REPLICATION OF POST ON SINGAPORE NAP 21 SEPTEMBER 2012

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Singapore Nap                                                     
21 September 2012

Lightning Thief ( X 2 )

Race 7 OPEN B89

1800M Long Course B

Stakes $95,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

"BREAKING NEWS" Starstatz Racing bounced back a scintillating Top of the table Media Tipster Performance with 8 winners from 11 races on 16 September to make a glorious comeback after some forgetable and lacklustre performances in the month to go 14 winners behind Andrew Frost who is setting a blistering pace in the Internet/Print Media Challenge. Since no other mainstream is willing to highlight this phenomenal feat I have to blow my own trumpet on Singapore Nap. This feat was all the more laudable as it include Longshot Keep Away at $63/$20 and the old timer Incredible Hulk at $39/$15. The winners were tagged in R1, R2, R3, R6, R7, R8, R9 and R10. To be fair my peers failed (Singapore Nap included) with their selections because all of us expected a rain affected track and went for mudlarks like Deep Pockets Flax and Nandowra .Starstatz Racing had the advantage of assessing on race day knowing the inclement weather was a noshow and we all know how Keep Away does not like to get his hooves wet! I am a product of a great and acknowledged Grandmaster in horseracing (he's a shy and unassuming Mentor who shuns the limelight) and although I am still a work in progress with a long way to go to reach his level I do hope he is proud of my acievements at least for one glorious day. In case there any "green eyed" monsters are wanting to cast aspersions on my feat, I am willing to open up my blog records and archive for close scrutiny and I also have witnesses who are luminaries on my SMS/email list from The Press Corp who are Top Tipsters in their own right but they shall remain anonymous for obvious reasons due to the political baggage of associating with a outspoken critique like me. After a shallow performance in August I have changed my methodolgy with 2 consecutive high scoring Sundays in a row. 2 swallows don't make a summer but whether a comeback trail is on the cards symbolicly hinges on this race where I am going against the brilliance of Moreira and challenging the ride of Moreira....Dujardin (who incidentally beat my pick by 2.3 lengths when they last met in a 1800M race on the polytrack). In that race (you can ignore the result of that run but not the facors in trip handicapping) LT(Lightning Thief )was drawn in barrier 9 while Dujardin in barrier 7 seem disinterested dawdling 2nd last and took the 1st turn 4 wide and the final turn 6 wide....an average 5 lenghts lost) while Dujardin was jostling for early positions and harried Maurice Utrillo all the way to the post and evntually lost by a head. I have 2 theories.....if the going is good which horse is turning up ....the dawdler jumping at the rear or the front runner(aided by a barrier 2 while Martial Art drawn in 1 is a noted closer and will probably jump out in the rear bunch). If he has serious intentions he should lead all the way to the home straight and Let's see if the magic of Moreira can reel him in! There is some hype of Dujardin being a Gold Cup contender but I see him as only a Gold Cup entry and on Gold Cup day Laurie Laxon and Moreira will elect to take the ride of Martial Arts to try and atone for his defeat last year! Dujardin certainly has the handicap and credentials to win this race or run a close 2nd but to win the Derby is really stretching it.....he should be contented that he can even get into the Gold Cup field. If it remains dry Dujardin might still shade it as he is the trackwork star in this race with some of my fellow Media Tipsters tipping him as a * special bet however let me point out that Dujardin has won over 1400M on yielding in New Zealand but his Sire Magic Ring seems to produce progeny who are adverse to soft going tracks so up the ante is the going is soft in LT's favour. If the going is good Dujardin might still be the ace in the pack but if it is yielding ( Dujardin has been close but not won locally on yielding tracks) LT might just edge it in a very slow pace race with LT the lone front runner.

