REPLICATION OF SINGAPORE NAP 30 SEPTEMBER 2012

Singapore Nap 30 September 2012

Ronnie Brown ( X 2 )

Race 10 Jubilee Stakes - Open Class

1400M D Long Course

Stakes $200,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Singapore Nap missed the win on Goal Keeper but Starstatz Racing with imput from my in house track watch report hedged the bets by selecting Goal Keeper. Singapore Nap is now on 38 wins/18 placings from 80 selections(47.5%). Andrew Frost faltered with 2 wins on 28 September while Racing Guide and Starstatz Racing are neck and neck with 3 wins thereby cutting Frosty's lead to 9 wins. I expect Frosty to bounce back with a good showing on Sunday as it is hard to keep a good man down! AF is now on 248 wins from maximum of 761 selections with 32.59% and Racing Guide and Starstatz Racing are joint 3rd with 239 selections to be on 31.41% in the full card challenge.

PREVIEW OF RACE

Due to pressing post datelines let me state that my selection is based on bloodstock analysis that Huka Falls will eventually end up in Class 1 but he is more of a miler/stayer type and may not cope with the early speed of Ronnie Brown who will likewise end up in Class 1. On HR/SF and sectional times(comparing same distances) the best past performance is from Klever Man who can't spell to save his life but he is certainly a smart type and will give the 2 favourites a run for their money but if you study trip handicapping( as well as bloodstock analysis) then Ronnie Brown is my selection based on his manner

 of victory.

In order my selections are 4/3-7/2-8-1-6(leave out 6 if there are budget constraints. Place a 3*** win bet on Ronnie Brown and use hin as the sole banker on the 1st line and use 3-7 as key horses on the 2nd line and add at least 2-8-1 to 3 and 7 for the 3rd and 4th lines. Just in case Ronnie Brown fails to win do a big bet on Forecast/place forecast on 4#3-7 as I expect RB to win or run 2nd.

Singapore Nap selects number 4 Ronnie Brown ( X2 )

Next Singapore Nap 05 October 2012

Supplied in Singapore by Patrick Khoo

SINGAPORE NAP 30 SEPTEMBER 2012

TODAY WILL NOT BE EASY FOR MEDIA TIPSTER TO GET HIGH SCORES BUT THERE ARE SOME INTRIGUING BETS TO BE MADE TODAY....MOREIRA WILL GET THE LOWER RANGE OF HIS USUAL QUOTA OF WINNERS WITH 3-4 THE LIKELY SCORE.
THESE ARE MY SELECTIONS TODAY:-
RACE 1 *5-9/10-8
RACE 2 ***5-9/1-6...BEST DIRECT QUARTET....BEST BET OF THE DAY
RACE 3 **6-7/10-4
RACE 5 **3-4/7-6.... GOOD DRECT TERCE/QUARTET...3 HAS BEST HT AND 7 HAS BEST SECT TIMES
RACE 6 * 2-8/6-11.... OPEN RACE
RACE 7 **2-1/9-6....BEST LONGSHOT  OF THE DAY.....1 HAS CLASS AND CAN COVER
RACE 8 **2-5/6-1
RACE 9 * 1-3/2-12...OPEN RACE
RACE 10 ***4-3-7/2-8-1-6
RACE 11 **5-6/4-3
RACE 12 **10-2/3-4....BEST VALUE BET

REPLICATION OF SINGAPORE NAP 28 SEPTEMBER 2012

Singapore Nap 28  September 2012

 El Milagro ( X 2 )

Race 8 Open B97

1200M Polytrack

Stakes $95,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Singapore Nap's tip against Mr Big went up in smoke when Mr Big managed to crossover and get the rails runs.....what was supposed to be a frentic and fast pace turned out otherwise and with a soft lead had plenty of petrol left in the tank when challenged in the home straight.

On the Media Tipster Challenge Singapore Nap on a different format is leading with 48.1% with 38 wins/17 placings from 79 selections. Andrew Frost bounced back with a vengeance and did a top of the table performance with 7 wins on 23 September and Racing Guide and Hui Liang bagged 6 winners while Starstatz Racing did a credible 5 wins with another direct quartet bonus in Race 2 with Devil's Cut, Fei Yue, Moova Bullet and Telescopic finished in the exact order ie the tierce of $19 and the quartet of $109 was achieved with a minimum bet of $2 each.....a reader emailed me his winning tickets where he struck 5 quartet and 10 tierce tickets with multiple bets of $2 each (when I can get hold of a scanner I will try to post it for reference as proof of this achievement and proof that people are listening to this relatively unknown blogger in racing. This is at least my 3rd direct quartet of the season! It reflects the relative strength of my handicap system in putting Fei Yue(experienced over race distance) ahead of Moova Bullet when the market considered Moova Bullet. For Telescopic an unknown newcomer can be attributed to the good work by my in-house track watcher. Of course the final factor was plain "Lady Luck"

On the full card challenge Andrew Frost has shown he is not a spent force and it will be difficult to overcome a 10 cushion lead but we now have have Winner 21 within our crosshairs and Racing Guide with the efferverscent and indomnitable 2010 Champion Media Tipster Steve Levar will not throw in the towel until the Fat Lady sings in December and let's hope the issue is still not settled mathematically on the last day culminating in a photo finish on the final day. Andrew is looking to score a double while I (unofficial top Internet/Print Media Tipster for season 2009 with all emails sent to Senior Management of STC and Press Corp with a copy of my email sent to one representative from each participating publication) will be striving hard to compete and hopefully keep my proud record of being in the the top 2 for strike rates for the past 3 seasongap can be closed. It would pay to follow Andrew Frost, Starstatz Racing and Racing Guide but you would have to subscribe to the Winner21 SMS service to view their selections!

Andrew Frost is sitting proudly in the lead with 246 wnners from a maximum of 751 selections for a 32.76% WIth all the fierce competition the winner may have to surpass 33% to be fully assured of being Champion for this year or close to it!. Winner 21 is close behing with 244 wins (32.49%) and Starstatz Racing and Racing Guide are jointly tied on 236 wins for a 31.42% and Brian Miller at 230 wins (30.63%) and Hui Liang at 223 wins(30.23%) are the best of the rest aabove the 30% benchmark to make the top 6.

Today I shall be doing the full handicap data for the top 7 picks to illustrate the strength of the system based on 3 fndamentals....Handicap Ratings(HR).....Speed Figures(SF) and sectional times(a superior handicapping tool but not a stand alone tool).

