Singapore Racing
27 January 2013
Race 7 Class 3
1200M Polytrack
Stakes 75,000
STARSTATZ RACING PICKS: **DEEP POCKETS
IIZI: **ALWAYS CERTAIN
TW (TRACKWATCHER) PICKS : ** DEEP POCKETS....FORM 3-2-1-6-5-4-9
VB (VALUE BET ) PICKS: **GHOZI
LS (LONGSHOT PICKS) **ALWAYS CERTAIN
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing continued with their poor run and are on 1 win / 3 placings from 8 selections for a 12.5%.VB ( Value Bet) was one of the few Media Tipsters who got it right for the selection of Natural Nice to score his 1st win and showing a return of $25 from investment of $40.With most of the tipsters scoring blanks the top of the table remains relaively unchanged with LS (longshot) still on 3 wins and a host of tipsters on 2 wins in the chasing pack but VB has broken the ice with its 1st win!
PREVIEW OF RACE
The pace of the race will be good with 3 front runners(10-8-9) leading the way . The big race challenge has seen a string of favourites biting the dust and there is a strong danger of it happening again if Always Certain is at its best.In order my selections are 3-2-1-9-6-5-4. I suggest using 3#2#1 for forecast place forecast but recommend the use of 2 bankers on the 1st line and the top 3 selections on the 2nd line..I suggest a medium bet on 3 and a cover bet on 2 .If the going is soft go for 3 solidly but double check the bodyweight of 2 if the going is yielding before deciding! If the going is good or yielding and his body weight is within range 2 is a clear and present danger to 2 as 2 if in form is superior in HR/SF and sectionals as well.
PLEASE NOTE MY LAST 2 SELECTIONS DIFFER FROM SINGAPORE AS i AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ASSESSMENT OF FORM BY MY IN-HOUSE TRACK WATCHER.
NO HANDICAP DATA TODAY
27 January 2013
25 January 2013
Singapore Racing
25 January 2013
Race 7 Class 3
1200M Polytrack
Stakes 75,000
STARSTATZ RACING PICKS: ** INDICIO
IIZI PICKS : **WILKINSON
TW (TRACKWATCHER) PICKS : **WILKINSON.....6-10-8-5-3
VB ( VALUE BET ) PICKS : * NATURAL NICE
LS ( LONGSHOT ) PICKS : **NO RESPITE
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Tan Thean Loon deserves the accolades for the fantastic selection on Tenzing to win last Sunday. In the BIG RACE CHALLENGE LS (longshot) is still in the lead with an outright 3 wins and 1 placing with a host of tipsters led by Tan Thean Loon on 2 wins separated by placings. The rest are Ma Chao , Xiu Fang, Zheng Qiang and and Lao Wang with Craig Evans in dead last with a zero score and VB ( value bet) and Jun Ru on joint 2nd last with 2 placings only.
In the full card challenge Xiu Fang sits proudly in front with 28 wins and Tan Thean Loon and Racing Guide are close behind with 26 wins. Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing are on identical scores with one win and 2 placings from 7 selections for a 14.29% strike rate.
The big races so far been a poor harvest so far this season for 1st favourites and I expect Wilkinson to suffer the same fate!
PREVIEW OF RACE
The pace of the race will be good with 3 front runners leading the way (3-7-1) . 9-8-7-6-10 have the best HR but 9 has been out of form for some time and 7 has not done well over 1200M. However 10 has the best sectionals and 8 has the 2nd best sectionals and 6-5 are next in having good sectional times.
In order my selections are 10-8-5-6-3-1-9. Use 10#8-5 for forecast and place forecast for a big bet as I think 6 will run a place at best and has poor value being the hot favourite among media tipsters. Use 8-5 as key horses on the 2nd line if on a budget for the exotics and the remaining 6 selections on all 3 lines if you have a big budget. .Play a medium bet on Indicio for win/place betting. If 10 is to be beaten 8 would be the more likely one rather than 6 especially if the pace is fast!
HANDICAP DATA
will not be providing today due to time constraints
20 January 2013
SINGAPORE RACING 20 JANUARY 2013 - STARSTATZ RACING + 4 OTHER MONICKER TIPSTERS
Singapore Racing
20 January 2013
Race 9 Woodlands Classic Stakes - Group 3
1800M Polytrack
Stakes $150,000
STARSTATZ RACING PICKS :** MAURICE UTRILLO
IIZ1 PICKS : NANDOWRA
TW (TRACKWATCHER ) PICKS : MAURICE UTRILLO .....FORM 3-1-2-4-6
VB (VALUE BET ) PICKS BLACK ICE
LS (LONGSHOT) : LIZARRE
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
In the Big Race Challenge LS((Longshot) is either in a joint lead or is the sole leader with 3 wins and one placing . Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing are on identical score of 1 win and 3 placings from 6 selections for a 16.67% strike rate as Favourites continue to flop badly The human element played a part in Setitup's failure to win with a poor ride compounded by a slow start and by an unwise move by Santana to go 5 wide around the home turn which led to his defeat. There is nothing wrong with the class and a ability of the horse and he should recover his winning streak on his way to Class 1 eventually ( I expect it to be sooner rather than later) . The Stewards should review Santana's ride with a fine tooth comb and look for anything out of the ordinary and assess if a penalty is in order for Setitup's lacklustre jump from the gates which cost him the race. Sometimes races are lost due to poor form or the fact that some horses are better handicapped by the conditions of the race but I truly believe this was not the case on that day! . Let me make this bold prediction to justify my view point.... Setitup will eventually reach Class1 while Man of Substance has by comparison a lack of substance when compared to Setitup and I hope they meet one day soon and Setitup I believe will beat MOS easily even with the same weight disadvantage. I can only console myself that I did mention that MOS had the 2nd best sectionals in the race and that TW (Trackwarcher ) had spotted MOS as one of the top 4 in form horses but I downgraded his chances due to his wide draw. The lesson learnt is that if we have a reliable Trackwatcher it is better to pick from one of the horses in the form line up unless you are confident of your assessment of the longshot in that race.
PREVIEW OF RACE
The conditions of this race are heavily in favour of the top 4 rated horses( especially the top 3 horses) and I believe the quartet will come from 1-2-3-4 with 6 or 10 the most likely to break this stranglehold. Nandowra actually has the best HR of 95.82 ( done at 1600M turf) and the expected slow pace and the services of Moreira will suit him but this is offset by having the worst draw among the 3 top protagonists and the long straight will not suit him . Lizarre actually has a stronger HR than Maurice Utrillo of HR 95.62 compared to to 94.23. In the end I selected MU ( Maurice Utrillo ) because it was Vorster 's pick and the fact that the long straight and the best innermost draw compared to the main challengers. If it rains he also has the best 1800M SF in soft going to boost his winning chanaces. I suggest a medium each way bet on MU. For forecast/place forecast I suggest a big bet on 3#2#1.For exotic bets small budget try 3-2-1/3-1/3-2-1-/3-2-1-4 and for medium budget try 3-2-1/3-2-1/3-2-1-4-6-10/3-2-1-4-6-10. In order my selections are 3-2-1-4-6-10-5.
NO FULL HANDICAP DATA BUT I SHALL PROVIDE HR FIGURES FOR TOP 7 CONTENDERS
1)NANDOWRA : HR 95.82( EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1600M TURF)
2) LIZARRE ; HR 95.62
3) MAURICE UTRILLO : HR 94.23
4) BLACK ICE ; HR 91.93
5) TENZING :HR 89.71
6) DUJARDIN : HR 91.71
10) GOODPACK : HR 90.94
20 January 2013
Race 9 Woodlands Classic Stakes - Group 3
1800M Polytrack
Stakes $150,000
STARSTATZ RACING PICKS :** MAURICE UTRILLO
IIZ1 PICKS : NANDOWRA
TW (TRACKWATCHER ) PICKS : MAURICE UTRILLO .....FORM 3-1-2-4-6
VB (VALUE BET ) PICKS BLACK ICE
LS (LONGSHOT) : LIZARRE
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
In the Big Race Challenge LS((Longshot) is either in a joint lead or is the sole leader with 3 wins and one placing . Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing are on identical score of 1 win and 3 placings from 6 selections for a 16.67% strike rate as Favourites continue to flop badly The human element played a part in Setitup's failure to win with a poor ride compounded by a slow start and by an unwise move by Santana to go 5 wide around the home turn which led to his defeat. There is nothing wrong with the class and a ability of the horse and he should recover his winning streak on his way to Class 1 eventually ( I expect it to be sooner rather than later) . The Stewards should review Santana's ride with a fine tooth comb and look for anything out of the ordinary and assess if a penalty is in order for Setitup's lacklustre jump from the gates which cost him the race. Sometimes races are lost due to poor form or the fact that some horses are better handicapped by the conditions of the race but I truly believe this was not the case on that day! . Let me make this bold prediction to justify my view point.... Setitup will eventually reach Class1 while Man of Substance has by comparison a lack of substance when compared to Setitup and I hope they meet one day soon and Setitup I believe will beat MOS easily even with the same weight disadvantage. I can only console myself that I did mention that MOS had the 2nd best sectionals in the race and that TW (Trackwarcher ) had spotted MOS as one of the top 4 in form horses but I downgraded his chances due to his wide draw. The lesson learnt is that if we have a reliable Trackwatcher it is better to pick from one of the horses in the form line up unless you are confident of your assessment of the longshot in that race.
PREVIEW OF RACE
The conditions of this race are heavily in favour of the top 4 rated horses( especially the top 3 horses) and I believe the quartet will come from 1-2-3-4 with 6 or 10 the most likely to break this stranglehold. Nandowra actually has the best HR of 95.82 ( done at 1600M turf) and the expected slow pace and the services of Moreira will suit him but this is offset by having the worst draw among the 3 top protagonists and the long straight will not suit him . Lizarre actually has a stronger HR than Maurice Utrillo of HR 95.62 compared to to 94.23. In the end I selected MU ( Maurice Utrillo ) because it was Vorster 's pick and the fact that the long straight and the best innermost draw compared to the main challengers. If it rains he also has the best 1800M SF in soft going to boost his winning chanaces. I suggest a medium each way bet on MU. For forecast/place forecast I suggest a big bet on 3#2#1.For exotic bets small budget try 3-2-1/3-1/3-2-1-/3-2-1-4 and for medium budget try 3-2-1/3-2-1/3-2-1-4-6-10/3-2-1-4-6-10. In order my selections are 3-2-1-4-6-10-5.
NO FULL HANDICAP DATA BUT I SHALL PROVIDE HR FIGURES FOR TOP 7 CONTENDERS
1)NANDOWRA : HR 95.82( EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1600M TURF)
2) LIZARRE ; HR 95.62
3) MAURICE UTRILLO : HR 94.23
4) BLACK ICE ; HR 91.93
5) TENZING :HR 89.71
6) DUJARDIN : HR 91.71
10) GOODPACK : HR 90.94
18 January 2013
SINGAPORE RACING 18 JANUARY 2013 STARSTATZ RACING PLUS 4 OTHER MONICKER TIPS
Singapore Racing
18 January 2013
Race 7 Kranji Stakes C
1200M Polytrack
Stakes $75,000
STARSTATZ RACING : ***SETITUP
IIZI (2ND PICK): **GUIDED LIGHT
TW (TRACKWATCHER) : ***SETITUP....TRACKFORM ***2-4-1-6
VB (VALUE BET ) : ** GUIDED LIGHT....SHOWING RETURN OF $15 FROM $25 INVESTMENT ON PLACE BETS ONLY....NETT LOSS $10
LS (LONGSHOT) : * JERAM GLORY....SHOWING RETURNS OF $58 FROM INVESTMENT OF $25 ON WIN ONLY....NETT PROFIT $33....FRANKLY I EXPECT ON SHEER ABILITY FOR SETITUP TO WIN IN A CANTER BUT I AM OBLIGED TO PICK A DIFFERENT HORSE SELECTION FROM IIZI AND STARSTAZ RACING UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THIS FORMAT AND MY ONLY FLAGSHIP ENTRY IS STARSTATZ RACING
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Singapore and my other flagship entry Starstatz Racing are on an identical score of
1 win/2 placings from 5 selections for a 20% strike rate.For a detailed score check out my other blog on http://www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com/but in summary the outright leader in a temporary lead is LS (longshot) with 3 wins and closely followed with 2 wins by Ma Chao , Xiu Fang, Zheng Qiang and Lao Wang almost by default because Emerald Hill was a course scratching and by format of contest I could not pick Goalkeeper so I went for Speedy Cat whose win was indeed a surprise to me as well . Only Jun Ru and VB are still without a win . However I do expect Craig Evans to lead after Friday's races with a 100% record if Setitup wins as expected!