On the battle among Media Tipsters Andrew Frost is sitting pretty at the top in the full card challenge with 238 wins from 731 races for a 32.56%, Winner21 is 2nd with 237 wins from maximum at 32.42% , Racing Guide is on 231 wins from maximum at 31.61%, Starstatz Racing is on 230 wins from maximum at 31.46% and Brian Miller is on 226 wins from maximum at 30.78%. Larry Foley at 217 wins is the best of the rest below the 30% mark at 29.69%

I want to raise a moot point to all the racebook publications.....upgrade your race reports with more details like 5 wide instead of just plain description "wide" so that serious players like me don't have to replay a race video to how wide the horse actually travelled as happenened to Idealistic Moment before he won the last race. I understand that the situation that it is now a "mad scramble " to meet print deadlines with no luxury of doing research on how wide the horse travelled. STC could also do their part and release the Handicaps on Saturday instead of Monday evenings as I believe it is ready for imput on the computers at that time. In this way race publications have more time to do the requires research.

I reproduce a copy of the last post for your reading pleasure

Singapore Nap missed the posting deadline and the blog was not even posted publicly but sent to a my regular mailing list and STC/SPH Senior Management and the selection done on the premise that the weather forecast was showers with thunder was off the mark going awry as badly as the weather forecast and Thor the Thunder god stayed in his Nordic castle and did not provide the thunderclaps required for rain. "Singapore Nap was correct on all fronts except for the presence of Terminator in the Top 4 quartet spots. Shoo-in bet Texan Takeover duly obliged with some minor anxious moments in the last 25 metres but in the end the margin was a 0.8 lengths victory and a meagre payout  as the top 3 favourites ran according to form and ranking.....the win was a pittance at $7.....the forecast was pegged at $7 as well.....the tierce payout was a miserable $23.....and the quartet a little more ample at $142. The investments required on advice given were $4 for the forecast, $20 for the tierce and $80 for the quartet but the pennys received is still better than losing but I assure today's quartet may be a bumper with a distinct possibility that it might be unmolested and carried over. Add to that the uncertainties of rain affected tracks the dilemma of selecting a winner today is a daunting task and more so the quartet in the correct order. In races like these the I-bet type that I recommended akin to the 4D I-bet would be useful giving the racegoer to have a crack at a jackpot quartet with limited resources.

For a change after all my tedious nagging it is a good feeling of being appreciated for my thankless task of playing watchdog(or so as I have been alluded to ...ie a barking dog.....up the wrong tree) to deviation from high standards of practices expected by me from incumbent officials. I am happy to report that as a result of my feedback the Trackus sectional times are now running smoothly with no misplaced data for the last 2 weeks.....some kind soul at STC has listened to my pleas and the feedback has not fallen on deaf ears after all. (in contrast to the 1st emotional, snooty, condescending response I received from a junior manager regarding my feedback on careless omissions and failure to ask searching questions when journalists are doing pre-race interviews). I guess the individual junior Manager in question will now understand the ramifications of messing around with a seemingly unworthy penny ante blogger with impudent, impertinent and irreverent rebuke without discussing the issue at hand in a rational manner.....I trust that the official will be taken to task and that an apology to yours truly is in order. I do understand the journalists's dilemma when handling reticent, co y and secretive Trainers but there are ways round it. I was pleased with a turn around at least for effort in the Straits Times advertorials last Friday with highlights on Meaisin(ran 3rd and paid $7 for a placing) and Texan Takeover. Win or lose it does not matter but at least they had realistic chances of winning.We are all in agreement that the journalists are no soothsayers who have a crystal ball but the Straits Times advertorials are a vital vehicle to uphold the image of the horse racing industry and every effort and advantage must be harnessed to aid the winning process. Nevermind if horses like Texan Takeover pays a paltry $7 for a win but at least the reader would have had a fighting chance to strike the tierce or quartet with the right banker horse on the 1st line. I am fine if they continue in this vein and play it safe by tipping future shoo-ins like Rocket Man, Super Easy, Super Shadow and Ronnie Brown( after studying the handicaps I hereby withdraw Mr Mani from this elite list as I thing there is a possibility Mr Mani will be beaten by a lightweight tomorrow with a favourable handicap....look out for my post on http://www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com/ on Sunday!). If due dilligence is not maintained we may get complacent and the interviewed Trainers will lead us by the nose on a wild goose chase in search of red herrings as has happened in the past in isolated cases previously highlighted by this columnist. The mindset of the Trainers must be engaged and persuaded and the journalists can always do interviews from different perspectives and story-lines so that the Trainers have a feel good feeling that the interviews are actually a good opportunity to advertise the vibrancy and capabilities of the trainers in selecting future Champions.....sometimes at a bargain price (bargain buy Speedy Cat would be the ideal 1st interview done as he cost only NZ$5k and has already amassed $338,259 and might add a few pennies for quartet placing on Sunday!) and sometimes see it as a judicious investment like Super Shadow or Super Easy (pricey but the returns gain an imprssive profit or pays the way for the upkeep of stables and these Owners get compensated with the pleasure , pride, honour and glory of winning. I suggest a new angle of approach would be a 2nd question to be asked....who do you think is the main threat to your stable hope in winning this race. I believe that the response (due to pride mainly but with the added bonus that they can deflect attention to another horse and make the other horse a favourite) is very enthusiastic as I have seen so often in HKG racing and who knows they might tip you the forecast in that event!