PREVIEW OF RACE

This will be a battle royale between 3 candidates and the best part is that the 3rd horse in this mix will bring value to the forecast/place forecast dividends. The 3 protagonists are Goal Keeper (1st favourite with justification despite wide barrier draw), El Milagro (2nd favourite with the Moreira factor making it a strong candidate and Grand Arrival(relatively under the radar). The 3rd favourite Cash Dot Com is my 5th pick and an each way chance for placing while Excavator is a wild one and I expect him to run unplaced with a weak HR. Goal Keeper has the early gatespeed to jump 2nd but Beasley will be wise to relax the horse in an on pace position and with luck sit 2 wide off the rails in this race where the pace is expected to be fast and furious with Cash Dot Com leading from 4 other fronts. Newcomer Winner 21 will be looking to gatecrash this elite party of past Champions but we shall see if the gap can be closed. It would pay to follow Andrew Frost, Starstatz Racing and Racing Guide but you would have to subscribe to the Winner21 SMS service to view their selections!

Andrew Frost is sitting proudly in the lead with 246 wnners from a maximum of 751 selections for a 32.76% WIth all the fierce competition the winner may have to surpass 33% to be fully assured of being Champion for this year or close to it!. Winner 21 is close behing with 244 wins (32.49%) and Starstatz Racing and Racing Guide are jointly tied on 236 wins for a 31.42% and Brian Miller at 230 wins (30.63%) and Hui Liang at 223 wins(30.23%) are the best of the rest aabove the 30% benchmark to make the top 6.

Today I shall be doing the full handicap data for the top 7 picks to illustrate the strength of the system based on 3 fndamentals....Handicap Ratings(HR).....Speed Figures(SF) and sectional times(a superior handicapping tool but not a stand alone tool).

PREVIEW OF RACE

This will be a battle royale between 3 candidates and the best part is that the 3rd horse in this mix will bring value to the forecast/place forecast dividends. The 3 protagonists are Goal Keeper (1st favourite with justification despite wide barrier draw), El Milagro (2nd favourite with the Moreira factor making it a strong candidate and Grand Arrival(relatively under the radar). The 3rd favourite Cash Dot Com is my 5th pick and an each way chance for placing while Excavator is a wild one and I expect him to run unplaced with a weak HR. Goal Keeper has the early gatespeed to jump 2nd but Beasley will be wise to relax the horse in an on pace position and with luck sit 2 wide off the rails in this race where the pace is expected to be fast and furious with Cash Dot Com leading from 4 other front running types. However my in house track watcher indicates that Goal Keeper 's form is not as strong as El Milagro. El Milagro has drawn well and should get the box seat behind the fast pace that will be slower with My Son ( a speed influence) now withdrawn .

In order my selections are. 8-3-5/9-7-10-2.....and I recommend a big 3*** win/place bet on El Milargro . Main forecast /place forecast bet should be 8#3-5 .Also put a smaller box bet on 3#8#5 as cover for forecast/place forecast and Use 8 as the sole banker and 3-5 as key horses on the 2nd line and as a cover you can put 3-5 on the 1st line and 8 on the 2nd line. In the remaining 3rd and 4th lines add

9-7-10-2 to the original two of 3 and 5.

HANDICAP DATA

2) RED BEARD ...HR 85.67....SF 1:11.953.....SECTIONALS AT 1100M ONLY 23.822/23.688 (1200M EXTRAPOLATION AT APPROXIMATELY 49.071....CLASSY TYPE BUT POOR HR FIGURES

3) GOALKEEPER: HR92.17.....SF 1:11.303...SECT. TIMES 23.492/22.132= 45.624....strike rate of 6 from 11 starts(54.55% shows his class).....has par excellent fresh 1st up start record of 3 wins/1 place for 5 1st up starts despite 110 days away from races.....He has a devastating turn of foot in the last 400M and you can queue up and collect your as he ranges alongside any race leader in the last 300M....check his body weight before betting. His early gatespeed will enable Beasley to pick his spot and find cover wide off the rails before easing the horse behind the hot pace. His closing 400M sectionals are awesome a good 1.326 seconds better than El Milagro! The horse to beat with the wide draw the only negative factor! Track reports indicate he is not as sharp as 8. The other moot point is that his 1st up wins were after short breaks while this time the break is 110 days and according to track reports he has lost some of lustre and sparkling form.

5) Grand Arrival: HR 94.16(superior handicap to both 3 and 8)....SF1:10.7(superior SF to Goalkeeper but weak sectionals will be his achilles heel in winning but good value bet to play place only) SECT TIMES....24.913/22.913= 47.826....strong place chances with value. 3rd best sectionals

7) CASH DOT COM: HR 96.16.....SF1:10.692(BEST SF but weak sectionals hides a weak underbelly) .....SECT TIMES: 24.222/23.882= 48.104....5th best sectionals

8) EL MILAGRO: HR 93.5....SF 1:11.115....SECT TIMES 24.328/23.458= 47.786....has better sectionals than 5 but weaker than 3....has class with 6 wins from 12 races...a 50% strike rate....has 2nd best sectionals in race.....Smartest track work shown in this race...the star for others to beat!

9) MASTHEAD: HR 96.16(extrapolated from 1400M on yielding turf track)....SF1:11.97(extrapolated from 1100M poly win).....SECT TIMES....25.853/23.836=48.836

also has best 1100M sectionals at 24.146/22.569=46.715 (estimated to be approx 48.276 at 1200M....please ensure do not compare 1100M sectionals and 1200M sectionals directly. Has disappointed and generally flattered to deceive despite impressive Australian record....but will now improve after being gelded(remember Sebastian!)....the only concern is that he did impressive trials with blinkers and he is not wearing them on race day is a slight concern on his intentions.

10) NICEONE: HR 94.16...SF 1:11.227....SECT TIMES 23.512/24.622=48.134....6th best sectional times. Impressive win strike rate of 5 wins from 9 races ie best win strike rate of 55.55%....weak sectionals will be his undoing....long shot for 3rd/4th quartet spots

 

 Singapore Nap selects: number 8 El Milagro ( X 2 )