PREVIEW OF RACE
On ability this is a shoo-in race for Setitup but there is always a fear he may not not saddle up if if his dividends are odds on! Having a 100% record he is the classiest horse in this race despite going up in class and he is the only horse in this race with a sub 48.0 seconds sectionals (actual 25.601/22.181 = 47.782 ...his finishing 400m burst is close to Goal Keeper's time).. Man Of Substance has the 2nd best sectionals in the race but his HR ratings are weaker than both 10 and 9 and I do expect 9 to do well because of his favourable barrier draw and good HR
The pace is expected to be slow with only 2 strong front runners who may have the race to themselves if allowed to dictate the pace and Santana must be careful not to be caught napping and must pressurise them early in the straight! Among the rest Man Of Substance has the 2nd best sectionals in this race. Other than Setitup as a banker the fight for the forecast is wide open and despite the terms of this race favouring the tip weights I am afraid their HR ratings are probably not strong enough to hold out the midliners and the lightweightswho are front runners or on pace runners. In order my selections are 2-1-9-4-6-10-12 ..I suggest a medium bet on 2#1-9 for forecast/place forecast. For those on a budget I suggest a medium bet on 2 as a lone banker and 1-9 as key horses on the 2nd line. For those who have the budget use the remaining 6 horses on the 2nd/3rd and 4th lines
HANDICAP DATA
I am skipping the handicap data at the moment due to family commitments. If time permits I shall give it a try later
18 January 2013
Race 7 Kranji Stakes C
1200M Polytrack
Stakes $75,000
STARSTATZ RACING : ***SETITUP
IIZI (2ND PICK): **GUIDED LIGHT
TW (TRACKWATCHER) : ***SETITUP....TRACKFORM ***2-4-1-6
VB (VALUE BET ) : ** GUIDED LIGHT....SHOWING RETURN OF $15 FROM $25 INVESTMENT ON PLACE BETS ONLY....NETT LOSS $10
LS (LONGSHOT) : * JERAM GLORY....SHOWING RETURNS OF $58 FROM INVESTMENT OF $25 ON WIN ONLY....NETT PROFIT $33....FRANKLY I EXPECT ON SHEER ABILITY FOR SETITUP TO WIN IN A CANTER BUT I AM OBLIGED TO PICK A DIFFERENT HORSE SELECTION FROM IIZI AND STARSTAZ RACING UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THIS FORMAT AND MY ONLY FLAGSHIP ENTRY IS STARSTATZ RACING
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Singapore and my other flagship entry Starstatz Racing are on an identical score of
1 win/2 placings from 5 selections for a 20% strike rate.For a detailed score check out my other blog on http://www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com/but in summary the outright leader in a temporary lead is LS (longshot) with 3 wins and closely followed with 2 wins by Ma Chao , Xiu Fang, Zheng Qiang and Lao Wang almost by default because Emerald Hill was a course scratching and by format of contest I could not pick Goalkeeper so I went for Speedy Cat whose win was indeed a surprise to me as well . Only Jun Ru and VB are still without a win . However I do expect Craig Evans to lead after Friday's races with a 100% record if Setitup wins as expected!
PREVIEW OF RACE
On ability this is a shoo-in race for Setitup but there is always a fear he may not not saddle up if if his dividends are odds on! Having a 100% record he is the classiest horse in this race despite going up in class and he is the only horse in this race with a sub 48.0 seconds sectionals (actual 25.601/22.181 = 47.782 ...his finishing 400m burst is close to Goal Keeper's time).. Man Of Substance has the 2nd best sectionals in the race but his HR ratings are weaker than both 10 and 9 and I do expect 9 to do well because of his favourable barrier draw and good HR
The pace is expected to be slow with only 2 strong front runners who may have the race to themselves if allowed to dictate the pace and Santana must be careful not to be caught napping and must pressurise them early in the straight! Among the rest Man Of Substance has the 2nd best sectionals in this race. Other than Setitup as a banker the fight for the forecast is wide open and despite the terms of this race favouring the tip weights I am afraid their HR ratings are probably not strong enough to hold out the midliners and the lightweightswho are front runners or on pace runners. In order my selections are 2-1-9-4-6-10-12 ..I suggest a medium bet on 2#1-9 for forecast/place forecast. For those on a budget I suggest a medium bet on 2 as a lone banker and 1-9 as key horses on the 2nd line. For those who have the budget use the remaining 6 horses on the 2nd/3rd and 4th lines
HANDICAP DATA
I am skipping the handicap data at the moment due to family commitments. If time permits I shall give it a try later
13 January 2013
SINGAPORE RACING 13 JANUARY 2013 ...SELECTIONS BY STARSTATZ RACING AND 4 OTHER MONICKER TIPS
Singapore Racing
13 January 2013
Race 8 Kranji Stakes A
1200M Polytrack
Stakes $125,000
STARSTATZ RACING PICKS 2) **GOAL KEEPER
IIZI(2ND PICK) PICKS 1) ***CAPTAIN OBVIOUS
TW (TRACK WATCHER )PICKS 6)** GOAL KEEPER....6-2-1-5
VB (VALUE BET) PICKS 1) ***CAPTAIN OBVIOUS
LS(LONGSHOT ) PICKS 2) **SPEEDY CAT SINCE EITHER CAPTAIN OBVIOUS OR GOALKEEPER WILL BE 1ST FAVOURITE AND UNDER THE TERMS OF SELECTION I AM NOT ALLOWED TO SELECT THE FAVOURITE
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
The fast pace allowed Martincho Cat who co-incidentally had a high HR to edge Super Good in the last few strides before the Winning Post.. Singapore Nap and a couple of last seasons leading with 2 wins and 1 placing after 4 selections and LS is a clear 2nd with 2 wins only while Jun Ru and VB(value bet) bring up the tail end with a horde of tipsters in between sitting on a solitary win on Huka Falls. I have made a serious error in my HR calculations mistaking this race for a normal Handicap race when this is a Kranji Stakes A race weher all the horses are running underscaled in comparison to number 1 , Captain Obvious....Goalkeeper by 8.5kg and Emerald Hill by 14.5kg and Cash Dot Dot Com by a heavy 19 kg. This upsets all the HR calculations and will tend to favour the top weights especially number 1.Their HRs are now 1) 116.3 2) 108.7 3) 119.6 (can be ignored because of abysmal form 4) 106.8 5) 108.7 6) 104.7 7) 103.03
PREVIEW OF RACE
Most of the Media Tipsters think this race is between the unbeaten Emerald Hill , the classy Captain Obvious and the unbeaten Poly Track specialist Goalkeeper.Andrew Frost and and a few of the Media Tipsters seem to think that Goalkeeper has gone off the boil as he was a course scratching in his last aborted start.However he did do an impressive trial recently and I am inclined to think (with the support of the eagle eye of Tan Thean Loon) that Goal Keeper will not be an entry for this race if he was not race fit.The Trainer would want him to keep his proud unbeaten record on the Polytrack. With this in mind and a caveat to double check his bodyweight before making a final decision I will make an assumption that all the main contenders are race fit so my decision will be based strictly on their handicap data.The best HR actually belongs to Fighter Jet but his form is abysmal and he has been poor for the last 8 runs. On HR alone Speedy Cat has the next best HR followed by Cash Dot Com .Against this we have the class
of Goal Keeper and Emerald Hill and the obvious(pardon the pun) Dragon like form of Captain Obvious who is reportedly in fine fettle as reported through various track reports by Andrew Frost and the Newpaper and they could well be right. Although the good Captain has won on the Polytrack before I rate him a better wet turf track specialist and I truly believe the younger promising upstarts will expose him to be vulnerable at 59.5kg. In theory Emerald Hill has the 2nd best SF(just 0.15 seconds slower than the projected SF of Cash Dot Com ) but as seen before a projected drop in weight does not mean a horse will travel faster and that unbeaten winning horses like Goal Keeper and Emerald Hill have till today not found their best SF and will likely improve even further when challenged! If Goal Keeper wins today it would highlight the use of sectional times as a serious handicapping tool as on paper Emerald Hill has a better HR and SF than Goal Keeper but Goal Keeper has superior sectionals by 0,326 seconds (and Goal Keeper has an astonishing closing sectional of 22.15 seconds for the last 400M ....a truly amazing finishing burst comparable to Rocket Man's benchmark figures. I would rule out Fighter Jet from all exotic bet combinations and if on a budget I would eliminate Excavator as well.That would leave me with in order 2-1-5-7. I am quietly confident that Goal Keeper would maintain his unbeaten status on Polytracks and that he would at least run a place so a medium to big bet on win/place is in order. In addition I would place a big bet on 2#1 for forecast I suggest the main bet for tierce/quartet betting should be 2-1/2-1/5-7/5-7. . I expect the pace to be good with 2 front runners (2-7)but if they do a fast and furious pace Captain Obvious will come to the fore and upset the 2 race favourites. I HAVE AMMENDED MY POSITION FROM THE STANCE I TOOK ON SINGAPORE NAP AND 1 IS NOW A CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER AND HIS HR ADVANTAGE LOOKS OMINOUS FOR THE REST BUT I AM STUBBORNLY STICKING TO GOALKEEPER WHICH MAY BE MY UNDOING. I HAVE NOW DECIDED TO UPGRADE 1 TO 2ND PICK ABOVE 6 AND FOR THE EXOTICS I WILL USE 2 BANKERS (2 AND 1 ) AND CONCENTRATE ON ONLY 2-1-5-7 WITH THE CORRECT ORDER THE ONLY QUESTION MARK? PERFECT RACE TO SHOWCASE HANDICAPPING THEORIES ON WHICH FACTOR IS IMPORTANT IN ANALYSING RACES
I APOLOGISE FOR THE HR CALCULATIONS BEING SKEWED ON SINGAPORE NAP AND HAVE PROVIDED THE CORRECT HR IN THE BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOVE
REMAINING HANDICAP DATA
1) CAPTAIN OBVIOUS : FORM ***
SF 1:11.857 (WEAK HR FIGURES IN CONTRAST TO BEST HR FIGURES IN THE FIELD....SECTIONALS 24.462/24.332=48.794...IF HE WINS IT CONFIRMS THE THEORY THAT HR IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HANDICAP DATA. PROBABLY THE HORSE TO BEAT BASED ON HR RATINGS.....CLASSY TYPE WITH OVERSEAS WIN CREDENTIALS AND STRONGLY ADVANTAGED BY THE HANDICAP TERMS IN THIS RACE
2) GOALKEEPER : FORM ***
SF 1:10.86 .....SECTIONALS 25.31/22.15= 47.46 (BEST SECTIONALS)....SHOWCASE EXAMPLE ON HOW SECTIONALS MIGHT BE THE KEY WHEN OTHER HORSES HAVE SUPERIOR HR (1) AND SUPERIOR SF(6)....2 MAY LOSE TO 1 ON HR BUT HE IS LIKELY TO BEAT 6 TO PROVE THAT JUDICIOUS USE OF SECTIONALS TO UNCOVER A MORE CLASSY HORSE IN THE FACE OF SUPERIOR SPEED FIGURES
3) FIGHTER JET : FORM XXX
4) EXCAVATOR : FORM *
SF 1;11.287 ....SECTIONALS 24.336/24.056=48.392
5) SPEEDY CAT : FORM **
SF 1:10.72 ...SECTIONALS.....24.152/23.572=47.724....2ND BEST SECTIONALS....STRONG CASE FOR SECTIONALS IF GOALKEEPER WINS AND HE RUNS 2ND
6) EMERALD HILL : FORM ***.....SCRATCHED
SF1:10.72 ...SECTIONALS 24.433/23.353= 47.786....2ND BEST SF IN THIS FIELD...CLASSY TYPE
7) CASH DOT COM : FORM **
SF 1:10.57 ...SECTIONALS 23.897/23.95 = 47.847....STRONG CASE TO PROVE THAT HORSES ENJOYING DROP IN HANDICAP WEIGHT WILL NOT RUN FASTER DESPITE HAVING BEST PROJECTED SF IN THIS RACE...WILL BE SURPRISED IF HE GATECRASHES THE TOP 4 SPOTS DESPITE HIS SUPPOSEDLY SUPERIOR SPEED....WILL CONFIRM THE HYPE SURROUNDING SPEED FIGURES BEING LESS IMPORTANT AS A HANDICAPPING TOOL
13 January 2013
Race 8 Kranji Stakes A
1200M Polytrack
Stakes $125,000
STARSTATZ RACING PICKS 2) **GOAL KEEPER
IIZI(2ND PICK) PICKS 1) ***CAPTAIN OBVIOUS
TW (TRACK WATCHER )PICKS 6)** GOAL KEEPER....6-2-1-5
VB (VALUE BET) PICKS 1) ***CAPTAIN OBVIOUS
LS(LONGSHOT ) PICKS 2) **SPEEDY CAT SINCE EITHER CAPTAIN OBVIOUS OR GOALKEEPER WILL BE 1ST FAVOURITE AND UNDER THE TERMS OF SELECTION I AM NOT ALLOWED TO SELECT THE FAVOURITE
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