I will be the 1st to admit that my avant garde views on improvements in horse racing do inevitably step on the wrong toes but I do mean well for the good of racing and not some raving lunatic" barking up the wrong tree, with hare brained (or if I may quote the junior Manager ....."engaging in senseless arguements".....if they are truly proven I am not a stubborn person and will readily reach a consensual opinion that is accepted by others) ideas (ideas that are bad can always be thrown into the dustbin and I am mindful of reasonable explainations).

I would like to correct my comment on Friday regarding front runners and on pace runners advantage in this inclement weather expected on Sunday. That advice was vaild for Friday and is still valid for Polytrack on Sunday but the A long course will likely suit the horses in the 2nd half of the field(off pace runners like Flax and Speedy Cat) especially in fast pace races( in Race 10 the pace is expected to be fast/possibly very fast with at least 4 front running types) and at least the closers like Deep Pockets in this race will be given a fighting chance to stake their claims).

My use of sectional times is like going to war with night vision goggles and I will use it extensively when time permits to the end of this season at least for all races. This would lead to an improved showing and I do expect one tomorrow. Even if I miss do look at my top 4 closely even if you do not like my 1st pick. For Friday I had only 3 winners and my wish on closing the gap on Andrew Frost bore but Racing Guide are giving me a torrid time for my immediate quest for 3rd spot and both of them had 4 wins to outscore me by one. The tally for singapore Nap in the strike rate challenge is now on 37 wins/18 placings from 76 selections to be on 46.68% strike rate. Andrew Frost had a rare quiet day with 2 wins to be on 235 wins from 720 selections in the full card challenge with a commanding lead to be on 32.64%.....Winner 21 is 2nd
(update next week) , Racing Guide is entrenched in 3rd spot to be on 31.25% (225 wins from maximum).....Starstatz Racing and Brian Miller are safely in joint 4th spot with 30.83% (222 wins from maximum). This battle for honours is a good example why STC journalists scores should be posted publicly as we fight for our pride(and bragging rights) as we double our efforts to try and outdo each other in this challenge (competition is always healthy least we get complacent, lacklustre leading to indifferent performances hidden in anonymity).

PREVIEW OF RACE on 19 September 2012

If the weatherman's crystal ball is correct do expect showers with thunder on Sunday morning and if it holds on yielding my selection (not in Media top 4 except for Shin Min) will acquit himself well despite the top impost but if if the going changes to soft it would enhance the credentials of Deep Pockets who will relish the underfoot conditions who will be guided by the expert "Navigator" Senor Moreira. In these rain affected races on turf we should not just be looking for the well handicapped "good going horses but look out for specialist mudlarks with experience (or through breeding ie

Sires like Testa Rossa, Spinning World, Zabeel, Flying Spur, Hellioso, Mr Prospector, Nureyev, Savabeel, Sadler Wells etc.