Next Singapore Nap 30 September 2012

Supplied in Singapore by Patrick Khoo

STARSTATZ RACING 28 SEPTEMBER 2012

Moreira will have a bountiful day with serious chances and will likely score a minimum of 5 wins today and the rest will either win or place and he is likely to be at least 3rd for all his rides today.
I will post my replication of Singapore Nap with the selection of Race 8 *** El Milagro and in order my picks will be 8-3-5/9-7-10-2.
My selections today are:-
RACE 1 *7-9/5-11
RACE 2 *8-5/10-12....8 has better trial tmes but 5 is classy type and can cover 5
RACE 3 ***5-1/7-6....1 likely to be favourite and 5 is the value bet of the day
RACE 4 **2-12/7-4...2 is classy type but 12 has better handicap
RACE 5 ***1-8/4-3....best direct quartet of the day
RACE 6 **5-6/2-1
RACE 7 *2-8/9-10...OPEN RACE
RACE 8 ***3-8/5-9-7-10-2....9 JUST GELDED AND SHOULD IMPROVE...DID IMPRESIVE TRIAL WITH BLINKERS BUT TODAY WITHOUT.....I AM HEDGING MY BETS AND GOING FOR 3 ON STARSTATZ RACING INSTEAD OF 8 ON SINGAPORE NAP
RACE 9 **2-9/4-8
RACE 10 **9-6/5-10

REPLICATION OF POSTING ON SINGAPORE NAP WHICH MISSED POSTING DEADLINE

Singapore Nap 23 September 2012

Ato

Race 6 Garden City Trophy - Singapore Group 3

1200M Long Course C

Stakes $200,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Singapore vindicates it Handicapping System and Methodologies by being one of the few

Internet/Print Media to go against the Magic of Moreira and survived to taste victory. This is the 2nd time in recent races that trip handicapping and the watching of past race videos has contributed to my recent rich vein in form following its debut in Idealistic Moment's victory. Startstatz Racing had 2nd picks winning and put only the solitary win on board to keep up with Andrew Frost single win to rail by 6 wins while most of my nearest challengers were winless and I expect Winner21 to go the same way or probably post one win but let's see. Singapore Nap (with a different format advantage ) continues to lead the

strike rate challenge with 38 wins /17 placings from 78 selections. If you play win/place you have a 70.5% chance of getting a return despite some of them pegged at the dreaded $5.10 price. Andrew Frost continues to lead the full card challenge with 239 wins from a maximum of 740 selections to be on 32.3% strike rate. It seems that I compiled Racing Guide's score incorrectly by a single win and win last friday's effort managed to edge ahead to go 3rd to be on 231 wins or 31.22% while Racing Guide remains on the same score at 230 wins or 31.08% in 4th spot and Brian Miller remains likewise on 226 wins to trail a creditable 5th with 226 wins. When all the Top guns had a forgettable day Top Tipster Performance of the day goes to the normally unheralded but reputed longshot specialist and he did not disappoint with 3 picks with good prices on To Be Remembered

($35), Awakened ($12) and Tenuponten ($42) . I commend his strong improvement as he has kept away from the relegation spots with a solid mid-table performance peppered with value dividends. I feel sorry that Media Tipsters like him cannot get the same attention as the high flyers in the Top 5 but they deserve my accolades admiration and respect for sticking to their in their quest to provide value for their readers. I have a lot of time for tipsters like him and Mr X and even Brian Miller has had success with longshots and value bets. It is a pity that the current Media Tipster Challenge is based on counting win tally format. If the format were changed to a win dividend format I am sure these mid-table tipsters would be among the elite challenging for the Top Media Tipster title but I believe the top tipster would probably go to one of the current Top 4 as we are more consistent with our fair share of value bets and longshots with good dividends ourseleves. This is a controversial subject but something STC should consider it with added research and study and contemplating its introduction would be a boost in getting Media Tipsters to tip the elusive longshot. I had an eye on Tom myself and suspected it when Warrior was withdrawn voluntarily to let him in as he had the highest recent Handicap Rating as Be A Man had the highest but poor recent form. In the end I opted a safe play for the race favourite and even left hin out of the Top 4....this HR figure had him at HR75.5 with a 2 point advantage on Damo and a 4.05 handicap advantage over Damo and 3rd best yielding sectional times n the race. In a similar vein the are a few solid "gems" to be picked up tomorrow including some non-favourites and I expect a cricket score for Sunday's race card in general but Race 6 is a tough call with 5 serious challengers but 2 with doubtful recent form with Better Be The One needing to put on the kg and Eclair Fastpass needs a pass to get a sauna bath to shed his kg much more. So do look out for my blog posting at http://www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com/. I have yet to receive a formal reply regarding my "barking dog" disparaging reply from a junior STC Manager regarding my posting on "Omission on comments on Pied Piper in the interview featuring Ms Leticia Dragon in the expectation of higher journalistic standards and I hope they will get it over with and respond by the end of September and redress my discomfort .

On a lighter note I expect to see Moreira delivering on 3 shoo-ins with a another 4 with battling eachway chances and safe bets for the exotics plus one no-hoper.

PREVIEW OF RACE

With a capacity field of 14 runners expected barriers are important but the pace will be good with 3 front runners in Mr Big, Lizarre and Yin Xin setting the pace. Yin Xin with the astute Moreira on board will prevent Mr Big from establishing a cushy lead with a rails run and whether Mr Big gets trapped 2 wide alongside(not a bad thing) Yin Xin will determine if he runs a place and if Mr Big gets caught 3 wide without cover he might even miss the top 3 spot and run 4th or worse. If Mr Big is ambitious and covets the rails run it will ensue an early speed battle and will help the chances of the likes of Ato , Better Be The One and Eclair Fastpass if they are race fit. With such a large field if the riders can get into good positions 2 wide off the rails or considered fair if 3 wide (more likely) off the rails but if they get caught 4 wide without cover you can kiss their chances goodbye and proclaim "sayonara" Better Be The One(BBTO) in theory has the best credentials but his weight loss (massive 25kg to a fair 9-11 kg does not brook well for his chances and he is reportedly in poor form since then) after the Dubai trip culminating in his failure to even challenge Ato in the Kris Flyer Sprint Trophy . The other star Eclair Fastpass continues with recent runs in the 546kg to 555kg range when he should be hovering in the low 530kg range so by process of elimination Ato ended up as my 1st pick but I may opt for BBTO if the weight goes up. I list the handicap data of the 5 contenders for your perusal and you can decide for yourself!

1) ATO....HR 111.33 (SOFT)....SF 1:10.26 (SOFT)....SECTIONALS....24.217s/23.958s = 48.175s

5) MR. BIG ....HR99.42....SF 1:10.886 (1:12.305...SOFT) .....SECTIONALS (24.14)....400M sectionals of race leader...actual will be slower/23.6 = (((47.74)))....denotes actual will be slower.

6) BETTER BE THE ONE....HR114.82....SF 1:09.926.....SECTIONALS 24.288/23.048....47.336....BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE TO 1ST PICK IF BODY WEIGHT INCREASES BY 5-10kg

9) ECLAIR FASTPASS...HR 100.58 YIELDING .....SF 1:09.177(JUL 2010....a little dated) OR 1:11.583 YIELDING ....MASSIVELY PLUMB....needs drop(by 20kg) in kg to do well.....SECTIONALS....23.657/24.215 = 47.872

10) YIN XIN....HR 99.42.....SF 1:11.6 YIELDING...SECTIONALS 24.147/24.327 = 48.474.

