on 5 as lone banker and 1-3 as key horses on the 2nd line ie 5#1-3/1-3-2/1-3-2 ($8) or 5#1-3/1-3-2-7-13-10/1-3-2-7-13-10 ($80) and if you had a big budget and not used the key horses and used 5 as lone banker and boxed the remiaining 5 selections your investment of $240 would still have shown a modest profit. We have won and lost on our quartet play but we have consistently shown with our superior methodology of handicap ratings and sectional times and various other factors we have managed to find value for our readers on a consistent basis through the exotic bets even though Chase Me was of poor value this time at $13 compared to our Emirates Derby winning dividend of $38 when we tipped him to win.

We failed miserably with our pick on Super Kenny but watch him as he rises to Class 1 in slow pace or medium pace races(or even good if the handicap is in favour. The expected good to fast pace turned out to be fast which led to his undoing and he ended best among the front runners as the top 4 were all off the pace. I have a bugbear issue to bring to the attention of STC . The winner Rising Empire ran in an on pace style in his 1st 2 starts but changed to the off pace style in his penultimate and last start when he won the Magic Millions Juvenile Championship(MMJC)....why were pre-race announcements not made on his planned change in running style or is this rule no more in place. With hindsight Rising Empire had the best HR rating of 60.66 compared to Super Kenny at 57.16 but this rating was achieved on the poly track over 1000M carrying 57kg and dropped to 56kg on MMJC day. The pace turned out fast which helped Rising Empire and with a 1.5 to 2 rating points or lengths offset for his wide barrier draw Rising Empire had the credentials required although his SF and sectional times on 1200M were inferior to Super Kenny and that if where I erred. My apologies and I hope to do be more careful and consider all factors in future!

Singapore Nap (admittedly in an unfair method of comparison) is sauntering out in front in the strike rate challenge with 33 wins/12 placings from 65 selections for a 50.77% strike rate(prove that one can show a profit in racing if we pick our races) while Andrew Frost and Winner 21 are in the joint lead in the full card challege with 195 wins from 599 selections for an impressive 32.55% strike rate while Starstatz managed to trim the lead by 1 win and is now a poor 3rd on 185 wins(10 wins off the pace) from maximum for a 30.05% strike rate. According to my Mandarin readers Racing Guide and Ma Hui are the only other Media Tipsters to hover above the 30% range among Media Tipsters and surprisingly Brian Miller (my vote for most improved Tipster of the season) is the best among the rest who failed to make the 30% cut at 179 wins from maximum for a 29.88% strike rate. I do not expect to do well on starstatz racing on Friday as my research has been patchy(but there are still some gems like El Padrino and True North , Jeram Glory and Pioneer 7 to be picked up )but I expect to get at least one winner from the weekend on Singapore Nap.

PREVIEW OF RACE

The pace should be fast with 9-4-7-8-5 taking the lead . With the witdrawal of speedsters My Son and Emerald Hill the pace should revert to good. If the pace is hot or very fast then I expect Speedy Cat and Emblessed to overwhelm the early leaders in the home straight. Speedy Cat is the best bargain buy this year costing a modest NZ$5k ( owner laughing all the way to the bank with SID$281,480 in the bag. Although Speedy Cat has recorded the best SF (1:10.71 at lower weight 54.5kg ) at this distance his handicap rating and adjusted SF(to weight carried today are not in his favour although he has been flying in his track work) and moreover his sectional times are inferior to Cash Dot Com (CDC) but I do fear the 2 factors in his favour .... the expected good pace will make it even chances for both horses but CDC has the better barrier draw) the 1st factor is the astute Champion jockey on board and the 2nd is that Speedy Cat has the better win strike rate. His HR of 82.5 and SF of 1:11.098 and sectional times of 47.938(his closing 400M is faster than CDC by 0.2 seconds and he would do well if the pace turns out to be fast) compared to CDC at HR 86 ....SF 1:10.803 and sectional times at 47.868. However despite all these factors the track report has indicated the feline is in top form and casts doubts on the form of CDC.

In order my selections are 1-4-6-7-9-10-5. if you are on a tight budget I suggest to leave out 10-5 as any of the top 5 can hit the 2nd forecast spot depending on the pace. If the pace is good 4-7 will do well and if the pace is hot then 1-6 will do well.

Another method of analysing is strike rate and Speedy Cat has an impressive 62.5% but CDC has a 27.77% strike rate so I suggest a small bet on for the forecast /place forecast on 1#4-6-7 .I suggest to use a double banker of 1-4 on the 1st line and 1-4-6-7as the key horses on the 2nd line as well for the exotics but a safe and value bet is 4-1#4-1-6-7-9 for the tierce and quartet.I do fear the Moreira factor and the anecdote that he does give his ride a few extra lengths . I suggest a medium bet on Speedy Cat as the wide barrier draw is a damper to his chances and the pace may not be fast enough to use his best 400M finishing burst to good effect

Singapore Nap selects: number 1 Speedy CAT

Next Singapore Nap 05 August 2012

Supplied In Singapore by Patrick Khoo

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STARSTATZ RACING 03 AUGUST 2012

Today's card may appear easy in some races but do not expect high scores as I fancy there are a couple of upsets in store today. Moreira should get his usual quota  but some of his horses may run a place instead but they are mainly good for the exotics ...especially the forecast despite running 2nd.
My preparation has only been fair and I will be happy I can keep the leaders within my  sights. Be cautious in the early races. On raink soaked polytrack surface the ground is firmer and front runners and on pace runners have a slight advantage especially in slow pace races
R1   **10-1/12-8
R2   ***8-5/1-4
R3   *9-6/84....RACE AMONG WEAK HORSES
R4   *2-6/1-9.
R5   ***2-8/5-1...BEST CLASS HORSE IN RACE DUE DUBAI EXPLOITS
R6   *8-4/1-5 BEST VALUE FORECAST OF THE NIGHT ...CONSIDER 8-4/8-4/FIELD FOR TIERCE....THE MAGIC MAESTRO OF MOREIRA VS A ROOKIE ON A WELL HANDICAPPED HORSE RUNNING AT FORTE DISTANCE ON FAVOURED POLY SURFACE DUE U.S.A SIRE FALTAAT
R7   **4-3/2-6...VALUE BET OF THE NIGHT
R8   **1-4/ 6-7-9-10-5...BEST QUARTET PLAY OF THE NIGHT...CONCENTRATE ON TOP 5 HORSES IF ON A BUDGET
R9   *** 2-11/8-5...BEST BET OF THE NIGHT