In the 1st round of analyis i picked out 9 horses in this field of 14 who had at least one tick in the right box but 9 is 2 horses too many to make a healthy return on investment in this wide open race but I hope my reasons seem logical to you the reader for serious consideration before making your final choice. I will provide basic data on these 9 to promote why my horse handicapping data needs a public profile....the data has as a foundation from a great Mentor who taught me how naive I was in my infantile knowledge(just using timings ....irregardless whether 3 months old or 2 years old.....with no recourse to trip handicaping). With my expert data you may derive a different conclusion based on my personal prejudices or oversight. Horses like Probo Chandroso tipped by the outsider specialist Mr X(from the Newpaper) do not win for no apparent reason but simply because he was in good form and had a handicap having done well in  higher class race in the past.

These data are captured with no bias or prejudices(no guarantees that I am right all the time) and will be useful when comparing the entire forest instead of hype of individual horses just because an unfashionable jockey(eg apprentice in no claims races like these). Of course I will trim these possible 9 to a probable 7(even that I expect only 2 prime contenders). In races that I tip 4 selections I will endeavour to keep a healthy strike rate % and try to put the winners in the top 4 with no regard to prices as in the case of Shen Kim who happened to have a decent handicap rating near the top and the best sectional times in the race. I hope my potential future employers and  STC officials  will subject my ratings system to close scrutiny and it can be applied to any race course in the world provided horses are subject to CR ratings and sectional times are available! The major difference between my hybrid benchmarked system is that compared to all the publications in Singapore bar none as well as the STC website are all records of past performance data and are not user friendly for immediate digestion. Only the racegoer with some race experience can interprete and recalibrate these figures to arrive at a judicious opinion or decision on which horse/horses to select for win/place or exotic bets. When I provide 7 selections that does not mean I want you to box all 7 horses and claim credit when one of them inevitably wins as in the 3 stars *** comment I made in earlier postings. The focus will eventually be on one 1st selection and sometimes include the 2nd  

selection aka Dutch betting ie to play both horses for approximately equal returns if one of them wins!   I can lay claim to fame that my data is probably one of few or the only public horse racing data available that is recalibrated or a better term is extrapolated to the weight the horse is carrying on race day. External factors like trip handicapping(includes slowly away, baulked, checked , wide( I wish racebooks can upgrade their services provided by indicating 4 wide(as in the case of Idealistic Momment....so I adjusted 4 points or 4 lengths. barrier draw(adjustment by 1.5 to 2 lengths....but usually 1.5 lengths), short course or long course, pace of the race, weather conditions affecting causing rain affected tracks, change in running style , whether a jockey is riding above his alloted handicap weight by 0.5kg or 1 kg., sudden drop in dividends on horse with good old handicap, cnondition of horse in paddock.... sweating in wrong places and fractious or hard to load, breeding whether can take rise in distance and overall class and consistencty of horse in question, whether an apprentice is worth his claim ie for a good skillful experienced I will adjust by one point or 1 kg in a 2000M race while I will not adjust for a fresh wet between the ears rookie with no winners and is a 4kg claimer....be alert to adjust as he accumulates more winners and his claim keeps dropping lower. With my primed and adjusted data no more complicated conclusions are required just the decision making. Racebooks have their limitations due space constraints provide data only for past 6 runs and vital crucial data that points to him as a winner is missing. Be careful to give lesser weightage to data that is more than 3 months old and data more than 6 months old is suspectedly unreliable unless he shows a run close to his old winning performance. I will include full data of only the 2 main protagonists and basic data for the remaining 7 selected.