The fast pace allowed Martincho Cat who co-incidentally had a high HR to edge Super Good in the last few strides before the Winning Post.. Singapore Nap and a couple of last seasons leading with 2 wins and 1 placing after 4 selections and LS is a clear 2nd with 2 wins only while Jun Ru and VB(value bet) bring up the tail end with a horde of tipsters in between sitting on a solitary win on Huka Falls. I have made a serious error in my HR calculations mistaking this race for a normal Handicap race when this is a Kranji Stakes A race weher all the horses are running underscaled in comparison to number 1 , Captain Obvious....Goalkeeper by 8.5kg and Emerald Hill by 14.5kg and Cash Dot Dot Com by a heavy 19 kg. This upsets all the HR calculations and will tend to favour the top weights especially number 1.Their HRs are now 1) 116.3 2) 108.7 3) 119.6 (can be ignored because of abysmal form 4) 106.8 5) 108.7 6) 104.7 7) 103.03
PREVIEW OF RACE
Most of the Media Tipsters think this race is between the unbeaten Emerald Hill , the classy Captain Obvious and the unbeaten Poly Track specialist Goalkeeper.Andrew Frost and and a few of the Media Tipsters seem to think that Goalkeeper has gone off the boil as he was a course scratching in his last aborted start.However he did do an impressive trial recently and I am inclined to think (with the support of the eagle eye of Tan Thean Loon) that Goal Keeper will not be an entry for this race if he was not race fit.The Trainer would want him to keep his proud unbeaten record on the Polytrack. With this in mind and a caveat to double check his bodyweight before making a final decision I will make an assumption that all the main contenders are race fit so my decision will be based strictly on their handicap data.The best HR actually belongs to Fighter Jet but his form is abysmal and he has been poor for the last 8 runs. On HR alone Speedy Cat has the next best HR followed by Cash Dot Com .Against this we have the class
of Goal Keeper and Emerald Hill and the obvious(pardon the pun) Dragon like form of Captain Obvious who is reportedly in fine fettle as reported through various track reports by Andrew Frost and the Newpaper and they could well be right. Although the good Captain has won on the Polytrack before I rate him a better wet turf track specialist and I truly believe the younger promising upstarts will expose him to be vulnerable at 59.5kg. In theory Emerald Hill has the 2nd best SF(just 0.15 seconds slower than the projected SF of Cash Dot Com ) but as seen before a projected drop in weight does not mean a horse will travel faster and that unbeaten winning horses like Goal Keeper and Emerald Hill have till today not found their best SF and will likely improve even further when challenged! If Goal Keeper wins today it would highlight the use of sectional times as a serious handicapping tool as on paper Emerald Hill has a better HR and SF than Goal Keeper but Goal Keeper has superior sectionals by 0,326 seconds (and Goal Keeper has an astonishing closing sectional of 22.15 seconds for the last 400M ....a truly amazing finishing burst comparable to Rocket Man's benchmark figures. I would rule out Fighter Jet from all exotic bet combinations and if on a budget I would eliminate Excavator as well.That would leave me with in order 2-1-5-7. I am quietly confident that Goal Keeper would maintain his unbeaten status on Polytracks and that he would at least run a place so a medium to big bet on win/place is in order. In addition I would place a big bet on 2#1 for forecast I suggest the main bet for tierce/quartet betting should be 2-1/2-1/5-7/5-7. . I expect the pace to be good with 2 front runners (2-7)but if they do a fast and furious pace Captain Obvious will come to the fore and upset the 2 race favourites. I HAVE AMMENDED MY POSITION FROM THE STANCE I TOOK ON SINGAPORE NAP AND 1 IS NOW A CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER AND HIS HR ADVANTAGE LOOKS OMINOUS FOR THE REST BUT I AM STUBBORNLY STICKING TO GOALKEEPER WHICH MAY BE MY UNDOING. I HAVE NOW DECIDED TO UPGRADE 1 TO 2ND PICK ABOVE 6 AND FOR THE EXOTICS I WILL USE 2 BANKERS (2 AND 1 ) AND CONCENTRATE ON ONLY 2-1-5-7 WITH THE CORRECT ORDER THE ONLY QUESTION MARK? PERFECT RACE TO SHOWCASE HANDICAPPING THEORIES ON WHICH FACTOR IS IMPORTANT IN ANALYSING RACES
I APOLOGISE FOR THE HR CALCULATIONS BEING SKEWED ON SINGAPORE NAP AND HAVE PROVIDED THE CORRECT HR IN THE BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOVE
REMAINING HANDICAP DATA
1) CAPTAIN OBVIOUS : FORM ***
SF 1:11.857 (WEAK HR FIGURES IN CONTRAST TO BEST HR FIGURES IN THE FIELD....SECTIONALS 24.462/24.332=48.794...IF HE WINS IT CONFIRMS THE THEORY THAT HR IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HANDICAP DATA. PROBABLY THE HORSE TO BEAT BASED ON HR RATINGS.....CLASSY TYPE WITH OVERSEAS WIN CREDENTIALS AND STRONGLY ADVANTAGED BY THE HANDICAP TERMS IN THIS RACE
2) GOALKEEPER : FORM ***
SF 1:10.86 .....SECTIONALS 25.31/22.15= 47.46 (BEST SECTIONALS)....SHOWCASE EXAMPLE ON HOW SECTIONALS MIGHT BE THE KEY WHEN OTHER HORSES HAVE SUPERIOR HR (1) AND SUPERIOR SF(6)....2 MAY LOSE TO 1 ON HR BUT HE IS LIKELY TO BEAT 6 TO PROVE THAT JUDICIOUS USE OF SECTIONALS TO UNCOVER A MORE CLASSY HORSE IN THE FACE OF SUPERIOR SPEED FIGURES
3) FIGHTER JET : FORM XXX
4) EXCAVATOR : FORM *
SF 1;11.287 ....SECTIONALS 24.336/24.056=48.392
5) SPEEDY CAT : FORM **
SF 1:10.72 ...SECTIONALS.....24.152/23.572=47.724....2ND BEST SECTIONALS....STRONG CASE FOR SECTIONALS IF GOALKEEPER WINS AND HE RUNS 2ND
6) EMERALD HILL : FORM ***.....SCRATCHED
SF1:10.72 ...SECTIONALS 24.433/23.353= 47.786....2ND BEST SF IN THIS FIELD...CLASSY TYPE
7) CASH DOT COM : FORM **
SF 1:10.57 ...SECTIONALS 23.897/23.95 = 47.847....STRONG CASE TO PROVE THAT HORSES ENJOYING DROP IN HANDICAP WEIGHT WILL NOT RUN FASTER DESPITE HAVING BEST PROJECTED SF IN THIS RACE...WILL BE SURPRISED IF HE GATECRASHES THE TOP 4 SPOTS DESPITE HIS SUPPOSEDLY SUPERIOR SPEED....WILL CONFIRM THE HYPE SURROUNDING SPEED FIGURES BEING LESS IMPORTANT AS A HANDICAPPING TOOL
11 January 2013
STARSTATZ RACING AND 4 OTHER MONICKER TIPS - SINGAPORE RACING 11 JANUARY 2013
Singapore Racing
11 January 2013
Race 8 Class 3
1200M Polytrack
Stakes 75,000
SINGAPORE NAP : PLEASE REFER TO WEBSITE AT www.7naps.com
STARSTATZ RACING : *** SUPER GOOD (MY ONLY OFFICIAL FLAGSHIP ENTRY WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS SINGAPORE NAP BUT AFTER GETTING IMPUT FROM TRACKWATCHER)
IIZI : **TERMINATOR....(ESSENTIALLY MY 2ND PICK FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES....NOT COUNTED AS AN OFFICIAL ENTRY BUT I DO EXPECT A MID TABLE PERFORMANCE)
TW(TRACKWATCHER) : ***SUPER GOOD ....9-2-10 -8 (BASED ON TRACKWATCHER REPORT AND NOT COUNTED AS AN OFFICIAL ENTRY)
VB (VALUE BET ),,,,,*TERMINATOR......(BET PLACE ONLY....NOT COUNTED AS AN OFFICIAL ENTRY)....HAS BEST SECTIONALS IN RACE.
LS (LONGSHOT) : **TEN UPON TEN (NOT COUNTED AS AN OFFICIAL ENTRY)....BEST CLOSING SECTIONAL BUT BADLY DRAWN.....NEEDS FAST PACE TO DO WELL BUT I DO EXPECT SUPER GOOD TO WIN BUT BY CONDITIONS OF THIS MONICKER I HAVE TO PICK A LONGSHOT
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
After conferring with STC officials I have decided not to induct journalists Braig Brennan and Michael Lee into my Big Race Challenge. After feedback from friends it has been suggested that my 6 monicker entries will give me an unfair advantage in the market so I shall categorically state that my one and only official Flagship entry will be under Starstatz Racing(which is essentially the same opinion as Singapore Nap but with the added benefit of imput from Trackwatcher Reports. I will categorically state the terms and conditions of my other monickers on Starstatz Racing blog as I still want to track their scores for further analysis and I will state my reasons why I am still doing the survey and my intentions.Nobody tipped City Lad last Sunday so the status quo of Xiu Fang being in the joint lead with LS still stands and Singapore Nap is officially on one win from 3 selections or a 33.33% strike rate..
Craig Evans will be included in the Big Race Challenge on the basis of strike rates as he is set to miss a couple of weekends.Kudos are in order fro Xiu Fang of Shin Min and Tan Thean Loon of Newpaper and surprsingly Xin Hua of Victory Trail for being in the top 3 after 3 race days . Surprisingly enough Larry Foley is like QPR at the bottom of the table but surely he is too good to remain there for too long and like QPR I do expect him and luminaries like Andrew Frost and Racing Guide( it does not surprise me that Winner21 has more modest scores this time around as well) to bounce back and challenge for the lead!
As for me I have not entered the full card challenge for this year as I have more pressing matters to attend to like being a caregiver for my ageing Mum as she recovers from a fracture after a fall and getting an Ace SME grant for my Doggy Portable Potty Tray Project.
PREVIEW OF RACE
The pace will be good with 3-4 front running types and I do expect 2-12-9 to vie for the lead and the coveted rails run.9 does have one of the better HRs in the race and also the best SF (speed figure) in the race . 12 actually has the best HR and 2 actually has the best sectionals in the race but 3 has the best class but is not fully tested on poly but his bloodlines suggest that he will be good on poly track. In order my selections are 9-2-10-12-1-8-5 (PLEASE NOTE CHANGE IN SELECTIONS AND ORDER FROM 7NAPS )I am pretty confident that Indicio will flop despite being the media favourite. I will cover the handicap data in full detail on my Starstatz Racing Blog. I suggest a big 3*** big bet on 9 to win only as Moreira mounts tend to pay $5.10 for a place.. I suggest a big bet on forecast /place forecast as well on 9#2.10 For tierce/quartet play I suggest using 9 as the sole banker and
2-10 as key horses on the 2nd line. If on a budget I suggest using 2-10- 12 as key horses on the 3rd line as well! Then continue putting the remainder of the horses on the 3rd and 4th lines.
HADICAP DATA
1) MY FRIEND JO :FORM **
HR 72.8....SF 1:11.927.....SECTIONALS 25.956/22.896= 48.852...2ND BEST CLOSING 400M...WILL NEED A FAST PACE TO DO WELL...POOR IN LAST RUN
2) TERMINATOR : FORM **
HR 72.6 ....SF 1;11.243....SECTIONALS 23.662/23.891 = 47.553 (BEST SECTIONALS IN THE RACE BUT IT IS NOT A STAND ALONE TOOL.....STRONG CASE TO STUDY SECTIONALS IF HE WINS
3) AWAKENED : FORM *** (STRONG PUSH BY TW FOR HIS CREDENTIALS DESPITE WIDE BARRIER DRAW...CLASSY TYPE AND DANGEROUS AT GOOD ODDS....COURSE SCRATCHING
4) JOHN OF ARCH : FORM XXX ( NOT SUITED ...MILER TYPE ...PREFER LONGER)
NOT WORTH TABULATING AND POOR IN LAST 5 RUNS....
5) MARTINCHO CAT : FORM *
HR 76.2...SF 1:11.903....SECTIONALS 25.331/23.021...POOR IN LAST 6 RUNS
6) IRISH COFFEE : FORM **
HR69,1 (1600M TURF) ....SF AND SECTIONALS N/A
7) PALAMBARO : FORM XXX (VERY POOR FORM- BLED)
HR 77.33(1100M POLY) SF 1:12.087....SECTIONALS N/A....VERY POOR IN LAST 6 RUNS
8) INDICIO : FORM **
HR 74.5 SF 1:11.94...SECTIONALS 24.887/24.007 = 48.894..FAIR HR BUT WEAK SECTIONALS WILL BE HIS UNDOING...4TH AT BEST BUT LIKELY TO MISS TOP 4 CUT....WEAK FAVOURITE AND I EXPECT MARKET TO DRIFT AWAY FROM HIM
9) SUPER GOOD : FORM ***
HR 74.75 ....SF 1:11.234 ....SECTIONALS 24.775/23.515 = 48.29....WELL DRAWN WITH IN FORM STABLE AND JOCKEY...THE ONE TO BEAT
10) TEN UPON TEN : FORM **
HR 75.9....SF 1:11.507...SECTIONALS 25.186/22.846 = 48.032...BEST CLOSING SECTIONALS...NEEDS A FAST PACE TO DO WELL....WIDE BARRIER MAY COST HIM A TOP 4 SPOT.....IMPROVING TYPE....MIGHT BARELY HOLD OFF 12
11) AFFIRMATION : FORM X (POOR FORM )
HR 73.7 ...SF AND SECTIONALS NOT AVAILABLE....OUT OF HIS DEPTH...MORE A CLASS 4 TYPE
12) SHINING GLORY : FORM **
HR 76.7 (BEST HR IN RACE BUT NOT AS CLASSY AS 9-3-2).....SF 1:11.547 ....SECTIONALS 24.003/24.493 =48.496 ....WELL DRAWN AND MAY JUST SHADE 10 FOR TOP 4 SPOT ESPECIALLY IF PACE IS SLOW ... MAY BE THE FRONT RUNNER IN THIS RACE!
