SINGAPORE RACING 13 JANUARY 2013 ...SELECTIONS BY STARSTATZ RACING AND 4 OTHER MONICKER TIPS

Singapore Racing
13 January 2013

Race 8 Kranji Stakes A
1200M Polytrack
Stakes $125,000
STARSTATZ RACING PICKS 2) **GOAL KEEPER
IIZI(2ND PICK) PICKS 1) ***CAPTAIN OBVIOUS
TW (TRACK WATCHER )PICKS 6)** GOAL KEEPER....6-2-1-5
VB (VALUE BET) PICKS 1) ***CAPTAIN OBVIOUS
LS(LONGSHOT ) PICKS 2) **SPEEDY CAT SINCE EITHER CAPTAIN OBVIOUS OR GOALKEEPER WILL BE 1ST FAVOURITE AND UNDER THE TERMS OF SELECTION I AM NOT ALLOWED TO SELECT  THE FAVOURITE

BACKGROUND INFORMATION
The fast pace allowed Martincho Cat who co-incidentally had a high HR to edge Super Good in the last few strides before the Winning Post.. Singapore Nap and a couple of last seasons leading with 2 wins and 1 placing after 4 selections and LS is a clear 2nd with 2 wins only while Jun Ru and VB(value bet) bring up the tail end with a horde of tipsters in between sitting on a solitary win on Huka Falls. I have made a serious error in my HR calculations mistaking this race for a normal Handicap race when this is a Kranji Stakes A race weher all the horses are running underscaled in comparison to number 1 , Captain Obvious....Goalkeeper by 8.5kg and Emerald Hill by 14.5kg and Cash Dot Dot Com by a heavy 19 kg. This upsets all the HR calculations and will tend to favour the top weights especially number 1.Their HRs are now 1) 116.3 2) 108.7 3) 119.6 (can be ignored because of abysmal form 4) 106.8 5) 108.7 6) 104.7 7) 103.03

PREVIEW OF RACE
Most of the Media Tipsters think this race is between the unbeaten Emerald Hill , the classy Captain Obvious and the unbeaten Poly Track specialist Goalkeeper.Andrew Frost and and a few of the Media Tipsters seem to think that Goalkeeper has gone off the boil as he was a course scratching in his last aborted start.However he did do an impressive trial recently and I am inclined to think (with the support of the eagle eye of Tan Thean Loon) that Goal Keeper will not be an entry for this race if he was not race fit.The Trainer would want him to keep his proud unbeaten record on the Polytrack. With this in mind and a caveat to double check his bodyweight before making a final decision I will make an assumption that all the main contenders are race fit so my decision will be based strictly on their handicap data.The best HR actually belongs to Fighter Jet but his form is abysmal and he has been poor for the last 8 runs. On HR alone Speedy Cat has the next best HR followed by Cash Dot Com .Against this we have the class
of Goal Keeper and Emerald Hill and the obvious(pardon the pun) Dragon like form of Captain Obvious who is reportedly in fine fettle as reported through various track reports by Andrew Frost and the Newpaper and they could well be right. Although the good Captain has won on the Polytrack before I rate him a better wet turf track specialist and I truly believe the younger promising upstarts will expose him to be vulnerable at 59.5kg. In theory Emerald Hill has the 2nd best SF(just 0.15 seconds slower than the projected SF of Cash Dot Com ) but as seen before a projected drop in weight does not mean a horse will travel faster and that unbeaten winning horses like Goal Keeper and Emerald Hill have till today not found their best SF and will likely improve even further when challenged! If Goal Keeper wins today it would highlight the use of sectional times as a serious handicapping tool as on paper Emerald Hill has a better HR and SF than Goal Keeper but Goal Keeper has superior sectionals by 0,326 seconds (and Goal Keeper has an astonishing closing sectional of 22.15 seconds for the last 400M ....a truly amazing finishing burst comparable to Rocket Man's benchmark figures. I would rule out Fighter Jet from all exotic bet combinations and if on a budget I would eliminate Excavator as well.That would leave me with in order 2-1-5-7. I am quietly confident that Goal Keeper would maintain his unbeaten status on Polytracks and that he would at least run a place so a medium to big bet on win/place is in order. In addition I would place a big bet on 2#1 for forecast  I suggest the main bet for tierce/quartet betting should be 2-1/2-1/5-7/5-7. . I expect the pace to be good with 2 front runners (2-7)but if they do a fast and furious pace Captain Obvious will come to the fore and upset the 2 race favourites. I HAVE AMMENDED MY POSITION FROM THE STANCE I TOOK ON SINGAPORE NAP AND 1 IS NOW A CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER AND HIS HR ADVANTAGE LOOKS OMINOUS FOR THE REST BUT I AM STUBBORNLY STICKING TO GOALKEEPER WHICH MAY BE MY UNDOING. I HAVE NOW DECIDED TO UPGRADE 1 TO 2ND PICK ABOVE 6 AND FOR THE EXOTICS I WILL USE 2 BANKERS (2 AND 1 ) AND CONCENTRATE ON ONLY 2-1-5-7 WITH THE CORRECT ORDER THE ONLY QUESTION MARK? PERFECT RACE TO SHOWCASE HANDICAPPING THEORIES ON WHICH FACTOR IS IMPORTANT IN ANALYSING RACES