Waikato wll do well to add value with strong chanes for a Top 4 showing if 6 and 9 fail to regain form as seen by their bodyweight reports on race day

I suggest a mdium 2 ** each way bet on Ato and keep a sharp look out for BBTO bodyweight increase for instant upgrade to 1st pick if it happens.

In order my selections are 1-10-5-6-9-2-12. if 6-9 fail the weight assessment to reconcile the range I suggest to concentrate on 1#10 with a cover on 1#10-2 for value as cover but be quick to drop 2 in favour of 5 and 9 in order if they pass the weight requirements. For the exotics use as you see fit based on weight assessments but be cautious as there are better races to play today even if it rains!

Singapore Nap selects : number 1 Ato

Next Singapore Nap 28 September 2012

Supplied in Singapore by Patrick Khoo

 

STARSTATZ RACING 23 SEPTEMBER 2012

Despite my tip that Moreira will generally do well today I have selected him as 1st pick in only 5 races....Moreira may yet be a decoy/red herring in some races for a linkmate connection to score at a good price as can be seen on Tom vs Goodpack on Friday.
Today should be a high scoring but some favourites will flatter to deceive. I have picked some value bets and gone against Moreira in some races and only time will tell if was foolhardy to do so. I dont think there will be many longshots today and you will be lucky if one scores today.
These are my selections today and by the way I expect Arsenal to do well today and get away with at least a draw at Man City and likewise a draw in the game at Anfield as Liverpool reverse their recent form as their new stars start to gel and hold Man Utd. Here's an exotic bet tip....use Moreira for all races except Race 4 as I expect him to win or fill the forecast spot and in some cases the place forecast for 3rd spot. All his rides except R4 have decent each way chances so he should score a minimum of 3(very confident) and maybe take 4 or 6 races on offer today. I have offered you more than 4 selections but 7 or less in the selections today more your exotic bet play and let's see if I can score using 1st pick as the lone banker in the exotics today. I will be disappointed if I dont bag 4-5 winners today with excellent chances of a fair value direct quartet in Race 2 where the favourite will oblige but the 2nd favourite 2 will not run 2nd. Interestingly enough I have not use SF in most races today and let's see if it an overhyped handicapping tool....(have done so because of time constraints in research but I am confident wmy results will still be credible with chances for top 2 performance today!
RACE1 *6-7///8-10/14-3-2....can cover 7 to win as well
RACE 2 ***1///3-2/6-4.....BEST BET OF THE DAY.....BEST DIRECT QUARTET FOR TOP 4 PICKS....SUGGEST MULTIPLE BETS ON THIS TIERCE/QUARTET PLAY USING 1 AS SOLE BANKER....1#3-2/3-2/6-4 AND COVER LESS WITH 1#3-2/3-2-6-4/3-2-6-4
RACE 3 *4-2-1-7/8-6....THE CLASS OF 4 VS BETTER HANDICAP OF 2
RACE 4 **11-5///2-3-7...CONFIDENT LONGSHOT OF THE DAY
RACE 5 ***2-13///6-4....2KG DIFFERENCE IN HANDICAP WILL ENABLE HIM TO OVRCOME THE LITERAL MR BIG OF HORSE RACING
RACE 6 **1-10/5-6-9/2-12.....CONSIDER COVER ON 5 ONLY IF BODY WEIGHT GOES UP AT LEAST 5KG TO 10 KG
RACE 7 ***1-9///8-6-7-3...VALUE TIERCE QUARTET USING 1 ON THE 1ST LINE AND 9 ON THE 2ND LINE. UNDOUBTEDLY 9 WILL WIN A CUP RACE AT 1600M AND FURTHER....WILL GIVE 1 A FRIGHT BUT NOT MUCH AS SPRINT IS NOT HIS FORTE WHILE 1 HAS SPEED INFLUENCE ON BOTH SIDES...IF CAUTIOUS COVER FCT HEAVILY AND ONE TICKET WITH 9 1ST AND 1 2ND FOR VALUE
RACE 8 *2-10///8-6-7-1...OPEN RACE
RACE 9 ***7-2-12///8-11-6-9....7 HAS BETTER HR/SF AND SECT TIMES THAN 12 BUT 2 IS A CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER WITH CLASSY SIRE WITH 1000M RECORD AND HAS PLACED 1ST UP BEFORE...2 IS AN UNKNOWN FACTOR WITH FORM....SUGGEST BOX 7#2-12 FOR FCT/PFT WITH BIG MULTIPLE BETS.....BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY AT GOOD ODDS WITH 3 PLUS FACTORS OVER 12 WHOSE JOCKEY IS OVER BY 1.5KG WHICH IS A 3/4 LENGTH DISADVANTGE
RACE 10 ***2///5-6/7-3-8-10..SHOO-IN BET
RACE 11 .**10-14-9///5-4-1-2
GOOD LUCK FOR TODAY.....START WITH A BIG WIN BET ON NBR 1 IN RACE 2 AND GO BIG ON EXOTICS AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SNOWBALL WINNINGS FROM THERE ESPECIALLY ON RACES TAGGED 3 *** AND USE THE 1ST PICKS AS LONE BANKER FOR EXOTICS TO COMPENSATE FOR POOR RETURNS ON WIN BETS.

REPLICATION OF POST ON SINGAPORE NAP 21 SEPTEMBER 2012

I have difficulty loading the full post and will attach remainder later.
Singapore Nap                                                     
21 September 2012

Lightning Thief ( X 2 )