11 January 2013
Race 8 Class 3
1200M Polytrack
Stakes 75,000
SINGAPORE NAP : PLEASE REFER TO WEBSITE AT www.7naps.com
STARSTATZ RACING : *** SUPER GOOD (MY ONLY OFFICIAL FLAGSHIP ENTRY WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS SINGAPORE NAP BUT AFTER GETTING IMPUT FROM TRACKWATCHER)
IIZI : **TERMINATOR....(ESSENTIALLY MY 2ND PICK FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES....NOT COUNTED AS AN OFFICIAL ENTRY BUT I DO EXPECT A MID TABLE PERFORMANCE)
TW(TRACKWATCHER) : ***SUPER GOOD ....9-2-10 -8 (BASED ON TRACKWATCHER REPORT AND NOT COUNTED AS AN OFFICIAL ENTRY)
VB (VALUE BET ),,,,,*TERMINATOR......(BET PLACE ONLY....NOT COUNTED AS AN OFFICIAL ENTRY)....HAS BEST SECTIONALS IN RACE.
LS (LONGSHOT) : **TEN UPON TEN (NOT COUNTED AS AN OFFICIAL ENTRY)....BEST CLOSING SECTIONAL BUT BADLY DRAWN.....NEEDS FAST PACE TO DO WELL BUT I DO EXPECT SUPER GOOD TO WIN BUT BY CONDITIONS OF THIS MONICKER I HAVE TO PICK A LONGSHOT
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
After conferring with STC officials I have decided not to induct journalists Braig Brennan and Michael Lee into my Big Race Challenge. After feedback from friends it has been suggested that my 6 monicker entries will give me an unfair advantage in the market so I shall categorically state that my one and only official Flagship entry will be under Starstatz Racing(which is essentially the same opinion as Singapore Nap but with the added benefit of imput from Trackwatcher Reports. I will categorically state the terms and conditions of my other monickers on Starstatz Racing blog as I still want to track their scores for further analysis and I will state my reasons why I am still doing the survey and my intentions.Nobody tipped City Lad last Sunday so the status quo of Xiu Fang being in the joint lead with LS still stands and Singapore Nap is officially on one win from 3 selections or a 33.33% strike rate..
Craig Evans will be included in the Big Race Challenge on the basis of strike rates as he is set to miss a couple of weekends.Kudos are in order fro Xiu Fang of Shin Min and Tan Thean Loon of Newpaper and surprsingly Xin Hua of Victory Trail for being in the top 3 after 3 race days . Surprisingly enough Larry Foley is like QPR at the bottom of the table but surely he is too good to remain there for too long and like QPR I do expect him and luminaries like Andrew Frost and Racing Guide( it does not surprise me that Winner21 has more modest scores this time around as well) to bounce back and challenge for the lead!
As for me I have not entered the full card challenge for this year as I have more pressing matters to attend to like being a caregiver for my ageing Mum as she recovers from a fracture after a fall and getting an Ace SME grant for my Doggy Portable Potty Tray Project.
PREVIEW OF RACE
The pace will be good with 3-4 front running types and I do expect 2-12-9 to vie for the lead and the coveted rails run.9 does have one of the better HRs in the race and also the best SF (speed figure) in the race . 12 actually has the best HR and 2 actually has the best sectionals in the race but 3 has the best class but is not fully tested on poly but his bloodlines suggest that he will be good on poly track. In order my selections are 9-2-10-12-1-8-5 (PLEASE NOTE CHANGE IN SELECTIONS AND ORDER FROM 7NAPS )I am pretty confident that Indicio will flop despite being the media favourite. I will cover the handicap data in full detail on my Starstatz Racing Blog. I suggest a big 3*** big bet on 9 to win only as Moreira mounts tend to pay $5.10 for a place.. I suggest a big bet on forecast /place forecast as well on 9#2.10 For tierce/quartet play I suggest using 9 as the sole banker and
2-10 as key horses on the 2nd line. If on a budget I suggest using 2-10- 12 as key horses on the 3rd line as well! Then continue putting the remainder of the horses on the 3rd and 4th lines.
HADICAP DATA
1) MY FRIEND JO :FORM **
HR 72.8....SF 1:11.927.....SECTIONALS 25.956/22.896= 48.852...2ND BEST CLOSING 400M...WILL NEED A FAST PACE TO DO WELL...POOR IN LAST RUN
2) TERMINATOR : FORM **
HR 72.6 ....SF 1;11.243....SECTIONALS 23.662/23.891 = 47.553 (BEST SECTIONALS IN THE RACE BUT IT IS NOT A STAND ALONE TOOL.....STRONG CASE TO STUDY SECTIONALS IF HE WINS
3) AWAKENED : FORM *** (STRONG PUSH BY TW FOR HIS CREDENTIALS DESPITE WIDE BARRIER DRAW...CLASSY TYPE AND DANGEROUS AT GOOD ODDS....COURSE SCRATCHING
4) JOHN OF ARCH : FORM XXX ( NOT SUITED ...MILER TYPE ...PREFER LONGER)
NOT WORTH TABULATING AND POOR IN LAST 5 RUNS....
5) MARTINCHO CAT : FORM *
HR 76.2...SF 1:11.903....SECTIONALS 25.331/23.021...POOR IN LAST 6 RUNS
6) IRISH COFFEE : FORM **
HR69,1 (1600M TURF) ....SF AND SECTIONALS N/A
7) PALAMBARO : FORM XXX (VERY POOR FORM- BLED)
HR 77.33(1100M POLY) SF 1:12.087....SECTIONALS N/A....VERY POOR IN LAST 6 RUNS
8) INDICIO : FORM **
HR 74.5 SF 1:11.94...SECTIONALS 24.887/24.007 = 48.894..FAIR HR BUT WEAK SECTIONALS WILL BE HIS UNDOING...4TH AT BEST BUT LIKELY TO MISS TOP 4 CUT....WEAK FAVOURITE AND I EXPECT MARKET TO DRIFT AWAY FROM HIM
9) SUPER GOOD : FORM ***
HR 74.75 ....SF 1:11.234 ....SECTIONALS 24.775/23.515 = 48.29....WELL DRAWN WITH IN FORM STABLE AND JOCKEY...THE ONE TO BEAT
10) TEN UPON TEN : FORM **
HR 75.9....SF 1:11.507...SECTIONALS 25.186/22.846 = 48.032...BEST CLOSING SECTIONALS...NEEDS A FAST PACE TO DO WELL....WIDE BARRIER MAY COST HIM A TOP 4 SPOT.....IMPROVING TYPE....MIGHT BARELY HOLD OFF 12
11) AFFIRMATION : FORM X (POOR FORM )
HR 73.7 ...SF AND SECTIONALS NOT AVAILABLE....OUT OF HIS DEPTH...MORE A CLASS 4 TYPE
12) SHINING GLORY : FORM **
HR 76.7 (BEST HR IN RACE BUT NOT AS CLASSY AS 9-3-2).....SF 1:11.547 ....SECTIONALS 24.003/24.493 =48.496 ....WELL DRAWN AND MAY JUST SHADE 10 FOR TOP 4 SPOT ESPECIALLY IF PACE IS SLOW ... MAY BE THE FRONT RUNNER IN THIS RACE!
06 January 2013
SINGAPORE RACING - 06 JANUARY 2013 STARSTATZ RACING PLUS 5 MONICKER TIPSTERS
Singapore Racing
6 January 2013
Race 7 Class 3
1600M Polytrack
Stakes 75,000
SINGAPORE NAP SELECTS : *** SIR OAKLEY ( X2 )
STARSTATZ RACING SELECTS : *** SIR OAKLEY ( I EXPECT VALUE WITH A DOUBLE DIGIT DIVIDEND )
IIZI SELECTS : *** : SIR OAKLEY ( NO POINT GOING AGAINST THE FAVOURITE )
TW SELECTS : ***SIR OAKLEY ....TRACK FORM 5-1-4-6
VB (VALUE BET ) SELECTS : ** DAMO (TARGET FOR PLACE BETS ONLY WITH A PERFECT RECORD SO FAR WITH A PROFIT OF $5 FROM 2 RACES)
LS (LONGSHOT ) : *** SIR OAKLEY (NO POINT GOING AGAINST THE FAVOURITE )
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Xiu Fang and LS(Longshot - one of the 5 monicker tipsters from the Starstatz Racing Blog) are the only 2 remaining Media Tipsters with a perfect record in the Big Race Challenge. I will eventually include the guys who tip in the Straits Times advertorials like Craig Brennan and Michael Lee when they highlight horses in the Big Races for the day. Since they are not tipping all the time I shall analyse their performances by using the strike rate method so they will not lose out by tipping in less races. In a similar vein the same would apply to Craig Evans when he gets back from his USA holidays. After the running of this race there will be one tipster left standing with a perfect record in big races . Even If Sir Oakley (classy type with 2 wins from 3 starts being the best strike rate performer in this race) chalks up his win as I expect him to do so LS will not hold the lead for long as he is obligated to look for longshots as in the case for Lizarre on opening day . I fully expect luminaries like Andrew Frost , Racing Guide Singapore Nap, Starstatz Racing, Ma Hui and Tan Thean Loon and Hui Liang to catch up with Xiu Fang and LS and compete for the Top 5 spots. VB (value bet)by nature of the methodology of playing place only has done its job with a perfect score for placing and a return of $15 from 2 placings so far! However he is now 2nd last with Jun Ru of Victory Trail trailing in last with his solitary placing on Bahen
PREVIEW OF RACE
The pace of the race will be slow with two notable front runners in 8 and 1 leading the way with 8 getting the rails run and Flaneur will try to lead all the way but despite having good HR figures only behind Tarankali and, Cinderella Man Flaneur's SF and sectionals are weak.. I consider Sir Oakley a safe big bet despite the fact that he is drawn wide. I consider him a classy type with 2 wins from 3 starts but I expect him to pay a double digit dividend as he does not have the best HR or even SF unlike his stablemate Huka Falls who paid the odds on dividend of $6 on Friday.Despite being a clear and overwhelming favourite among the tipsters on STC website. However the definitive point about Sir Oakley's true potential lies in the fact that his sectional times (1st 400M and last 400M) at 1700M are faster than both Damo and City Lad at 1600M. Despite a strong HR his stable mate Cinderella Man though being handled by the Champion jickey Jose Moreira he is not likely to trouble Damo and City Lad with his weak sectionals .The 3 of them look good for a direct tierce with the order being 5-4-1 and it looks like 6 and 8 will tussle for the 4th quartet spot.
In order my selections ar 5-4-1-6-8-3. I shall indicate the full details of all handicap data and the 5 monicker selections on Starstatz Racing. blogspot.com.
I recommend a big bet on forecast/place forecast on on 5#4-1 and to use as the sole banker on the 1st line and 4-1 as key horses on the 2nd line for your exotic bets and leave the remaining 5 horses ie 4-1-6-8-3 on the 3rd and 4th lines. Play a 3***big bet on 5 to win only with full confidence as he has the best sectionals in the race either at 1700M or 1600M!''
HANDICAP DATA
1) CITY LAD : FORM ***
HR 71.2....SF 1:36.7 (2ND FASTEST SF IN THIS FIELD....IF HE DOES NOT WIN IT CONFIRMS THE THEORY THAT TIMING IS NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HANDICAPPING RACES) ....SECTIONALS 25.742/24.402 = 50.145
2) SUPERCZAR :FORM *
HR 72.5....SF 1: 40.116 (1700M EXTRAPOLATED SF = 1:39.097)....SECTIONALS 27.289/23.939
= 51.228 (1700M SECTIONALS 26.267/23.669 = 49.936 (1600M SECTIONALS SHOULD BE COMPARED DIRECTLY WITH OTHER HORSES AT 1600M AND LIKEWISE FOR 1700M COMPARISON BUT IF SECTIONALS COMPILED AT 1700M ARE SUPERIOR TO HIS RIVAL AT 1600M IT MEANS HE CAN RUN FASTER FOR THE 1ST400M AND LAST 400M DESPITE RUNNING 100M FURTHER
3) GETREEL : FORM *
HR 66.5....SF 1:39.691 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M RUN).....SECTIONALS
25.674/24.076 = 49.75 (1700M RUN )
4) DAMO : FORM : ***
HR 72.0 (SAME HR AS 5) ....SF 1:38.257 ....SECTIONALS 26.231/23.78 = 50.012...