My 1st round shortlist involved the 9 horses mentioned in the handicap data. In the final round I eliminated the 2 lowest rated horses as they are both running undescaled. You may consider eliminating by outer barriers but it is likely an overall advantage depending on the running style of the horse and usually front running horses in fast pace races will tire easily. Many handicapping ideas can be tested in this race eg are barriers important to closers and off pace runners(tentative conclusion not as important if 2 or 11 wins).....can highly rated horses with good HRs acquit themselves well if the figure was for a shorter or longer distance ( the answer is yes if 7 wins and to a lesser extent if 9 wins) if his breeding indicates he can handle the distance. .....is the sheer class of the horse alone (without good HR figures and good sectional times....the answer is yes if 4 wins based on his Singapore Airlines Cup exploits)....Is pace of a race important in determining the outcome of a race(assuming the likely pace to be fast and furious(the answer is yes if the front 4 ie 10-6-15-7 dont win and the theory is even more emphatic if 2-3-5-12 also miss out as they are on pace runners in the front half of the field. Are barriers that important in mile and distance races ( this theory can be put to the test if 2-4-11-15 still overcome their wide draws to win. The final question for my Malaysian readers is ....are Malaysian horses underated? Number 1 Fighter Jet has one of the higher HR figures in the race and furthermore it was tabulated over 1600M in soft going in Malaysia

(Speed Baby and Captain Obvious have bucked the trend). Can Fighter Jet emulate his more illustrious country cousins from Malaysia.
 

Although my final pick went to Flying Fulton based on direct collateral handicapping indirect comparison to Chase Me's wins albeit at different distances. Chase Me beat Deep Pockets by 8 lengths over 2000M on a yielding track while Flying Fulton lost to Chase Me by a margin of 2 lengths over 1800M in good so the difference is 6 lengths and their differences in weight carry compared to those runs is up 1 kg for number 2 and down 7kg for number 11....a difference of 8 kg which for this distance is a differnce of 6.4 lengths. If this theory pans out and Deep Pockets beats Flying Fulton by 0.4 to 0.5 lengths I will have a good laugh as I discarded it in favour of superior HRs and since Flying Fulton's sectional times on yielding are better than Deep Pocket and I duly expect Flying Fulton to stamp his class on this field if the going is yielding and emulate the feats of JUMBO JET and SAAS FEE  in the past.  However if the connections of Deep Pocket's do a rain dance ritual and the sky opens up and pours thunder and lightning down to Mother Earth I will not be embarassed if Deep Pocket shades it (cute if he wins by 0.4 to 0.5 lengths ....Ha Ha Ha!)

So a medium win/place bet on 2 is in order but in reality I will hedge my bets and do Dutch betting on 11 as well! My final 7 in order are 2-11-7-9-5-3-4(for those with big budgets squeeze 15 in or consider him ahead of others at the tail end of my list). I will play a token quartet with 2 and 11 as joint bankers on the 1st line and 2-11-7-9 as key horses on the 2nd line and and add 5-3 only (together with the original 4) in the 3rd and 4th lines. I will go for a big bet on 2#11 for forecast place forecast and 2-11#7-9 as medium bet cover and hope to strike at good odds compensating for the higher outlay. In the mean time I shall go and pray for not too much rain and the track remains yielding....be prepared to consider betting 60% on Deep Pockets and cover 40% on Flying Fulton if it pours!

 

HANDICAP DATA

2) FLYING FULTON.....in good form although 4th in last start

HR 105.2.....SF 1:36.253(extrapolated from 1800M).....29July 2012....at CR108....58kg

HR 106.7 (WON 1800M poly)......24June 2012....CR 107....58kg

HR 103.....SF 1:38.973(actual 1600M turf on good going).....29 April 2012....CR107....56.5kg

HR 105.87.....SF 1:38.12(1600M yielding)....15 April 2012....CR107....59kg

HR 96.....SF1:37.266 (WON 1600M yielding).....18 September 2011....CR 92....54kg

SECTIONALS .....25.367Y(1st 400M)/ 23.147Y(last 400M) = 48.514Y( 2nd best 1600M yielding sectionals....inferior only to Hint.

