REPLICATION OF POST ON SINGAPORE NAP 03 AUGUST 2012

if not posted on my blog it shall not count in my blog tally but i shall count it in my official strike rate  challenge tally for singapore nap

Singapore Nap 03 August 2012

Speedy Cat (to replace Emerald Hill which was scratched)             

Race 8 Class 2

1200M Polytrack

Stakes $95,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Singapore Nap scores big on a modest budget on all fronts in Race 9 on 29 July when Chase Me won the Chairman's Trophy. I tipped 5-1-3-2 and the result was 5-3-1-2. The advice given was to play big on Chase Me if track was wet and downgrade to 2 ** if going was good. The forecast/pft paid the maximum based on 5#1-3 (using 1-3 as key horses ( forecast paid $9 and the pft paid $9 and $7). The tierce of $43 could have been struck using only a $4 outlay (using 1-3 as key horses on the 2nd line ie 5#1-3) or $20 outlay (using 5 as lone banker and 1-3 as key horses on the 2nd line ie 5#1-3/1-3-2-7-13-10).Of course if you had used 5 as the lone banker and all the remaining 6 horses on the remaining lines  your investment of $60 would have lost. In a similar manner the quadro of $34 could have been struck with just a $2 direct investment with multiple tickets for a huge profit. The best value for money returns was the quartet of $557 could have been struck if advice on 5 as lone banker and 1-3 as key horses on the 2nd line ie 5#1-3/1-3-2/1-3-2 ($8) or 5#1-3/1-3-2-7-13-10/1-3-2-7-13-10 ($80) and if you had a big budget and not used the key horses and used 5 as lone banker and boxed the remiaining 5 selections your investment of $240 would still have shown a modest profit. We have won and lost on our quartet play but we have consistently shown with our superior methodology of handicap ratings and sectional times and various other factors we have managed to find value for our readers on a consistent basis through the exotic bets even though Chase Me was of poor value this time at $13 compared to our Emirates Derby winning dividend of $38 when we tipped him to win.

We failed miserably with our pick on Super Kenny but watch him as he rises to Class 1 in slow pace or medium pace races(or even good if the handicap is in favour. The expected good to fast pace turned out to be fast which led to his undoing and he ended best among the front runners as the top 4 were all off the pace. I have a bugbear issue to bring to the attention of STC . The winner Rising Empire ran in an on pace style in his 1st 2 starts but changed to the off pace style in his penultimate and last start when he won the Magic Millions Juvenile Championship(MMJC)....why were pre-race announcements not made on his planned change in running style or is this rule no more in place. With hindsight Rising Empire had the best HR rating of 60.66 compared to Super Kenny at 57.16 but this rating was achieved on the poly track over 1000M carrying 57kg and dropped to 56kg on MMJC day. The pace turned out fast which helped Rising Empire and with a 1.5 to 2 rating points or lengths offset for his wide barrier draw Rising Empire had the credentials required although his SF and sectional times on 1200M were inferior to Super Kenny and that if where I erred. My apologies and I hope to do be more careful and consider all factors in future!

Singapore Nap (admittedly in an unfair method of comparison) is sauntering out in front in the strike rate challenge with 33 wins/12 placings from 65 selections for a 50.77% strike rate(prove that one can show a profit in racing if we pick our races) while Andrew Frost and Winner 21 are in the joint lead in the full card challege with 195 wins from 599 selections for an impressive 32.55% strike rate while Starstatz managed to trim the lead by 1 win and is now a poor 3rd on 185 wins(10 wins off the pace) from maximum for a 30.05% strike rate. According to my Mandarin readers Racing Guide and Ma Hui are the only other Media Tipsters to hover above the 30% range among Media Tipsters and surprisingly Brian Miller (my vote for most improved Tipster of the season) is the best among the rest who failed to make the 30% cut at 179 wins from maximum for a 29.88% strike rate. I do not expect to do well on starstatz racing on Friday as my research has been patchy(but there are still some gems like El Padrino and True North , Jeram Glory and Pioneer 7 to be picked up )but I expect to get at least one winner from the weekend on Singapore Nap.

PREVIEW OF RACE

The pace should be fast with 9-4-7-8-5 taking the lead . With the witdrawal of speedsters My Son and Emerald Hill the pace should revert to good. If the pace is hot or very fast then I expect Speedy Cat and Emblessed to overwhelm the early leaders in the home straight. Speedy Cat is the best bargain buy this year costing a modest NZ$5k ( owner laughing all the way to the bank with SID$281,480 in the bag. Although Speedy Cat has recorded the best SF (1:10.71 at lower weight 54.5kg ) at this distance his handicap rating and adjusted SF(to weight carried today are not in his favour although he has been flying in his track work) and moreover his sectional times are inferior to Cash Dot Com (CDC) but I do fear the 2 factors in his favour .... the expected good pace will make it even chances for both horses but CDC has the better barrier draw) the 1st factor is the astute Champion jockey on board and the 2nd is that Speedy Cat has the better win strike rate. His HR of 82.5 and SF of 1:11.098 and sectional times of 47.938(his closing 400M is faster than CDC by 0.2 seconds and he would do well if the pace turns out to be fast) compared to CDC at HR 86 ....SF 1:10.803 and sectional times at 47.868. However despite all these factors the track report has indicated the feline is in top form and casts doubts on the form of CDC.

In order my selections are 1-4-6-7-9-10-5. if you are on a tight budget I suggest to leave out 10-5 as any of the top 5 can hit the 2nd forecast spot depending on the pace. If the pace is good 4-7 will do well and if the pace is hot then 1-6 will do well.

Another method of analysing is strike rate and Speedy Cat has an impressive 62.5% but CDC has a 27.77% strike rate so I suggest a small bet on for the forecast /place forecast on 1#4-6-7 .I suggest to use a double banker of 1-4 on the 1st line and 1-4-6-7as the key horses on the 2nd line as well for the exotics but a safe and value bet is 4-1#4-1-6-7-9 for the tierce and quartet.I do fear the Moreira factor and the anecdote that he does give his ride a few extra lengths . I suggest a medium bet on Speedy Cat as the wide barrier draw is a damper to his chances and the pace may not be fast enough to use his best 400M finishing burst to good effect

Singapore Nap selects: number 1 Speedy CAT

Next Singapore Nap 05 August 2012

Supplied In Singapore by Patrick Khoo

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