REPORTEDLY IN TERRIFIC FORM AND SUPPOSEDLY BETTER FORM THAN SIR OAKLEY AS REPORTED IN SHIN MIN AND WAN BAO BUT BOTH MY TRACKWATCHERS RATE SIR OAKLEY TO BE BETTER....HAS SLIGHTLY SUPERIOR SF THAN SIR OAKLEY BUT HIS SECTIONAL AT 1600M PALE IN COMPARISON TO SIR OAKLEY. MOREOVER HIS STRIKE RATE OF 5 WINS FROM 21 RUNS AT 23.81% ARE MUCH WORSE THAN SIR OAKLEY AT 2 WINS FROM 3 STARTS AT 66.67%.....HAS DRAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN SIR OAKLEY THOUGH WHICH MIGHT BE A FACTOR IN HIS FAVOUR BUT I BELIEVE SIR OAKLEY WILL RISE UP THE GRADES AND IMPROVE FURTHER
5) SIR OAKLEY : FORM ***
HR 72.0 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M )...SF 1:38.628 ( EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M)
SECTIONALS 25.133/23.627 = 48.76 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M) ...IN A RACE HE WON BY 4 LENGTHS AND EASING UP HE SHOWS IN HIS SECTIONALS THAT DESPITE RUNNING A 100M FURTHER HIS LAST 400M EXTRAPOLATED FROM HIS 1700M RUN IS STILL SUPERIOR THAN DAMO OVER 1600M.....SOME MEDIA TIPSTERS HAVE SELECTED HIM AS 1ST PICK BUT ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT HE IS A SPECIAL OR BEST BET OF THE DAY.. I SHARE THE SAME OPINION AS FROSTY THAT HE IS MY BEST BET OF THE DAY......HIS SIRE COAT'S CHOICE HAS ONLY PLACED TWICE FROM 2 STARTS AND IS NOT THAT GLAMOUROUSAS LODE AND ELUSIVE CITY BUT HIS PROGENY HAVE ALREADY WON ONE GROUP RACE AND HIS GRANDSIRE IS BY THE CHAMPION REDOUBTE'S CHOICE/DANEHILL BLOODLINE AND HE HAS KRIS S STAYING BLOOD THROUGH HIS DAM....THE ONLY NEGATIVE BEING THE WIDEST BARRIER DRAW BUT IN A SMALL FIELD WITH HIS CLASS AND CONSISTENCY TRAFFIC WILL NOT POSE A PROBLEM
6) CINDERELLA MAN : FROM **
HR 76.5 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M )...SF 1:38.603....SECTIONALS
26.136/24.443 = 50.579 HAS SUPERIOR HR COMPARED TO THE 3 MAIN CHANCES BUT HAS BEEN POOR IN LAST 3 RUNS.....DESPITE THE SERVICES OF CHAMPION JOCKEY ON BOARD HIS SECTIONALS ARE WEAKER THAN 5-4-1....WILL CARRY SOME SUPPORT TO MAKE SIR OAKLEY A DOUBLE DIGIT DIVIDEND...QUARTET SPOT AT BEST...LIKELY RED HERRING FOR RACEGOERS! HAS SUPERIOR 1700M SECTIONALS COMPARED TO FLANEUR AND MIGHT JUST MAKE IT FOR 4TH SPOT
7) TARANKALI : FORM *
HR 80.92 ( EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M - BEST HR IN RACE BUT TERRIBLY INCONSISTENT WITH ONLY 3 WINS FROM 38 STARTS AND ALSO IN POOR FORM IN LAST 3 RUNS).....SECTIONALS 26.358/23.504 = 49.862 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M)....WILD CARD FOR TOP 4 SPOTS IF IN FORM BUT WILL NOT POSE A PROBLEM FOR 5 WITH HIS BETTER SECTIONALS
8) FLANEUR : FORM **
HR 76.01 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M ) ....SF 1:39.8 (SF AT 1700M IS 1:39.308)
SECTIONALS 25.953/24.502 = 50.455 (1700M SECTIONALS ARE 25.59/24.384 = 49.974)
WILL GET TE RAILS RUN AND LEAD IN SLOW PACE RACE....CAN GET 4TH SPOT IF ALLOWED TO DICTATE THE PACE AND IF FELLOW FRONT RUNNER CITY LAD DOES NOT PRESS HIM HARD....WILL BATTLE WITH 6 FOR QUARTET SPOT....POOR IN LAST 2 RUNS
6 January 2013
Race 7 Class 3
1600M Polytrack
Stakes 75,000
SINGAPORE NAP SELECTS : *** SIR OAKLEY ( X2 )
STARSTATZ RACING SELECTS : *** SIR OAKLEY ( I EXPECT VALUE WITH A DOUBLE DIGIT DIVIDEND )
IIZI SELECTS : *** : SIR OAKLEY ( NO POINT GOING AGAINST THE FAVOURITE )
TW SELECTS : ***SIR OAKLEY ....TRACK FORM 5-1-4-6
VB (VALUE BET ) SELECTS : ** DAMO (TARGET FOR PLACE BETS ONLY WITH A PERFECT RECORD SO FAR WITH A PROFIT OF $5 FROM 2 RACES)
LS (LONGSHOT ) : *** SIR OAKLEY (NO POINT GOING AGAINST THE FAVOURITE )
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Xiu Fang and LS(Longshot - one of the 5 monicker tipsters from the Starstatz Racing Blog) are the only 2 remaining Media Tipsters with a perfect record in the Big Race Challenge. I will eventually include the guys who tip in the Straits Times advertorials like Craig Brennan and Michael Lee when they highlight horses in the Big Races for the day. Since they are not tipping all the time I shall analyse their performances by using the strike rate method so they will not lose out by tipping in less races. In a similar vein the same would apply to Craig Evans when he gets back from his USA holidays. After the running of this race there will be one tipster left standing with a perfect record in big races . Even If Sir Oakley (classy type with 2 wins from 3 starts being the best strike rate performer in this race) chalks up his win as I expect him to do so LS will not hold the lead for long as he is obligated to look for longshots as in the case for Lizarre on opening day . I fully expect luminaries like Andrew Frost , Racing Guide Singapore Nap, Starstatz Racing, Ma Hui and Tan Thean Loon and Hui Liang to catch up with Xiu Fang and LS and compete for the Top 5 spots. VB (value bet)by nature of the methodology of playing place only has done its job with a perfect score for placing and a return of $15 from 2 placings so far! However he is now 2nd last with Jun Ru of Victory Trail trailing in last with his solitary placing on Bahen
PREVIEW OF RACE
The pace of the race will be slow with two notable front runners in 8 and 1 leading the way with 8 getting the rails run and Flaneur will try to lead all the way but despite having good HR figures only behind Tarankali and, Cinderella Man Flaneur's SF and sectionals are weak.. I consider Sir Oakley a safe big bet despite the fact that he is drawn wide. I consider him a classy type with 2 wins from 3 starts but I expect him to pay a double digit dividend as he does not have the best HR or even SF unlike his stablemate Huka Falls who paid the odds on dividend of $6 on Friday.Despite being a clear and overwhelming favourite among the tipsters on STC website. However the definitive point about Sir Oakley's true potential lies in the fact that his sectional times (1st 400M and last 400M) at 1700M are faster than both Damo and City Lad at 1600M. Despite a strong HR his stable mate Cinderella Man though being handled by the Champion jickey Jose Moreira he is not likely to trouble Damo and City Lad with his weak sectionals .The 3 of them look good for a direct tierce with the order being 5-4-1 and it looks like 6 and 8 will tussle for the 4th quartet spot.
In order my selections ar 5-4-1-6-8-3. I shall indicate the full details of all handicap data and the 5 monicker selections on Starstatz Racing. blogspot.com.
I recommend a big bet on forecast/place forecast on on 5#4-1 and to use as the sole banker on the 1st line and 4-1 as key horses on the 2nd line for your exotic bets and leave the remaining 5 horses ie 4-1-6-8-3 on the 3rd and 4th lines. Play a 3***big bet on 5 to win only with full confidence as he has the best sectionals in the race either at 1700M or 1600M!''
HANDICAP DATA
1) CITY LAD : FORM ***
HR 71.2....SF 1:36.7 (2ND FASTEST SF IN THIS FIELD....IF HE DOES NOT WIN IT CONFIRMS THE THEORY THAT TIMING IS NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HANDICAPPING RACES) ....SECTIONALS 25.742/24.402 = 50.145
2) SUPERCZAR :FORM *
HR 72.5....SF 1: 40.116 (1700M EXTRAPOLATED SF = 1:39.097)....SECTIONALS 27.289/23.939
= 51.228 (1700M SECTIONALS 26.267/23.669 = 49.936 (1600M SECTIONALS SHOULD BE COMPARED DIRECTLY WITH OTHER HORSES AT 1600M AND LIKEWISE FOR 1700M COMPARISON BUT IF SECTIONALS COMPILED AT 1700M ARE SUPERIOR TO HIS RIVAL AT 1600M IT MEANS HE CAN RUN FASTER FOR THE 1ST400M AND LAST 400M DESPITE RUNNING 100M FURTHER
3) GETREEL : FORM *
HR 66.5....SF 1:39.691 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M RUN).....SECTIONALS
25.674/24.076 = 49.75 (1700M RUN )
4) DAMO : FORM : ***
HR 72.0 (SAME HR AS 5) ....SF 1:38.257 ....SECTIONALS 26.231/23.78 = 50.012...
REPORTEDLY IN TERRIFIC FORM AND SUPPOSEDLY BETTER FORM THAN SIR OAKLEY AS REPORTED IN SHIN MIN AND WAN BAO BUT BOTH MY TRACKWATCHERS RATE SIR OAKLEY TO BE BETTER....HAS SLIGHTLY SUPERIOR SF THAN SIR OAKLEY BUT HIS SECTIONAL AT 1600M PALE IN COMPARISON TO SIR OAKLEY. MOREOVER HIS STRIKE RATE OF 5 WINS FROM 21 RUNS AT 23.81% ARE MUCH WORSE THAN SIR OAKLEY AT 2 WINS FROM 3 STARTS AT 66.67%.....HAS DRAWN SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN SIR OAKLEY THOUGH WHICH MIGHT BE A FACTOR IN HIS FAVOUR BUT I BELIEVE SIR OAKLEY WILL RISE UP THE GRADES AND IMPROVE FURTHER
5) SIR OAKLEY : FORM ***
HR 72.0 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M )...SF 1:38.628 ( EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M)
SECTIONALS 25.133/23.627 = 48.76 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M) ...IN A RACE HE WON BY 4 LENGTHS AND EASING UP HE SHOWS IN HIS SECTIONALS THAT DESPITE RUNNING A 100M FURTHER HIS LAST 400M EXTRAPOLATED FROM HIS 1700M RUN IS STILL SUPERIOR THAN DAMO OVER 1600M.....SOME MEDIA TIPSTERS HAVE SELECTED HIM AS 1ST PICK BUT ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT HE IS A SPECIAL OR BEST BET OF THE DAY.. I SHARE THE SAME OPINION AS FROSTY THAT HE IS MY BEST BET OF THE DAY......HIS SIRE COAT'S CHOICE HAS ONLY PLACED TWICE FROM 2 STARTS AND IS NOT THAT GLAMOUROUSAS LODE AND ELUSIVE CITY BUT HIS PROGENY HAVE ALREADY WON ONE GROUP RACE AND HIS GRANDSIRE IS BY THE CHAMPION REDOUBTE'S CHOICE/DANEHILL BLOODLINE AND HE HAS KRIS S STAYING BLOOD THROUGH HIS DAM....THE ONLY NEGATIVE BEING THE WIDEST BARRIER DRAW BUT IN A SMALL FIELD WITH HIS CLASS AND CONSISTENCY TRAFFIC WILL NOT POSE A PROBLEM
6) CINDERELLA MAN : FROM **
HR 76.5 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M )...SF 1:38.603....SECTIONALS
26.136/24.443 = 50.579 HAS SUPERIOR HR COMPARED TO THE 3 MAIN CHANCES BUT HAS BEEN POOR IN LAST 3 RUNS.....DESPITE THE SERVICES OF CHAMPION JOCKEY ON BOARD HIS SECTIONALS ARE WEAKER THAN 5-4-1....WILL CARRY SOME SUPPORT TO MAKE SIR OAKLEY A DOUBLE DIGIT DIVIDEND...QUARTET SPOT AT BEST...LIKELY RED HERRING FOR RACEGOERS! HAS SUPERIOR 1700M SECTIONALS COMPARED TO FLANEUR AND MIGHT JUST MAKE IT FOR 4TH SPOT
7) TARANKALI : FORM *
HR 80.92 ( EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M - BEST HR IN RACE BUT TERRIBLY INCONSISTENT WITH ONLY 3 WINS FROM 38 STARTS AND ALSO IN POOR FORM IN LAST 3 RUNS).....SECTIONALS 26.358/23.504 = 49.862 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M)....WILD CARD FOR TOP 4 SPOTS IF IN FORM BUT WILL NOT POSE A PROBLEM FOR 5 WITH HIS BETTER SECTIONALS
8) FLANEUR : FORM **
HR 76.01 (EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1700M ) ....SF 1:39.8 (SF AT 1700M IS 1:39.308)
SECTIONALS 25.953/24.502 = 50.455 (1700M SECTIONALS ARE 25.59/24.384 = 49.974)
WILL GET TE RAILS RUN AND LEAD IN SLOW PACE RACE....CAN GET 4TH SPOT IF ALLOWED TO DICTATE THE PACE AND IF FELLOW FRONT RUNNER CITY LAD DOES NOT PRESS HIM HARD....WILL BATTLE WITH 6 FOR QUARTET SPOT....POOR IN LAST 2 RUNS
04 January 2013
singapore racing 04 January 2013 Race 3 - starstatz racing and 5 other monickers
STARSTATZ RACING'S SELECTION PLUS 5 OTHER MONICKER SELECTIONS
04 January 2013
Race 3 OPEN B83
1200M Polytrack
Stakes $95,000
SINGAPORE NAP : *** HUKA FALLS ( X 2 )...DUE COMPUTER GLITCH AND LATE POSTING MY SCORE WILL COUNT IN BIG RACE CHALLENGE FOR STRIKE RATE % BUT WILL NOT COUNT ON OFFICIAL BLOG TALLY UNLESS POSTED
STARSTATZ RACING : ***HUKA FALLS....SHOO-IN BET
IIZI; *** HUKA FALLS
TW :***HUKA FALLS.....TRACKFORM - 1-2-5-4
VB : ** TRUDEAU...LOOKING FOR PLACE DIVIDENDS AT VALUE
LS: ***HUKA FALLS (NOT WORTH GOING AGAINST THE FAVOURITE)
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
My experiment with 6 monicker TipsterS started off in an intriguing manner with LS (longshot) scoring with Lizarre at $33/$10 to share the limelight with Xu Fang of Shin Min who started the year as she ended with a top of the table performance with 5 wins including Lizarre while in the last day of the season she bagged 6 wins including longshots including value bet Kobe Top Gun and logshot Hang Tuah
Let me reiterate the format of the "BIG RACE CHALLENGE. Placings will come into play as a tie-breaker much like in the manner Laxon edged out Freedman on the last day of the last season!To determine winners of sub-category value bet specialist I shall calculate the number of winners at $30 and above. To determine who is the outsider specialist I will total the dividends of winners tipped aboat $30 and above only for the whole season and add up the tally.