Sire by Flying Spur and Damsire by Zabeel are both mudlark specialists(take a joke ....if you examine his feet ie hooves in this case you may find that it is webbed especially good for slaloming on rain affected 

tracks)

59 kg weight carry is only negative factor but has favourable handicap....will do well if he settles 2 wide from the rails and makes his run before Deep Pockets

3) GINGERBREAD MAN.....showed a return to form with 3rd in last start 

HR 106.4 (extrapolated from WIN over 1400M yielding on 03 June 2012)......SF 1:36.253 (extrapolated from 1400M yielding on 02 September 2012)

SECTIONALS.....25.593/23.613 = 49.026.....3rd best 1600M good going sectionals

4) FLAX.....coming off 3 month break after proving himself to be classy and best performed local horse in Singapore Airlines Cup at Group 1 level....has perfect record of 3 wins from 3 1st up starts and history might repeat itself but looking at the stats.....the barrier is bad.....HR is weak but Classy type and 2nd best performer in soft going over 1400M.....will relish soft going but may find Deep Pocket's closing 400M sectionals too hot for him to cope with

HR 96.66(extrapolated from 2000M in soft going)....

SF 1:37.567(extrapolated from 1400M).....30 March 2012....CR 79.....49kg

SF1:38.983 (extrapolated from 1400M in soft going).....27 November 2011

SECTIONALS....1400M figures (can only compare with Nandowra and Wont Stop)

25.127/23.2 = 48.327 (1400M sectionals)

6) NANDOWRA....poor in last start over unsuitable 2000M....ignore the run.....has won over  1800M in soft going on 08 April 2012 at CR80 with 55.5kg....weaker HR compared to 2-3-7-9....Sire Savabeel is a mudlark specialist....will challenge Keep Away for the early lead and the fast pace will be his undoing

HR 105.82.....SF 1:36.36....24 June 2012....CR95.....57kg

SF 1:37.5 (extrapolated from 1400M  on yielding).....03 June 2012...CR95....57kg

SECTIONALS.....25.68/23.53 = 49.21 (4th best good going sectionals)

1400M SECTIONALS 24.476/24.393 = 48.869

7) WONT STOP.....poor in last start......has not won over 1600M as yet but breeding indicates 1600M is his forte distance and Sire Testa Rossa was outstanding 1600M mudlark specialist.....best HR among serious contenders and might just upset at odds.....best serious longshot in the race with experienced apprentice not being allowed to claim the only negative  ...drawn well and will likely get the box seat behind likely race leader Keep Away and will take full advantage and steal a march with an early  and surprise the closers with an early move if they decide to slow the pace. Good bet for a place at odds if he does not win and with no 1600M sectionals to compare he might be the surprise packet.

Has superior HR/1400M SF compared to Speedy Cat and should do better than the bargain buy of the year Speedy Cat. Intriguing value for place betting at odds(suggest cover 1 win)

HR 108.97(best HR in race but figures might flatter to deceive as extrapolated from 1400M on yielding track.).....SF 1:36.123 (extrapolated from 1400M on yielding track)...

19 February 2012....CR94....54kg

SF 1:36.333 (extrapolated from 1400M over soft going)....06 May 2012....CR 94....51kg

SECTIONALS....at 1400M on yielding (as such can only be directly compared to horses like Flax  and Nandowra's 1400M sectionals only)......24.959 Y/ 22.869 Y = 47.828 Yielding.

9) SPEEDY CAT....HR 108.7 (extrapolated from 1200M Poly at CR87....58kg).....