Race 7 OPEN B89

1800M Long Course B

Stakes $95,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

"BREAKING NEWS" Starstatz Racing bounced back a scintillating Top of the table Media Tipster Performance with 8 winners from 11 races on 16 September to make a glorious comeback after some forgetable and lacklustre performances in the month to go 14 winners behind Andrew Frost who is setting a blistering pace in the Internet/Print Media Challenge. Since no other mainstream is willing to highlight this phenomenal feat I have to blow my own trumpet on Singapore Nap. This feat was all the more laudable as it include Longshot Keep Away at $63/$20 and the old timer Incredible Hulk at $39/$15. The winners were tagged in R1, R2, R3, R6, R7, R8, R9 and R10. To be fair my peers failed (Singapore Nap included) with their selections because all of us expected a rain affected track and went for mudlarks like Deep Pockets Flax and Nandowra .Starstatz Racing had the advantage of assessing on race day knowing the inclement weather was a noshow and we all know how Keep Away does not like to get his hooves wet! I am a product of a great and acknowledged Grandmaster in horseracing (he's a shy and unassuming Mentor who shuns the limelight) and although I am still a work in progress with a long way to go to reach his level I do hope he is proud of my acievements at least for one glorious day. In case there any "green eyed" monsters are wanting to cast aspersions on my feat, I am willing to open up my blog records and archive for close scrutiny and I also have witnesses who are luminaries on my SMS/email list from The Press Corp who are Top Tipsters in their own right but they shall remain anonymous for obvious reasons due to the political baggage of associating with a outspoken critique like me. After a shallow performance in August I have changed my methodolgy with 2 consecutive high scoring Sundays in a row. 2 swallows don't make a summer but whether a comeback trail is on the cards symbolicly hinges on this race where I am going against the brilliance of Moreira and challenging the ride of Moreira....Dujardin (who incidentally beat my pick by 2.3 lengths when they last met in a 1800M race on the polytrack). In that race (you can ignore the result of that run but not the facors in trip handicapping) LT(Lightning Thief )was drawn in barrier 9 while Dujardin in barrier 7 seem disinterested dawdling 2nd last and took the 1st turn 4 wide and the final turn 6 wide....an average 5 lenghts lost) while Dujardin was jostling for early positions and harried Maurice Utrillo all the way to the post and evntually lost by a head. I have 2 theories.....if the going is good which horse is turning up ....the dawdler jumping at the rear or the front runner(aided by a barrier 2 while Martial Art drawn in 1 is a noted closer and will probably jump out in the rear bunch). If he has serious intentions he should lead all the way to the home straight and Let's see if the magic of Moreira can reel him in! There is some hype of Dujardin being a Gold Cup contender but I see him as only a Gold Cup entry and on Gold Cup day Laurie Laxon and Moreira will elect to take the ride of Martial Arts to try and atone for his defeat last year! Dujardin certainly has the handicap and credentials to win this race or run a close 2nd but to win the Derby is really stretching it.....he should be contented that he can even get into the Gold Cup field. If it remains dry Dujardin might still shade it as he is the trackwork star in this race with some of my fellow Media Tipsters tipping him as a * special bet however let me point out that Dujardin has won over 1400M on yielding in New Zealand but his Sire Magic Ring seems to produce progeny who are adverse to soft going tracks so up the ante is the going is soft in LT's favour. If the going is good Dujardin might still be the ace in the pack but if it is yielding ( Dujardin has been close but not won locally on yielding tracks) LT might just edge it in a very slow pace race with LT the lone front runner.

On the battle among Media Tipsters Andrew Frost is sitting pretty at the top in the full card challenge with 238 wins from 731 races for a 32.56%, Winner21 is 2nd with 237 wins from maximum at 32.42% , Racing Guide is on 231 wins from maximum at 31.61%, Starstatz Racing is on 230 wins from maximum at 31.46% and Brian Miller is on 226 wins from maximum at 30.78%. Larry Foley at 217 wins is the best of the rest below the 30% mark at 29.69%

I want to raise a moot point to all the racebook publications.....upgrade your race reports with more details like 5 wide instead of just plain description "wide" so that serious players like me don't have to replay a race video to how wide the horse actually travelled as happenened to Idealistic Moment before he won the last race. I understand that the situation that it is now a "mad scramble " to meet print deadlines with no luxury of doing research on how wide the horse travelled. STC could also do their part and release the Handicaps on Saturday instead of Monday evenings as I believe it is ready for imput on the computers at that time. In this way race publications have more time to do the requires research.

I reproduce a copy of the last post for your reading pleasure

Singapore Nap missed the posting deadline and the blog was not even posted publicly but sent to a my regular mailing list and STC/SPH Senior Management and the selection done on the premise that the weather forecast was showers with thunder was off the mark going awry as badly as the weather forecast and Thor the Thunder god stayed in his Nordic castle and did not provide the thunderclaps required for rain. "Singapore Nap was correct on all fronts except for the presence of Terminator in the Top 4 quartet spots. Shoo-in bet Texan Takeover duly obliged with some minor anxious moments in the last 25 metres but in the end the margin was a 0.8 lengths victory and a meagre payout  as the top 3 favourites ran according to form and ranking.....the win was a pittance at $7.....the forecast was pegged at $7 as well.....the tierce payout was a miserable $23.....and the quartet a little more ample at $142. The investments required on advice given were $4 for the forecast, $20 for the tierce and $80 for the quartet but the pennys received is still better than losing but I assure today's quartet may be a bumper with a distinct possibility that it might be unmolested and carried over. Add to that the uncertainties of rain affected tracks the dilemma of selecting a winner today is a daunting task and more so the quartet in the correct order. In races like these the I-bet type that I recommended akin to the 4D I-bet would be useful giving the racegoer to have a crack at a jackpot quartet with limited resources.

For a change after all my tedious nagging it is a good feeling of being appreciated for my thankless task of playing watchdog(or so as I have been alluded to ...ie a barking dog.....up the wrong tree) to deviation from high standards of practices expected by me from incumbent officials. I am happy to report that as a result of my feedback the Trackus sectional times are now running smoothly with no misplaced data for the last 2 weeks.....some kind soul at STC has listened to my pleas and the feedback has not fallen on deaf ears after all. (in contrast to the 1st emotional, snooty, condescending response I received from a junior manager regarding my feedback on careless omissions and failure to ask searching questions when journalists are doing pre-race interviews). I guess the individual junior Manager in question will now understand the ramifications of messing around with a seemingly unworthy penny ante blogger with impudent, impertinent and irreverent rebuke without discussing the issue at hand in a rational manner.....I trust that the official will be taken to task and that an apology to yours truly is in order. I do understand the journalists's dilemma when handling reticent, co y and secretive Trainers but there are ways round it. I was pleased with a turn around at least for effort in the Straits Times advertorials last Friday with highlights on Meaisin(ran 3rd and paid $7 for a placing) and Texan Takeover. Win or lose it does not matter but at least they had realistic chances of winning.We are all in agreement that the journalists are no soothsayers who have a crystal ball but the Straits Times advertorials are a vital vehicle to uphold the image of the horse racing industry and every effort and advantage must be harnessed to aid the winning process. Nevermind if horses like Texan Takeover pays a paltry $7 for a win but at least the reader would have had a fighting chance to strike the tierce or quartet with the right banker horse on the 1st line. I am fine if they continue in this vein and play it safe by tipping future shoo-ins like Rocket Man, Super Easy, Super Shadow and Ronnie Brown( after studying the handicaps I hereby withdraw Mr Mani from this elite list as I thing there is a possibility Mr Mani will be beaten by a lightweight tomorrow with a favourable handicap....look out for my post on http://www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com/ on Sunday!). If due dilligence is not maintained we may get complacent and the interviewed Trainers will lead us by the nose on a wild goose chase in search of red herrings as has happened in the past in isolated cases previously highlighted by this columnist. The mindset of the Trainers must be engaged and persuaded and the journalists can always do interviews from different perspectives and story-lines so that the Trainers have a feel good feeling that the interviews are actually a good opportunity to advertise the vibrancy and capabilities of the trainers in selecting future Champions.....sometimes at a bargain price (bargain buy Speedy Cat would be the ideal 1st interview done as he cost only NZ$5k and has already amassed $338,259 and might add a few pennies for quartet placing on Sunday!) and sometimes see it as a judicious investment like Super Shadow or Super Easy (pricey but the returns gain an imprssive profit or pays the way for the upkeep of stables and these Owners get compensated with the pleasure , pride, honour and glory of winning. I suggest a new angle of approach would be a 2nd question to be asked....who do you think is the main threat to your stable hope in winning this race. I believe that the response (due to pride mainly but with the added bonus that they can deflect attention to another horse and make the other horse a favourite) is very enthusiastic as I have seen so often in HKG racing and who knows they might tip you the forecast in that event!