PREVIEW OF RACE
HUKA FALLS IS PRACTICALLY A SHOO-IN FOR THIS RACE .
The market conssiders Bahen a good bet for 2nd spot.Despite his HR being better than Niceone and Trudeau he does have weaker SF and sectionals compared to both of them! I recommend a
medium bet on forecast and place forecast on 1#3-5 despite the fact that Bahen's handicap rating is superior .I expect the forecast dividend for Huka Falls and Bahen to be minimal taking into consideration that Huka Falls is likely to be an odds on favouriteThis is a funny old race with Sieze The Day and Emblssed having the Best handicap ratings but I truly believe that Sieze the Day is not classy enough to beat this field. Overall Huka Falls is an improver and has the best overall combination of HR/SF and sectionals. I recommend Trudeau for the play on place only and he should make the top 4 quartet spot together with Niceone and Bahen while the dark horse for the coveted top 4 quartet spot is Emblessed because of his unique style of running his fastest sectional between the 800M to the 400M post. If we take his his 1st and 2nd sectionals he could actually have the fastest sectionals in this race! I rate Sieze the Day next with miler/stayer Gordon Roberts as a no hoper. In order my selection are thus 1-5-2-3-4-7. Despite my analysis I belive the permutations are too many and I suggest a cover bey on 1#5-2-3-4-7 for the tierce and quartet play. Do a big bet on Huka Falls to win only and a medium bet on place only for Trudeau. Last Tuesday my recommendation for my HKG friends resulted in my tip on Lizarre winning but I expect Trudeau to give a good account of himself and run a place at good odds. He would surprise me too if he beats Huka Falls. Nevertheless my HKG friends would not like to bet on an odds on favourite like Huka Falls so I suggest they play win/place on Niceone instead which should pay more than the win dividends on Huka Falls winning, The pace will be good to fast with 3 front running types with 1-6-3 leading and Huka Falss shoild get the rails run but I see Emblessed hassling Huka Falls for the lead before the final turn. Niceone has a good 2nd up record winning twice from 2 1st up starts but has been poor in last 4 starts
HANDICAP DATA
1)HUKA FALLS...FORM***
HR76.6...SF 1:11.556....SECTIONALS ....24.572/23.642=48.214....CLASSY TYPE AND WILL GO UP THE GRADES TO CLASS ONE...SHOO-IN BET
2)BAHEN....FORM***
HR77.1....SF 1:12.05....SECTIONALS 24.99/23.68=48.67....LACKS EARLY SPEED TO BE IN THE FRAY BUT WILL BENEFIT IF THE PACE HOTS UP IF BOTH NICEONE AND EMBLESSED HASSLE HUKA FALLS ALL THE WAY....CLASSY DAM WITH 10 WINS UNDER HER BELT BUT MAY PREFER LONGER
3)NICEONE ....FORM **
HR 75.9 ....SF 1:12.008....SECTIONALS24.09/23.74=47.83...GOOD 2ND UP 2ND UP RECORD OF 2 WINS FROM 2 RUNS. HIS SECTIONALS ARE SUPERIOR TO THE FAVOURITE BUT HR/SF ARE WEAKER...POOR IN LAST 4 RUNS....WILL TUSSLE WITH EMBLESSED FOR LAST QUARTET SPOT....HAS BETTER STRIKE RATE THAN EMBLESSED....VERY CONFIDENT OF A PLACE AT LEAST AND HIS PLACE ODDS MAY BE HIGHER THAN HUKA FALLS WIN ODDS!
4) EMBLESSED .....FORM **
HR 84.8 (OVER 1400M TURF)(HR 79.2 ON POLY) ....SF 1:11.61....SECTIONALS 24.49/24.5=48.99 (IMPRESSIVE IF YOU COMPUTE HIS 2ND SECTIONAL AND YOU WILL GET TOTAL SECTIONALS OF 47.38 BUT HARD TO ASSESS...DARK HORSE WITH A REPORTED RETURN TO FORM REPORT BY TRACKWATCHER
5)TRUDEAU....FORM ***
HR 76.9....SF 11.208....SECTIONALS 24.514/23.694= 48.208.....ACTUALLY HAS SUPERIOR HR/SF AND SECTIONALS COMPARED TO THE ODDS ON FAVOURITE....CAN COVER AS A LIVELY EACH WAY WIN/PLACE CHANCE AT VALUE ODDS....BUT HUKA FALLS HAS LOTS OF SCOPE FOR IMPROVEMENT....IF HE DOES NOT UPSET I FIGURE HE WILL MESS UP EVERYBODY'S TIERCE/QUARTE COMBINATIONS AND UPSET BAHEN FOR THE FORECAST SPOT AT THE LEAST.....SELECTION FOR MY HKG FRIENDS WHO LIKE VALUE BETS
6) GORDON ROBERTS ....FORM XXX (NO HOPER )
MILER/STAYER TYPE NOT SUITED....HAS NOT EVEN PLACED IN SPRINT RACES
7) SIEZE THE DAY....FORM **
HR 84.82...SF 1:11.244....SECTIONALS 23.691//24.661= 48.352...FANCIED BY A FEWBTO TAKE THE 4TH QUARTET SPOT BUT DOES NOT SEEM CLASSY ENOUGH AS EVIDENT IN HIS WEAK SECTIONALS...WILL BE EXPOSED AND CONFIRM THE THEORY THAT A DROP IN HANDICAP WEIGHT DOES NOT MEAN THE HORSE CAN RUN FASTER WHICH IS A COMMON MISTAKE AMONG NEW RACEGOERS...ALTHOUGH HIS PROJECTED SF IS FASTER THAN HUKA FALLS IT DOES NOT MEAN HE CAN ACTUALLY POST THIS SF....
I COULD BE WRONG BUT I AM NOT CONVINCED HE WILL MAKE THE TOP 4
04 January 2013
Race 3 OPEN B83
1200M Polytrack
Stakes $95,000
SINGAPORE NAP : *** HUKA FALLS ( X 2 )...DUE COMPUTER GLITCH AND LATE POSTING MY SCORE WILL COUNT IN BIG RACE CHALLENGE FOR STRIKE RATE % BUT WILL NOT COUNT ON OFFICIAL BLOG TALLY UNLESS POSTED
STARSTATZ RACING : ***HUKA FALLS....SHOO-IN BET
IIZI; *** HUKA FALLS
TW :***HUKA FALLS.....TRACKFORM - 1-2-5-4
VB : ** TRUDEAU...LOOKING FOR PLACE DIVIDENDS AT VALUE
LS: ***HUKA FALLS (NOT WORTH GOING AGAINST THE FAVOURITE)
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
My experiment with 6 monicker TipsterS started off in an intriguing manner with LS (longshot) scoring with Lizarre at $33/$10 to share the limelight with Xu Fang of Shin Min who started the year as she ended with a top of the table performance with 5 wins including Lizarre while in the last day of the season she bagged 6 wins including longshots including value bet Kobe Top Gun and logshot Hang Tuah
Let me reiterate the format of the "BIG RACE CHALLENGE. Placings will come into play as a tie-breaker much like in the manner Laxon edged out Freedman on the last day of the last season!To determine winners of sub-category value bet specialist I shall calculate the number of winners at $30 and above. To determine who is the outsider specialist I will total the dividends of winners tipped aboat $30 and above only for the whole season and add up the tally.
PREVIEW OF RACE
HUKA FALLS IS PRACTICALLY A SHOO-IN FOR THIS RACE .
The market conssiders Bahen a good bet for 2nd spot.Despite his HR being better than Niceone and Trudeau he does have weaker SF and sectionals compared to both of them! I recommend a
medium bet on forecast and place forecast on 1#3-5 despite the fact that Bahen's handicap rating is superior .I expect the forecast dividend for Huka Falls and Bahen to be minimal taking into consideration that Huka Falls is likely to be an odds on favouriteThis is a funny old race with Sieze The Day and Emblssed having the Best handicap ratings but I truly believe that Sieze the Day is not classy enough to beat this field. Overall Huka Falls is an improver and has the best overall combination of HR/SF and sectionals. I recommend Trudeau for the play on place only and he should make the top 4 quartet spot together with Niceone and Bahen while the dark horse for the coveted top 4 quartet spot is Emblessed because of his unique style of running his fastest sectional between the 800M to the 400M post. If we take his his 1st and 2nd sectionals he could actually have the fastest sectionals in this race! I rate Sieze the Day next with miler/stayer Gordon Roberts as a no hoper. In order my selection are thus 1-5-2-3-4-7. Despite my analysis I belive the permutations are too many and I suggest a cover bey on 1#5-2-3-4-7 for the tierce and quartet play. Do a big bet on Huka Falls to win only and a medium bet on place only for Trudeau. Last Tuesday my recommendation for my HKG friends resulted in my tip on Lizarre winning but I expect Trudeau to give a good account of himself and run a place at good odds. He would surprise me too if he beats Huka Falls. Nevertheless my HKG friends would not like to bet on an odds on favourite like Huka Falls so I suggest they play win/place on Niceone instead which should pay more than the win dividends on Huka Falls winning, The pace will be good to fast with 3 front running types with 1-6-3 leading and Huka Falss shoild get the rails run but I see Emblessed hassling Huka Falls for the lead before the final turn. Niceone has a good 2nd up record winning twice from 2 1st up starts but has been poor in last 4 starts
HANDICAP DATA
1)HUKA FALLS...FORM***
HR76.6...SF 1:11.556....SECTIONALS ....24.572/23.642=48.214....CLASSY TYPE AND WILL GO UP THE GRADES TO CLASS ONE...SHOO-IN BET
2)BAHEN....FORM***
HR77.1....SF 1:12.05....SECTIONALS 24.99/23.68=48.67....LACKS EARLY SPEED TO BE IN THE FRAY BUT WILL BENEFIT IF THE PACE HOTS UP IF BOTH NICEONE AND EMBLESSED HASSLE HUKA FALLS ALL THE WAY....CLASSY DAM WITH 10 WINS UNDER HER BELT BUT MAY PREFER LONGER
3)NICEONE ....FORM **
HR 75.9 ....SF 1:12.008....SECTIONALS24.09/23.74=47.83...GOOD 2ND UP 2ND UP RECORD OF 2 WINS FROM 2 RUNS. HIS SECTIONALS ARE SUPERIOR TO THE FAVOURITE BUT HR/SF ARE WEAKER...POOR IN LAST 4 RUNS....WILL TUSSLE WITH EMBLESSED FOR LAST QUARTET SPOT....HAS BETTER STRIKE RATE THAN EMBLESSED....VERY CONFIDENT OF A PLACE AT LEAST AND HIS PLACE ODDS MAY BE HIGHER THAN HUKA FALLS WIN ODDS!
