Ato
Race 6 Garden City Trophy - Singapore Group 3
1200M Long Course C
Stakes $200,000
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Singapore vindicates it Handicapping System and Methodologies by being one of the few
Internet/Print Media to go against the Magic of Moreira and survived to taste victory. This is the 2nd time in recent races that trip handicapping and the watching of past race videos has contributed to my recent rich vein in form following its debut in Idealistic Moment's victory. Startstatz Racing had 2nd picks winning and put only the solitary win on board to keep up with Andrew Frost single win to rail by 6 wins while most of my nearest challengers were winless and I expect Winner21 to go the same way or probably post one win but let's see. Singapore Nap (with a different format advantage ) continues to lead the
strike rate challenge with 38 wins /17 placings from 78 selections. If you play win/place you have a 70.5% chance of getting a return despite some of them pegged at the dreaded $5.10 price. Andrew Frost continues to lead the full card challenge with 239 wins from a maximum of 740 selections to be on 32.3% strike rate. It seems that I compiled Racing Guide's score incorrectly by a single win and win last friday's effort managed to edge ahead to go 3rd to be on 231 wins or 31.22% while Racing Guide remains on the same score at 230 wins or 31.08% in 4th spot and Brian Miller remains likewise on 226 wins to trail a creditable 5th with 226 wins. When all the Top guns had a forgettable day Top Tipster Performance of the day goes to the normally unheralded but reputed longshot specialist and he did not disappoint with 3 picks with good prices on To Be Remembered
($35), Awakened ($12) and Tenuponten ($42) . I commend his strong improvement as he has kept away from the relegation spots with a solid mid-table performance peppered with value dividends. I feel sorry that Media Tipsters like him cannot get the same attention as the high flyers in the Top 5 but they deserve my accolades admiration and respect for sticking to their in their quest to provide value for their readers. I have a lot of time for tipsters like him and Mr X and even Brian Miller has had success with longshots and value bets. It is a pity that the current Media Tipster Challenge is based on counting win tally format. If the format were changed to a win dividend format I am sure these mid-table tipsters would be among the elite challenging for the Top Media Tipster title but I believe the top tipster would probably go to one of the current Top 4 as we are more consistent with our fair share of value bets and longshots with good dividends ourseleves. This is a controversial subject but something STC should consider it with added research and study and contemplating its introduction would be a boost in getting Media Tipsters to tip the elusive longshot. I had an eye on Tom myself and suspected it when Warrior was withdrawn voluntarily to let him in as he had the highest recent Handicap Rating as Be A Man had the highest but poor recent form. In the end I opted a safe play for the race favourite and even left hin out of the Top 4....this HR figure had him at HR75.5 with a 2 point advantage on Damo and a 4.05 handicap advantage over Damo and 3rd best yielding sectional times n the race. In a similar vein the are a few solid "gems" to be picked up tomorrow including some non-favourites and I expect a cricket score for Sunday's race card in general but Race 6 is a tough call with 5 serious challengers but 2 with doubtful recent form with Better Be The One needing to put on the kg and Eclair Fastpass needs a pass to get a sauna bath to shed his kg much more. So do look out for my blog posting at http://www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com/. I have yet to receive a formal reply regarding my "barking dog" disparaging reply from a junior STC Manager regarding my posting on "Omission on comments on Pied Piper in the interview featuring Ms Leticia Dragon in the expectation of higher journalistic standards and I hope they will get it over with and respond by the end of September and redress my discomfort .
On a lighter note I expect to see Moreira delivering on 3 shoo-ins with a another 4 with battling eachway chances and safe bets for the exotics plus one no-hoper.
PREVIEW OF RACE
With a capacity field of 14 runners expected barriers are important but the pace will be good with 3 front runners in Mr Big, Lizarre and Yin Xin setting the pace. Yin Xin with the astute Moreira on board will prevent Mr Big from establishing a cushy lead with a rails run and whether Mr Big gets trapped 2 wide alongside(not a bad thing) Yin Xin will determine if he runs a place and if Mr Big gets caught 3 wide without cover he might even miss the top 3 spot and run 4th or worse. If Mr Big is ambitious and covets the rails run it will ensue an early speed battle and will help the chances of the likes of Ato , Better Be The One and Eclair Fastpass if they are race fit. With such a large field if the riders can get into good positions 2 wide off the rails or considered fair if 3 wide (more likely) off the rails but if they get caught 4 wide without cover you can kiss their chances goodbye and proclaim "sayonara" Better Be The One(BBTO) in theory has the best credentials but his weight loss (massive 25kg to a fair 9-11 kg does not brook well for his chances and he is reportedly in poor form since then) after the Dubai trip culminating in his failure to even challenge Ato in the Kris Flyer Sprint Trophy . The other star Eclair Fastpass continues with recent runs in the 546kg to 555kg range when he should be hovering in the low 530kg range so by process of elimination Ato ended up as my 1st pick but I may opt for BBTO if the weight goes up. I list the handicap data of the 5 contenders for your perusal and you can decide for yourself!
1) ATO....HR 111.33 (SOFT)....SF 1:10.26 (SOFT)....SECTIONALS....24.217s/23.958s = 48.175s
5) MR. BIG ....HR99.42....SF 1:10.886 (1:12.305...SOFT) .....SECTIONALS (24.14)....400M sectionals of race leader...actual will be slower/23.6 = (((47.74)))....denotes actual will be slower.
6) BETTER BE THE ONE....HR114.82....SF 1:09.926.....SECTIONALS 24.288/23.048....47.336....BE PREPARED TO UPGRADE TO 1ST PICK IF BODY WEIGHT INCREASES BY 5-10kg
9) ECLAIR FASTPASS...HR 100.58 YIELDING .....SF 1:09.177(JUL 2010....a little dated) OR 1:11.583 YIELDING ....MASSIVELY PLUMB....needs drop(by 20kg) in kg to do well.....SECTIONALS....23.657/24.215 = 47.872
10) YIN XIN....HR 99.42.....SF 1:11.6 YIELDING...SECTIONALS 24.147/24.327 = 48.474.
Waikato wll do well to add value with strong chanes for a Top 4 showing if 6 and 9 fail to regain form as seen by their bodyweight reports on race day
I suggest a mdium 2 ** each way bet on Ato and keep a sharp look out for BBTO bodyweight increase for instant upgrade to 1st pick if it happens.
In order my selections are 1-10-5-6-9-2-12. if 6-9 fail the weight assessment to reconcile the range I suggest to concentrate on 1#10 with a cover on 1#10-2 for value as cover but be quick to drop 2 in favour of 5 and 9 in order if they pass the weight requirements. For the exotics use as you see fit based on weight assessments but be cautious as there are better races to play today even if it rains!
Singapore Nap selects : number 1 Ato
Next Singapore Nap 28 September 2012
Supplied in Singapore by Patrick Khoo
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