I will be the 1st to admit that my avant garde views on improvements in horse racing do inevitably step on the wrong toes but I do mean well for the good of racing and not some raving lunatic" barking up the wrong tree, with hare brained (or if I may quote the junior Manager ....."engaging in senseless arguements".....if they are truly proven I am not a stubborn person and will readily reach a consensual opinion that is accepted by others) ideas (ideas that are bad can always be thrown into the dustbin and I am mindful of reasonable explainations).

I would like to correct my comment on Friday regarding front runners and on pace runners advantage in this inclement weather expected on Sunday. That advice was vaild for Friday and is still valid for Polytrack on Sunday but the A long course will likely suit the horses in the 2nd half of the field(off pace runners like Flax and Speedy Cat) especially in fast pace races( in Race 10 the pace is expected to be fast/possibly very fast with at least 4 front running types) and at least the closers like Deep Pockets in this race will be given a fighting chance to stake their claims).

My use of sectional times is like going to war with night vision goggles and I will use it extensively when time permits to the end of this season at least for all races. This would lead to an improved showing and I do expect one tomorrow. Even if I miss do look at my top 4 closely even if you do not like my 1st pick. For Friday I had only 3 winners and my wish on closing the gap on Andrew Frost bore but Racing Guide are giving me a torrid time for my immediate quest for 3rd spot and both of them had 4 wins to outscore me by one. The tally for singapore Nap in the strike rate challenge is now on 37 wins/18 placings from 76 selections to be on 46.68% strike rate. Andrew Frost had a rare quiet day with 2 wins to be on 235 wins from 720 selections in the full card challenge with a commanding lead to be on 32.64%.....Winner 21 is 2nd
(update next week) , Racing Guide is entrenched in 3rd spot to be on 31.25% (225 wins from maximum).....Starstatz Racing and Brian Miller are safely in joint 4th spot with 30.83% (222 wins from maximum). This battle for honours is a good example why STC journalists scores should be posted publicly as we fight for our pride(and bragging rights) as we double our efforts to try and outdo each other in this challenge (competition is always healthy least we get complacent, lacklustre leading to indifferent performances hidden in anonymity).

PREVIEW OF RACE on 19 September 2012

If the weatherman's crystal ball is correct do expect showers with thunder on Sunday morning and if it holds on yielding my selection (not in Media top 4 except for Shin Min) will acquit himself well despite the top impost but if if the going changes to soft it would enhance the credentials of Deep Pockets who will relish the underfoot conditions who will be guided by the expert "Navigator" Senor Moreira. In these rain affected races on turf we should not just be looking for the well handicapped "good going horses but look out for specialist mudlarks with experience (or through breeding ie

Sires like Testa Rossa, Spinning World, Zabeel, Flying Spur, Hellioso, Mr Prospector, Nureyev, Savabeel, Sadler Wells etc.

In the 1st round of analyis i picked out 9 horses in this field of 14 who had at least one tick in the right box but 9 is 2 horses too many to make a healthy return on investment in this wide open race but I hope my reasons seem logical to you the reader for serious consideration before making your final choice. I will provide basic data on these 9 to promote why my horse handicapping data needs a public profile....the data has as a foundation from a great Mentor who taught me how naive I was in my infantile knowledge(just using timings ....irregardless whether 3 months old or 2 years old.....with no recourse to trip handicaping). With my expert data you may derive a different conclusion based on my personal prejudices or oversight. Horses like Probo Chandroso tipped by the outsider specialist Mr X(from the Newpaper) do not win for no apparent reason but simply because he was in good form and had a handicap having done well in  higher class race in the past.

These data are captured with no bias or prejudices(no guarantees that I am right all the time) and will be useful when comparing the entire forest instead of hype of individual horses just because an unfashionable jockey(eg apprentice in no claims races like these). Of course I will trim these possible 9 to a probable 7(even that I expect only 2 prime contenders). In races that I tip 4 selections I will endeavour to keep a healthy strike rate % and try to put the winners in the top 4 with no regard to prices as in the case of Shen Kim who happened to have a decent handicap rating near the top and the best sectional times in the race. I hope my potential future employers and  STC officials  will subject my ratings system to close scrutiny and it can be applied to any race course in the world provided horses are subject to CR ratings and sectional times are available! The major difference between my hybrid benchmarked system is that compared to all the publications in Singapore bar none as well as the STC website are all records of past performance data and are not user friendly for immediate digestion. Only the racegoer with some race experience can interprete and recalibrate these figures to arrive at a judicious opinion or decision on which horse/horses to select for win/place or exotic bets. When I provide 7 selections that does not mean I want you to box all 7 horses and claim credit when one of them inevitably wins as in the 3 stars *** comment I made in earlier postings. The focus will eventually be on one 1st selection and sometimes include the 2nd  