4) EMBLESSED .....FORM **
HR 84.8 (OVER 1400M TURF)(HR 79.2 ON POLY) ....SF 1:11.61....SECTIONALS 24.49/24.5=48.99 (IMPRESSIVE IF YOU COMPUTE HIS 2ND SECTIONAL AND YOU WILL GET TOTAL SECTIONALS OF 47.38 BUT HARD TO ASSESS...DARK HORSE WITH A REPORTED RETURN TO FORM REPORT BY TRACKWATCHER
5)TRUDEAU....FORM ***
HR 76.9....SF 11.208....SECTIONALS 24.514/23.694= 48.208.....ACTUALLY HAS SUPERIOR HR/SF AND SECTIONALS COMPARED TO THE ODDS ON FAVOURITE....CAN COVER AS A LIVELY EACH WAY WIN/PLACE CHANCE AT VALUE ODDS....BUT HUKA FALLS HAS LOTS OF SCOPE FOR IMPROVEMENT....IF HE DOES NOT UPSET I FIGURE HE WILL MESS UP EVERYBODY'S TIERCE/QUARTE COMBINATIONS AND UPSET BAHEN FOR THE FORECAST SPOT AT THE LEAST.....SELECTION FOR MY HKG FRIENDS WHO LIKE VALUE BETS
6) GORDON ROBERTS ....FORM XXX (NO HOPER )
MILER/STAYER TYPE NOT SUITED....HAS NOT EVEN PLACED IN SPRINT RACES
7) SIEZE THE DAY....FORM **
HR 84.82...SF 1:11.244....SECTIONALS 23.691//24.661= 48.352...FANCIED BY A FEWBTO TAKE THE 4TH QUARTET SPOT BUT DOES NOT SEEM CLASSY ENOUGH AS EVIDENT IN HIS WEAK SECTIONALS...WILL BE EXPOSED AND CONFIRM THE THEORY THAT A DROP IN HANDICAP WEIGHT DOES NOT MEAN THE HORSE CAN RUN FASTER WHICH IS A COMMON MISTAKE AMONG NEW RACEGOERS...ALTHOUGH HIS PROJECTED SF IS FASTER THAN HUKA FALLS IT DOES NOT MEAN HE CAN ACTUALLY POST THIS SF....
I COULD BE WRONG BUT I AM NOT CONVINCED HE WILL MAKE THE TOP 4
01 January 2013
STARSTATZ RACING AND 5 OTHER PICKS FOR RACE 9 ONLY - 01 JANUARY 2013
01 January 2013
Race 9 New Year Cup
1900M Polytrack
Stakes $200,000
PICKS BY 6 MEMBER MONICKER PANEL
SINGAPORE NAP : **DUJARDIN
STARSTATZ RACING : **DUJARDIN
IIZI (2ND PICK OF STARSTATZ RACING) : **FLYING FULTON
TW (TRACKWATCHER'S FORM PICK) :**FLYING FULTON ....form in order 1-6-2-7
VB (VALUE BET OF THE RACE AS SELECTED BY STARSTAT RACING) : *MAURICE UTRILLO
LS (LONGSHOT OF THE RACE AS PICKED BY STARSTATZ RACING ) : * LIZARRE
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Starstatz Racing will discontinue the full card challenge but if there is sponsor interest from organisations like Starhub we make make this one race sample available for the full card on a paid basis with a $2 a month charge exclusive for Starhub Channel 288 subscribers if the demand is overwhelming ....so do drop us an email and indicate your support and we will bring it to the attention of Starhub Senior Executives as feedback to consider launching this Pilot service exclusive at this price for Channel 288 subscribers! Do give us your support if you find the information useful!
Singapore Nap had an amazing season with 48 wins/26 placings from 102 selections to record the best strike rate of 47.06% of the season albeit on a different format.
To redress this imbalance I shall be launching my own competition which I shall call
"BIG RACE CHALLENGE" (unlike Winner21 Challenge ....all tipsters with a public personna will be invited and those who like to be invited do drop me an email listing your credentials but for space reasons the final decision will rest with the editor of this blog.) in reference to the top class race of each race day. tabulating all the media Tipsters on an equal basis by comparing the top race of the day and for today it is Race 9 and let's see if I can maintain my form in tipping winners in the Cup races including value bets like Mr Raffles and horses like Chase Me in the Derby Keep Away in the Committee Cup like keep Away and Better Life in the Gold Cup. I reckon I should be a safe bet for the Top 5 and a good bet for the Top 3 where Singapore Nap or Starstatz Racing is concerned. I shall also submit 4 new entries(besides Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing ) with monickers IIZI (essentially Starstatz Racing 's 2nd pick of the day). TW (trackwatcher's form pick of the race) VB (essentially Starstatz Racing"s value bet of the race) and LS (Starstatz Racing 's longshot of the day). Frankly I dont expect VB and LS to do well in the tally count but let's see if we will run last. I hope to track VB place bets only to see if we can make money on this type of bet only and for LS to see the long run of misses can be compensated by the win/place dividends to make up for the run of losses. It will be mathematically unlikely that all the 6 entries will remain in the top half of the table and even if VB and LS are in the bottom half let;s see if their returns offer any value. Some tipsters who are not in the top half of the table are constantly looking for the next longshot but I suggest that this is not a good strategy for every single race and it would be better to judge races individually and have the courage to backvalue bets and longshots when appropriate. However I do expect the rest to be in the top half of the table although I forsee it will be tough for IIZI to remain in the top half if Starstatz Racing figures in the top 3 as expected . There will be overlap of selections in some cases as in the case of IIZI and TW today. Starstatz Racing selections are done on a one-man-show basis while working full-time. I intend to showcase it as a iconic showpiece what the racing industry is missing when the figures of hnadicap Ratings(HR) , Speed Figure (SF) , sectional times and a general speed map to see the effectiveness of these handicapping tools in the analysis of races. For example in today's race number 4 Lizarre who appers to be in doubtful form by the trackwatch reports will be a serious threat if he has drop in weight as he has the best HR/SF and sectional times in the race despite the TW report putting 1 as 1st pick the HR is in favour of 6 today but racing is not a science so the final decision lies with the racegoer(not the tipster as he will not know last minute conditions like body weight of horse, condition in paddock, weather conditions and last minute scratchings affecting the pace of the race but I hope to make it easier by providing expertly compiled data adjusted to the weight to the horse is carrying on race day but I still think the best Media Tipster will be a true Late Mail Service where tips are selected and announced after horses move out from the paddock which I have shown for Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing for the past 4 seasons in the 30% to 33% strike rate range but I shall not include last season's performance by Singapore Nap which I consider an anomaly hard to be repeated(just like Moreira's record number of winners for a season) but I shall still try and see if I can break the 50% benchmark figure for this season.
Unlike Winner 21 Challenge who have declined my entry I shall invite Racing Guide , Turf Guide, HS Chan (blogger) for this "BIG RACE CHALLENGE" Do drop me an email if you want to be included and send entries before the start of Race 1 to insiders111@yahoo.com.sg
Winner21 have replied to my request to join the full card challenge with a whimsical(rules are set at their whim and fancy when clearly my standing as an ex-Chief Editor of MDA approved Racing Publication called Insiders Iizi Info- Guide is similar to Kranji Racing's Larry Foley but they chose to put in a rule that they must be nominated. I challenge Winner21 to actually produce the "paperwork for nomination " by the Newpaper or is all this verbal heresay. This state of affairs should not allowed to continue to fester where clearly there is a conflict of interest when a top Racing Publication like Racing Guide under the new Owners has not been invited (especially when there is a pending settlement of a lawsuit payment of approximately $1 million . I knoew the histrory under old Management under Times Publishing where invitation was declined. Surely a competition of this nature and the tabulation of scores should be handled by the STC Team with no biasness regarding invitations(never mind if I am still not invited). If Winner21 had replied with a ridiculous answer like only invitations before the year 2000 are accepted or Internet Media Tipsters above 60 years old are barred I brook this question ....what is the difference between a nomination and no nomination, If the company still exists will they accept the nomination or will they set a new rule that the Racing Publication must still be active even if i was nominated. To make it a meaningful challenge I suggest STC renew an invitation to mainstream publications like Racing Guide and Turf Guide( who were on STC's website previously) and never mind if Starstatz racing and HS Chan are not invited (I think we can live with it).
Here is the full text of winner21 's ridiculous reply and I challenge them to send me a copy of the official nomination by the Newpaper. Perhaps I should drop an email to Tan Thean Loon to expose this anomaly!
I hope Winner21 responds and gives me a reply. My response to the Winner21 reply is that if Larry Foley is in so should I after all we were both in the Top 6 last season and our insights on horse racing can only be good for the image of racing as credible Media Tipsters (or would you rather look at Media Tipsters from a Publication where most of the Tipsters bar one are in the bottom half of the table) .My prediction for this year in this BIG RACE CHALLENGE is that Andrew Frost , Racing Guide , Singapore Nap, Starstatz Racing and Winner 21 will fill the trio spots for this year but I will resrve a special cheer in my heart for Brian Miller, Larry Foley , Tan Thean Loon and Hui Liang and even Joleen to join us and make it a good , fun and exciting race as a sideshow event away from the stresses of the full card Challenge
"Dear Patrick,
Thank you for your support and your interest in being part of the Media Tipster Panel.
After much discussion with the team, we would be still keeping to the original principle, i.e. the tipster would be a member of the press/media when he first joined the tipster panel. And we would only allow new entries based on nomination from the media.
Truly we are very appreciative of your support and the ideas about the sectional time too. We look forward to your continued support
Thank You
The Support Team "
By the way I have given advice that the sectional times for each race to be the 1st 400M and the last 400M of each race so can any member of the public explain to me how to use Punters Way's opening sectonal times at 300M, 500M 700M,800M , 900M and an even more ridiculous 1100M for today's Race 9 has helped them in picking out winners
In the season just ended Andrew Frost won the Internet/Print Media Challenge with a consistent and outstanding performance with a record breaking 318 wins from 993 selections for an impressive 32.02% strike rate with Racing Guide as I had predicted in the last Quarter that they would pip Winner21 for the coveted 2nd spot with a repsectable score of 314 wins for a strike rate of 31.62% and Winner21 in 3rd with 312 wins for a 31.42% strike rate. Brian Miller was the most improved performer of the season with expert coaching (just like Theo Walcott being coached or given tips by Thierry Henry) while Starstatz Racing dropped to 5th spot (beset by family health problems to be given top priority and work commitments) with 299 wins for a decent 30.11% strike rate and Larry Foley was the best of the rest who missed the 30% benchmark with 291 wins for a 29.31% strike rate!
PREVIEW OF RACE
The pace will be slow with Goodpack getting the rails run with Ready To Strike alongside him in 2nd spot at least for the 1st 400M.on pace runners 8-6-1 will put some pressure but 7 will dictate the pace. For my HKG friends who like longshots bets I recommend Lizarre who has the best handicap and speed figure and best sectinal times but he appears to be not at his best where form is concerned so a token bet will suffice unless his weight drops slightly further. Lizarre actually has a HR of 117.35 while 2 has a HR of 114.83 but the figure was based on 1800M in soft going on turf while my pick named after French Oscar winner Jean Dujardin in the film "the Artist" With a 2 kg adjustment and the extra 300M Dujardin with HR 109.43 might just upset the applecart and topple the favourite Flying Fulton at HR 107.21 .Goodpack has a poor
HR 104.15 but he can improve with superior SF and sectional times compared to 2 and with the slow pace to suit his front running style and I wont bet against hm dropping into 3rd spot. I suggest a value medium each way bet on Dujardin with a big bet on forecast/ place forecast on a 3 way box on 6#1#2.