SF 1:36.292 Yielding......20May 2012....CR80 ....54kg

SECTIONALS .....1600M on yielding track....25.673Y/ 24.113Y = 49.786 Yielding....has weaker 1600M yielding sectionals compared to Flying Spur

11) DEEP POCKETS.....poor in last start when he was slowly away but with Moreira jumping on board indicates his present form .....best finisher in this race and woe betide any horse he manages to pull alongside to......may have to travel wide at the home turn or take an inside run and ride for luck and hope to avoid the Sebastian near disaster on Friday.....badly drawn but seems to be the best soft going specialist in this field

14) HINT.....8 month break but has 2 wins from 7 1st up starts to be a wild longshot but will the connections even consider  a shot at it or decide to have the day off and fight another day. A win has severe repurcussions to his CR punishment as his reward for winning as he running 4.5 kg underscaled but he has a  one tick with best good going sectionals in this race done when he won on 25 September 2011.....unlikely to win as sectionals by itself is not a stand alone handicapping tool .....so he is likely to be a nowshow for the exotic bets and I have removed him from my top 7 shortlist.

HR 103.5....SF 1:35.154.....25 September 2011.....CR 69.....53kg

SECTIONALS.....24.454/23.483 = 47.937.....best good going 1600M sectionals in this race but it is too old to be considered seriously.....if you are interested in wild longshots 15 is a better bet but Wont Stop looks a more lively longshot at good odds because of the apprentice(but experienced and capable) rider with no claim

15) FREEZEMASTER.....improver with impressive last start credentials and definitely not a journey man horse who will win a similar race under better handicap conditions even though he is bottom weight today......underscaled by 5.5 kg and the ramifications for winning at handsome odds will not sit well if I was the Owner coping with a massive double promotion rise 

 

in CR punishment handed out as a compensation for a 3 figure

win dividend....I believe he will make a go of it on another day soon despite having the best 1600M yielding sectionals in this race!

HR 99....SF 1:36.487 (extrapolated from 1400M yielding)......last WON 02 September 2012

at CR73....48kg

SECTIONALS .....25.977Y/22.4777Y = 48.474Y (1600M).....I have reluctantly left him out from my top 7 but worth putting 1 win/1 place if you believe in 3 figure win dividends for wild romantic longshots on account of his superb yielding sectional times.....but forget the sentiment as his HR is poor and besides sectionals are not a stand alone tool.....save this one as one to watch for his next handicap race

 

             PREVIEW OF RACE 7

In this slow pace race Dujardin will hassle race leader LT all the way  and knowing Moreira he will probably park himself in the box seat behind LT. At some juncture before the home turn he will probably make his move alongside LT and go 2 wide before unleasing his burst in the straight.. The handicap favours 7 and 6 but 5 is still considered an improver with 7 and 5 fighting out for the forecast slots. LT's HR is 84...so  is Superczar while Dujardin is at HR80.8 while market 3rd favourite seems out of it at HR 75.8 while Martial Art will use this race as a warm-up race as his prelude to possible Gold Cup glory and at HR78.9 might still be classy enough to pip the 4th or 3rd quartet slot to pip Silveron Wings.

In order my selections are 7-5-6-1-4-2....I suggest using 7#5 as the big multiple bet on forecast eg 20 tickets in case 7 loses to 5 and cover pft on 7-5#6-1(1 will add value as most will shun top weighted horses with 59kg in diistance races!

I have whittled the shortlist to 6 today with the plan to use double bankers of 7 and 5 on the 1st line and I recommend to use 4 horses on the 2nd line and possibly 3rd line(if on a budget) ie 5-7-6-1 and throw the remaining total selections of -7-5-6-1-4-2 on the 3rd and/or 4th line as you see fit according to your budget. LT has won on turf before at 1600M on 30 October 2011. Play a big value bet *** on win/place on Lighting Thief and I am very confident he will run 2nd and with a dose of Luck take the Cake and leave Moreira with the 2nd forecast spot.. The result of this race will give an indication whether my big push in September and the last Quarter is sustainable or not! Try as a sleeper bet 7-5/7-5/6-1/6-1 multiple tickets(2-5 tickets for a mere $8 for the quartet and same for the tierce). If I am lucky we might even score on the direct quartet.

 

 Singapore Nap selects : number 7 Lightning Thief ( X 2)

               Next Singapore Nap 23 September 2012

                Supplied in Singapore by Patrick Khoo