selection aka Dutch betting ie to play both horses for approximately equal returns if one of them wins!   I can lay claim to fame that my data is probably one of few or the only public horse racing data available that is recalibrated or a better term is extrapolated to the weight the horse is carrying on race day. External factors like trip handicapping(includes slowly away, baulked, checked , wide( I wish racebooks can upgrade their services provided by indicating 4 wide(as in the case of Idealistic Momment....so I adjusted 4 points or 4 lengths. barrier draw(adjustment by 1.5 to 2 lengths....but usually 1.5 lengths), short course or long course, pace of the race, weather conditions affecting causing rain affected tracks, change in running style , whether a jockey is riding above his alloted handicap weight by 0.5kg or 1 kg., sudden drop in dividends on horse with good old handicap, cnondition of horse in paddock.... sweating in wrong places and fractious or hard to load, breeding whether can take rise in distance and overall class and consistencty of horse in question, whether an apprentice is worth his claim ie for a good skillful experienced I will adjust by one point or 1 kg in a 2000M race while I will not adjust for a fresh wet between the ears rookie with no winners and is a 4kg claimer....be alert to adjust as he accumulates more winners and his claim keeps dropping lower. With my primed and adjusted data no more complicated conclusions are required just the decision making. Racebooks have their limitations due space constraints provide data only for past 6 runs and vital crucial data that points to him as a winner is missing. Be careful to give lesser weightage to data that is more than 3 months old and data more than 6 months old is suspectedly unreliable unless he shows a run close to his old winning performance. I will include full data of only the 2 main protagonists and basic data for the remaining 7 selected.

My 1st round shortlist involved the 9 horses mentioned in the handicap data. In the final round I eliminated the 2 lowest rated horses as they are both running undescaled. You may consider eliminating by outer barriers but it is likely an overall advantage depending on the running style of the horse and usually front running horses in fast pace races will tire easily. Many handicapping ideas can be tested in this race eg are barriers important to closers and off pace runners(tentative conclusion not as important if 2 or 11 wins).....can highly rated horses with good HRs acquit themselves well if the figure was for a shorter or longer distance ( the answer is yes if 7 wins and to a lesser extent if 9 wins) if his breeding indicates he can handle the distance. .....is the sheer class of the horse alone (without good HR figures and good sectional times....the answer is yes if 4 wins based on his Singapore Airlines Cup exploits)....Is pace of a race important in determining the outcome of a race(assuming the likely pace to be fast and furious(the answer is yes if the front 4 ie 10-6-15-7 dont win and the theory is even more emphatic if 2-3-5-12 also miss out as they are on pace runners in the front half of the field. Are barriers that important in mile and distance races ( this theory can be put to the test if 2-4-11-15 still overcome their wide draws to win. The final question for my Malaysian readers is ....are Malaysian horses underated? Number 1 Fighter Jet has one of the higher HR figures in the race and furthermore it was tabulated over 1600M in soft going in Malaysia

(Speed Baby and Captain Obvious have bucked the trend). Can Fighter Jet emulate his more illustrious country cousins from Malaysia.
 

Although my final pick went to Flying Fulton based on direct collateral handicapping indirect comparison to Chase Me's wins albeit at different distances. Chase Me beat Deep Pockets by 8 lengths over 2000M on a yielding track while Flying Fulton lost to Chase Me by a margin of 2 lengths over 1800M in good so the difference is 6 lengths and their differences in weight carry compared to those runs is up 1 kg for number 2 and down 7kg for number 11....a difference of 8 kg which for this distance is a differnce of 6.4 lengths. If this theory pans out and Deep Pockets beats Flying Fulton by 0.4 to 0.5 lengths I will have a good laugh as I discarded it in favour of superior HRs and since Flying Fulton's sectional times on yielding are better than Deep Pocket and I duly expect Flying Fulton to stamp his class on this field if the going is yielding and emulate the feats of JUMBO JET and SAAS FEE  in the past.  However if the connections of Deep Pocket's do a rain dance ritual and the sky opens up and pours thunder and lightning down to Mother Earth I will not be embarassed if Deep Pocket shades it (cute if he wins by 0.4 to 0.5 lengths ....Ha Ha Ha!)

So a medium win/place bet on 2 is in order but in reality I will hedge my bets and do Dutch betting on 11 as well! My final 7 in order are 2-11-7-9-5-3-4(for those with big budgets squeeze 15 in or consider him ahead of others at the tail end of my list). I will play a token quartet with 2 and 11 as joint bankers on the 1st line and 2-11-7-9 as key horses on the 2nd line and and add 5-3 only (together with the original 4) in the 3rd and 4th lines. I will go for a big bet on 2#11 for forecast place forecast and 2-11#7-9 as medium bet cover and hope to strike at good odds compensating for the higher outlay. In the mean time I shall go and pray for not too much rain and the track remains yielding....be prepared to consider betting 60% on Deep Pockets and cover 40% on Flying Fulton if it pours!

 

HANDICAP DATA

2) FLYING FULTON.....in good form although 4th in last start

HR 105.2.....SF 1:36.253(extrapolated from 1800M).....29July 2012....at CR108....58kg

HR 106.7 (WON 1800M poly)......24June 2012....CR 107....58kg

HR 103.....SF 1:38.973(actual 1600M turf on good going).....29 April 2012....CR107....56.5kg

HR 105.87.....SF 1:38.12(1600M yielding)....15 April 2012....CR107....59kg

HR 96.....SF1:37.266 (WON 1600M yielding).....18 September 2011....CR 92....54kg

SECTIONALS .....25.367Y(1st 400M)/ 23.147Y(last 400M) = 48.514Y( 2nd best 1600M yielding sectionals....inferior only to Hint.

Sire by Flying Spur and Damsire by Zabeel are both mudlark specialists(take a joke ....if you examine his feet ie hooves in this case you may find that it is webbed especially good for slaloming on rain affected 

tracks)

59 kg weight carry is only negative factor but has favourable handicap....will do well if he settles 2 wide from the rails and makes his run before Deep Pockets

3) GINGERBREAD MAN.....showed a return to form with 3rd in last start 

HR 106.4 (extrapolated from WIN over 1400M yielding on 03 June 2012)......SF 1:36.253 (extrapolated from 1400M yielding on 02 September 2012)

SECTIONALS.....25.593/23.613 = 49.026.....3rd best 1600M good going sectionals

4) FLAX.....coming off 3 month break after proving himself to be classy and best performed local horse in Singapore Airlines Cup at Group 1 level....has perfect record of 3 wins from 3 1st up starts and history might repeat itself but looking at the stats.....the barrier is bad.....HR is weak but Classy type and 2nd best performer in soft going over 1400M.....will relish soft going but may find Deep Pocket's closing 400M sectionals too hot for him to cope with

HR 96.66(extrapolated from 2000M in soft going)....