In order my selections are 6-1-2-7-4-8-3. I suggest a double banker on 6 and 1 on the 1st line as Flying Fulton can still win and for those on a budget I suggest to put 6-1-2-7-4 on the 2nd and 3rd lines with the remainder on the 4th line. SECTIONAL TIMES NOT SO USEFUL TODAY AS WE HAVE THIS DATA FOR ONLY SOME HORSES
HANDICAP DATA
1) FLYING FULTON : FORM ***
HR 107.21 ( 1600M POLY ) SF 1:58.86....sectionals 25.909/23.42= 49.329...Likely 1st favourite and still the horse to beat
2) MAURICE UTRILLO : FORM ***
HR 114.83 (1800M ON TURF...SOFT GOING)....1:59.21.....sectionals (25.599...actual not available but this is time clocked by race leader so his actual is slower)/25.889 = (51.496) ...done in lower company so could improve. I am disappointed that STC have still not got their act together with the wrong sectionals displayed (showing Speedy Ahead instead)
3) BLACK ICE ; FORM *
HR 117.18 (1800M POLY) .....SF and sectionals not available...poor in last 3 runs
4) LIZARRE : FORM **
HR 117.35 ....SF 1:57.923....sectionals 25.51/23.729 = 49.239....poor in last 6 runs but training well...likely longshot if there is drop in weight as he has best HR/2ND BEST SF(I stand corrected) /BEST SECTIONALS
5) TENZING : FORM XXX (NO HOPER)
HR 106.65 (2000M ON TURF....YIELDING ....SF and sectionals not available
6) DUJARDIN : ***
HR 109.43 (1400M TURF ON YIELDING).....SF and sectionals not available....2kg for a head beaten difference and an extra 300M might just be enough for him to turn the tables on Flying Fulton at good value
7) GOODPACK : FORM ***
HR 104.15....SF 1:57.568....sectionals 25.41/24.65 = 50.06...despite having best SF in race his weak HR and weak sectionals makes him vulnerable to be edged by 7 YO Maurice Utrillo for the 3rd spot.....his performance will show that SF is not the best handicapping tool to assess races but is an improver
8) THE RUDE WARRIOR : FORM **
HR 103.43 (1800M POLY)....1:57.644...sectionals 25.359/ 24.46 = 49.819...low HR will make it tough despite fairly impressive sectionals...needs fast pace to do well to break into top 4 ...badly underscaled at 39kg if this was a true handicap race despite training well
9) READY TO STRIKE : FORM X (NOT LIKELY)
HR 107.71(1600M ON TURF) ...SF and sectionals not available
10) KING FAALCON : FORM *
HR 108.64 ( 2000M TURF ) ....SF and sectionals not available ( possible but unlikely spoiler for to 4 positions to force a carry over quartet jackpot and has HR to match but reportedly in poor form...check body weight before deciding)
Race 9 New Year Cup
1900M Polytrack
Stakes $200,000
PICKS BY 6 MEMBER MONICKER PANEL
SINGAPORE NAP : **DUJARDIN
STARSTATZ RACING : **DUJARDIN
IIZI (2ND PICK OF STARSTATZ RACING) : **FLYING FULTON
TW (TRACKWATCHER'S FORM PICK) :**FLYING FULTON ....form in order 1-6-2-7
VB (VALUE BET OF THE RACE AS SELECTED BY STARSTAT RACING) : *MAURICE UTRILLO
LS (LONGSHOT OF THE RACE AS PICKED BY STARSTATZ RACING ) : * LIZARRE
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Starstatz Racing will discontinue the full card challenge but if there is sponsor interest from organisations like Starhub we make make this one race sample available for the full card on a paid basis with a $2 a month charge exclusive for Starhub Channel 288 subscribers if the demand is overwhelming ....so do drop us an email and indicate your support and we will bring it to the attention of Starhub Senior Executives as feedback to consider launching this Pilot service exclusive at this price for Channel 288 subscribers! Do give us your support if you find the information useful!
Singapore Nap had an amazing season with 48 wins/26 placings from 102 selections to record the best strike rate of 47.06% of the season albeit on a different format.
To redress this imbalance I shall be launching my own competition which I shall call
"BIG RACE CHALLENGE" (unlike Winner21 Challenge ....all tipsters with a public personna will be invited and those who like to be invited do drop me an email listing your credentials but for space reasons the final decision will rest with the editor of this blog.) in reference to the top class race of each race day. tabulating all the media Tipsters on an equal basis by comparing the top race of the day and for today it is Race 9 and let's see if I can maintain my form in tipping winners in the Cup races including value bets like Mr Raffles and horses like Chase Me in the Derby Keep Away in the Committee Cup like keep Away and Better Life in the Gold Cup. I reckon I should be a safe bet for the Top 5 and a good bet for the Top 3 where Singapore Nap or Starstatz Racing is concerned. I shall also submit 4 new entries(besides Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing ) with monickers IIZI (essentially Starstatz Racing 's 2nd pick of the day). TW (trackwatcher's form pick of the race) VB (essentially Starstatz Racing"s value bet of the race) and LS (Starstatz Racing 's longshot of the day). Frankly I dont expect VB and LS to do well in the tally count but let's see if we will run last. I hope to track VB place bets only to see if we can make money on this type of bet only and for LS to see the long run of misses can be compensated by the win/place dividends to make up for the run of losses. It will be mathematically unlikely that all the 6 entries will remain in the top half of the table and even if VB and LS are in the bottom half let;s see if their returns offer any value. Some tipsters who are not in the top half of the table are constantly looking for the next longshot but I suggest that this is not a good strategy for every single race and it would be better to judge races individually and have the courage to backvalue bets and longshots when appropriate. However I do expect the rest to be in the top half of the table although I forsee it will be tough for IIZI to remain in the top half if Starstatz Racing figures in the top 3 as expected . There will be overlap of selections in some cases as in the case of IIZI and TW today. Starstatz Racing selections are done on a one-man-show basis while working full-time. I intend to showcase it as a iconic showpiece what the racing industry is missing when the figures of hnadicap Ratings(HR) , Speed Figure (SF) , sectional times and a general speed map to see the effectiveness of these handicapping tools in the analysis of races. For example in today's race number 4 Lizarre who appers to be in doubtful form by the trackwatch reports will be a serious threat if he has drop in weight as he has the best HR/SF and sectional times in the race despite the TW report putting 1 as 1st pick the HR is in favour of 6 today but racing is not a science so the final decision lies with the racegoer(not the tipster as he will not know last minute conditions like body weight of horse, condition in paddock, weather conditions and last minute scratchings affecting the pace of the race but I hope to make it easier by providing expertly compiled data adjusted to the weight to the horse is carrying on race day but I still think the best Media Tipster will be a true Late Mail Service where tips are selected and announced after horses move out from the paddock which I have shown for Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing for the past 4 seasons in the 30% to 33% strike rate range but I shall not include last season's performance by Singapore Nap which I consider an anomaly hard to be repeated(just like Moreira's record number of winners for a season) but I shall still try and see if I can break the 50% benchmark figure for this season.
Unlike Winner 21 Challenge who have declined my entry I shall invite Racing Guide , Turf Guide, HS Chan (blogger) for this "BIG RACE CHALLENGE" Do drop me an email if you want to be included and send entries before the start of Race 1 to insiders111@yahoo.com.sg
Winner21 have replied to my request to join the full card challenge with a whimsical(rules are set at their whim and fancy when clearly my standing as an ex-Chief Editor of MDA approved Racing Publication called Insiders Iizi Info- Guide is similar to Kranji Racing's Larry Foley but they chose to put in a rule that they must be nominated. I challenge Winner21 to actually produce the "paperwork for nomination " by the Newpaper or is all this verbal heresay. This state of affairs should not allowed to continue to fester where clearly there is a conflict of interest when a top Racing Publication like Racing Guide under the new Owners has not been invited (especially when there is a pending settlement of a lawsuit payment of approximately $1 million . I knoew the histrory under old Management under Times Publishing where invitation was declined. Surely a competition of this nature and the tabulation of scores should be handled by the STC Team with no biasness regarding invitations(never mind if I am still not invited). If Winner21 had replied with a ridiculous answer like only invitations before the year 2000 are accepted or Internet Media Tipsters above 60 years old are barred I brook this question ....what is the difference between a nomination and no nomination, If the company still exists will they accept the nomination or will they set a new rule that the Racing Publication must still be active even if i was nominated. To make it a meaningful challenge I suggest STC renew an invitation to mainstream publications like Racing Guide and Turf Guide( who were on STC's website previously) and never mind if Starstatz racing and HS Chan are not invited (I think we can live with it).
Here is the full text of winner21 's ridiculous reply and I challenge them to send me a copy of the official nomination by the Newpaper. Perhaps I should drop an email to Tan Thean Loon to expose this anomaly!
I hope Winner21 responds and gives me a reply. My response to the Winner21 reply is that if Larry Foley is in so should I after all we were both in the Top 6 last season and our insights on horse racing can only be good for the image of racing as credible Media Tipsters (or would you rather look at Media Tipsters from a Publication where most of the Tipsters bar one are in the bottom half of the table) .My prediction for this year in this BIG RACE CHALLENGE is that Andrew Frost , Racing Guide , Singapore Nap, Starstatz Racing and Winner 21 will fill the trio spots for this year but I will resrve a special cheer in my heart for Brian Miller, Larry Foley , Tan Thean Loon and Hui Liang and even Joleen to join us and make it a good , fun and exciting race as a sideshow event away from the stresses of the full card Challenge
"Dear Patrick,
Thank you for your support and your interest in being part of the Media Tipster Panel.
After much discussion with the team, we would be still keeping to the original principle, i.e. the tipster would be a member of the press/media when he first joined the tipster panel. And we would only allow new entries based on nomination from the media.
Truly we are very appreciative of your support and the ideas about the sectional time too. We look forward to your continued support
Thank You
The Support Team "
By the way I have given advice that the sectional times for each race to be the 1st 400M and the last 400M of each race so can any member of the public explain to me how to use Punters Way's opening sectonal times at 300M, 500M 700M,800M , 900M and an even more ridiculous 1100M for today's Race 9 has helped them in picking out winners
In the season just ended Andrew Frost won the Internet/Print Media Challenge with a consistent and outstanding performance with a record breaking 318 wins from 993 selections for an impressive 32.02% strike rate with Racing Guide as I had predicted in the last Quarter that they would pip Winner21 for the coveted 2nd spot with a repsectable score of 314 wins for a strike rate of 31.62% and Winner21 in 3rd with 312 wins for a 31.42% strike rate. Brian Miller was the most improved performer of the season with expert coaching (just like Theo Walcott being coached or given tips by Thierry Henry) while Starstatz Racing dropped to 5th spot (beset by family health problems to be given top priority and work commitments) with 299 wins for a decent 30.11% strike rate and Larry Foley was the best of the rest who missed the 30% benchmark with 291 wins for a 29.31% strike rate!
PREVIEW OF RACE
The pace will be slow with Goodpack getting the rails run with Ready To Strike alongside him in 2nd spot at least for the 1st 400M.on pace runners 8-6-1 will put some pressure but 7 will dictate the pace. For my HKG friends who like longshots bets I recommend Lizarre who has the best handicap and speed figure and best sectinal times but he appears to be not at his best where form is concerned so a token bet will suffice unless his weight drops slightly further. Lizarre actually has a HR of 117.35 while 2 has a HR of 114.83 but the figure was based on 1800M in soft going on turf while my pick named after French Oscar winner Jean Dujardin in the film "the Artist" With a 2 kg adjustment and the extra 300M Dujardin with HR 109.43 might just upset the applecart and topple the favourite Flying Fulton at HR 107.21 .Goodpack has a poor
HR 104.15 but he can improve with superior SF and sectional times compared to 2 and with the slow pace to suit his front running style and I wont bet against hm dropping into 3rd spot. I suggest a value medium each way bet on Dujardin with a big bet on forecast/ place forecast on a 3 way box on 6#1#2.
In order my selections are 6-1-2-7-4-8-3. I suggest a double banker on 6 and 1 on the 1st line as Flying Fulton can still win and for those on a budget I suggest to put 6-1-2-7-4 on the 2nd and 3rd lines with the remainder on the 4th line. SECTIONAL TIMES NOT SO USEFUL TODAY AS WE HAVE THIS DATA FOR ONLY SOME HORSES
HANDICAP DATA
1) FLYING FULTON : FORM ***
HR 107.21 ( 1600M POLY ) SF 1:58.86....sectionals 25.909/23.42= 49.329...Likely 1st favourite and still the horse to beat
2) MAURICE UTRILLO : FORM ***
HR 114.83 (1800M ON TURF...SOFT GOING)....1:59.21.....sectionals (25.599...actual not available but this is time clocked by race leader so his actual is slower)/25.889 = (51.496) ...done in lower company so could improve. I am disappointed that STC have still not got their act together with the wrong sectionals displayed (showing Speedy Ahead instead)
3) BLACK ICE ; FORM *
HR 117.18 (1800M POLY) .....SF and sectionals not available...poor in last 3 runs
4) LIZARRE : FORM **
HR 117.35 ....SF 1:57.923....sectionals 25.51/23.729 = 49.239....poor in last 6 runs but training well...likely longshot if there is drop in weight as he has best HR/2ND BEST SF(I stand corrected) /BEST SECTIONALS
5) TENZING : FORM XXX (NO HOPER)
HR 106.65 (2000M ON TURF....YIELDING ....SF and sectionals not available
6) DUJARDIN : ***
HR 109.43 (1400M TURF ON YIELDING).....SF and sectionals not available....2kg for a head beaten difference and an extra 300M might just be enough for him to turn the tables on Flying Fulton at good value
7) GOODPACK : FORM ***
HR 104.15....SF 1:57.568....sectionals 25.41/24.65 = 50.06...despite having best SF in race his weak HR and weak sectionals makes him vulnerable to be edged by 7 YO Maurice Utrillo for the 3rd spot.....his performance will show that SF is not the best handicapping tool to assess races but is an improver
8) THE RUDE WARRIOR : FORM **
HR 103.43 (1800M POLY)....1:57.644...sectionals 25.359/ 24.46 = 49.819...low HR will make it tough despite fairly impressive sectionals...needs fast pace to do well to break into top 4 ...badly underscaled at 39kg if this was a true handicap race despite training well
9) READY TO STRIKE : FORM X (NOT LIKELY)
HR 107.71(1600M ON TURF) ...SF and sectionals not available
10) KING FAALCON : FORM *
HR 108.64 ( 2000M TURF ) ....SF and sectionals not available ( possible but unlikely spoiler for to 4 positions to force a carry over quartet jackpot and has HR to match but reportedly in poor form...check body weight before deciding)
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