I APOLOGISE FOR THE HR CALCULATIONS BEING SKEWED ON SINGAPORE NAP AND HAVE PROVIDED THE CORRECT HR IN THE BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOVE

REMAINING HANDICAP DATA
1) CAPTAIN OBVIOUS : FORM ***
SF 1:11.857 (WEAK HR FIGURES IN CONTRAST TO BEST HR FIGURES IN THE FIELD....SECTIONALS 24.462/24.332=48.794...IF HE WINS IT CONFIRMS THE THEORY THAT HR IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HANDICAP DATA. PROBABLY THE HORSE TO BEAT BASED ON HR RATINGS.....CLASSY TYPE WITH OVERSEAS WIN CREDENTIALS AND STRONGLY ADVANTAGED BY THE HANDICAP TERMS IN THIS RACE
2) GOALKEEPER : FORM ***
SF 1:10.86 .....SECTIONALS 25.31/22.15= 47.46 (BEST SECTIONALS)....SHOWCASE EXAMPLE ON HOW SECTIONALS MIGHT BE THE KEY WHEN OTHER HORSES HAVE SUPERIOR HR (1) AND SUPERIOR SF(6)....2 MAY LOSE TO 1 ON HR BUT HE IS LIKELY TO BEAT 6 TO PROVE THAT JUDICIOUS USE OF SECTIONALS TO UNCOVER A MORE CLASSY HORSE IN THE FACE OF SUPERIOR SPEED FIGURES
3) FIGHTER JET : FORM XXX
4) EXCAVATOR : FORM *
SF 1;11.287 ....SECTIONALS 24.336/24.056=48.392
5) SPEEDY CAT : FORM **
SF 1:10.72 ...SECTIONALS.....24.152/23.572=47.724....2ND BEST SECTIONALS....STRONG CASE FOR SECTIONALS IF GOALKEEPER WINS AND HE RUNS 2ND
6) EMERALD HILL : FORM ***.....SCRATCHED
SF1:10.72 ...SECTIONALS 24.433/23.353= 47.786....2ND BEST SF IN THIS FIELD...CLASSY TYPE
7) CASH DOT COM : FORM **
SF 1:10.57 ...SECTIONALS 23.897/23.95 = 47.847....STRONG CASE TO PROVE THAT HORSES ENJOYING DROP IN HANDICAP WEIGHT WILL NOT RUN FASTER DESPITE HAVING BEST PROJECTED SF IN THIS RACE...WILL BE SURPRISED IF HE GATECRASHES THE TOP 4 SPOTS DESPITE HIS SUPPOSEDLY SUPERIOR SPEED....WILL CONFIRM THE HYPE SURROUNDING SPEED FIGURES BEING LESS IMPORTANT AS A HANDICAPPING TOOL