SF 1:37.567(extrapolated from 1400M).....30 March 2012....CR 79.....49kg

SF1:38.983 (extrapolated from 1400M in soft going).....27 November 2011

SECTIONALS....1400M figures (can only compare with Nandowra and Wont Stop)

25.127/23.2 = 48.327 (1400M sectionals)

6) NANDOWRA....poor in last start over unsuitable 2000M....ignore the run.....has won over  1800M in soft going on 08 April 2012 at CR80 with 55.5kg....weaker HR compared to 2-3-7-9....Sire Savabeel is a mudlark specialist....will challenge Keep Away for the early lead and the fast pace will be his undoing

HR 105.82.....SF 1:36.36....24 June 2012....CR95.....57kg

SF 1:37.5 (extrapolated from 1400M  on yielding).....03 June 2012...CR95....57kg

SECTIONALS.....25.68/23.53 = 49.21 (4th best good going sectionals)

1400M SECTIONALS 24.476/24.393 = 48.869

7) WONT STOP.....poor in last start......has not won over 1600M as yet but breeding indicates 1600M is his forte distance and Sire Testa Rossa was outstanding 1600M mudlark specialist.....best HR among serious contenders and might just upset at odds.....best serious longshot in the race with experienced apprentice not being allowed to claim the only negative  ...drawn well and will likely get the box seat behind likely race leader Keep Away and will take full advantage and steal a march with an early  and surprise the closers with an early move if they decide to slow the pace. Good bet for a place at odds if he does not win and with no 1600M sectionals to compare he might be the surprise packet.

Has superior HR/1400M SF compared to Speedy Cat and should do better than the bargain buy of the year Speedy Cat. Intriguing value for place betting at odds(suggest cover 1 win)

HR 108.97(best HR in race but figures might flatter to deceive as extrapolated from 1400M on yielding track.).....SF 1:36.123 (extrapolated from 1400M on yielding track)...

19 February 2012....CR94....54kg

SF 1:36.333 (extrapolated from 1400M over soft going)....06 May 2012....CR 94....51kg

SECTIONALS....at 1400M on yielding (as such can only be directly compared to horses like Flax  and Nandowra's 1400M sectionals only)......24.959 Y/ 22.869 Y = 47.828 Yielding.

9) SPEEDY CAT....HR 108.7 (extrapolated from 1200M Poly at CR87....58kg).....

SF 1:36.292 Yielding......20May 2012....CR80 ....54kg

SECTIONALS .....1600M on yielding track....25.673Y/ 24.113Y = 49.786 Yielding....has weaker 1600M yielding sectionals compared to Flying Spur

11) DEEP POCKETS.....poor in last start when he was slowly away but with Moreira jumping on board indicates his present form .....best finisher in this race and woe betide any horse he manages to pull alongside to......may have to travel wide at the home turn or take an inside run and ride for luck and hope to avoid the Sebastian near disaster on Friday.....badly drawn but seems to be the best soft going specialist in this field

14) HINT.....8 month break but has 2 wins from 7 1st up starts to be a wild longshot but will the connections even consider  a shot at it or decide to have the day off and fight another day. A win has severe repurcussions to his CR punishment as his reward for winning as he running 4.5 kg underscaled but he has a  one tick with best good going sectionals in this race done when he won on 25 September 2011.....unlikely to win as sectionals by itself is not a stand alone handicapping tool .....so he is likely to be a nowshow for the exotic bets and I have removed him from my top 7 shortlist.

HR 103.5....SF 1:35.154.....25 September 2011.....CR 69.....53kg

SECTIONALS.....24.454/23.483 = 47.937.....best good going 1600M sectionals in this race but it is too old to be considered seriously.....if you are interested in wild longshots 15 is a better bet but Wont Stop looks a more lively longshot at good odds because of the apprentice(but experienced and capable) rider with no claim

15) FREEZEMASTER.....improver with impressive last start credentials and definitely not a journey man horse who will win a similar race under better handicap conditions even though he is bottom weight today......underscaled by 5.5 kg and the ramifications for winning at handsome odds will not sit well if I was the Owner coping with a massive double promotion rise 

 

in CR punishment handed out as a compensation for a 3 figure

win dividend....I believe he will make a go of it on another day soon despite having the best 1600M yielding sectionals in this race!

HR 99....SF 1:36.487 (extrapolated from 1400M yielding)......last WON 02 September 2012

at CR73....48kg

SECTIONALS .....25.977Y/22.4777Y = 48.474Y (1600M).....I have reluctantly left him out from my top 7 but worth putting 1 win/1 place if you believe in 3 figure win dividends for wild romantic longshots on account of his superb yielding sectional times.....but forget the sentiment as his HR is poor and besides sectionals are not a stand alone tool.....save this one as one to watch for his next handicap race

 

             PREVIEW OF RACE 7

In this slow pace race Dujardin will hassle race leader LT all the way  and knowing Moreira he will probably park himself in the box seat behind LT. At some juncture before the home turn he will probably make his move alongside LT and go 2 wide before unleasing his burst in the straight.. The handicap favours 7 and 6 but 5 is still considered an improver with 7 and 5 fighting out for the forecast slots. LT's HR is 84...so  is Superczar while Dujardin is at HR80.8 while market 3rd favourite seems out of it at HR 75.8 while Martial Art will use this race as a warm-up race as his prelude to possible Gold Cup glory and at HR78.9 might still be classy enough to pip the 4th or 3rd quartet slot to pip Silveron Wings.

In order my selections are 7-5-6-1-4-2....I suggest using 7#5 as the big multiple bet on forecast eg 20 tickets in case 7 loses to 5 and cover pft on 7-5#6-1(1 will add value as most will shun top weighted horses with 59kg in diistance races!

I have whittled the shortlist to 6 today with the plan to use double bankers of 7 and 5 on the 1st line and I recommend to use 4 horses on the 2nd line and possibly 3rd line(if on a budget) ie 5-7-6-1 and throw the remaining total selections of -7-5-6-1-4-2 on the 3rd and/or 4th line as you see fit according to your budget. LT has won on turf before at 1600M on 30 October 2011. Play a big value bet *** on win/place on Lighting Thief and I am very confident he will run 2nd and with a dose of Luck take the Cake and leave Moreira with the 2nd forecast spot.. The result of this race will give an indication whether my big push in September and the last Quarter is sustainable or not! Try as a sleeper bet 7-5/7-5/6-1/6-1 multiple tickets(2-5 tickets for a mere $8 for the quartet and same for the tierce). If I am lucky we might even score on the direct quartet.

 

 Singapore Nap selects : number 7 Lightning Thief ( X 2)

               Next Singapore Nap 23 September 2012

                Supplied in Singapore by Patrick Khoo