This is a replica of my post on Singapore Nap which is on www.7naps.com(HKG tips are very profitable) and will not count in my starstatz tally. Hope to post within the next 2 weeks.
My track watch report has confirmed 1 as the most in-from though not rated a special because of the wide barrier drawn(effectively 9). He has also reaffirmed my opinion on my top 3 picks. Since 13 is a race scratching I have now bumped 5 into 4th pick based on my track watch imput. My revised selection in order of merit are 1-2-4-5-3-9-10. The way to go for the exotics is to concentrate on the small numbers for the exotics but 9 and 10 among the unbeaten lot may have the mettle to upset my calculations and appear in the top 4 but I do believe these newbies to the 3YO Challenge do not have what it takes and Gingerbread man will make toast out of them for breakfast(1st leg) , lunch (2nd leg ) and dinner (3rd leg).
it remains to be seen if the wide draw has serious ramifications for him or if my confidence in him not only to win but to win with a bigger margin. The fans of Simply The Best (slowly away and blocked for a run) and Excavator (took the turn wide ) and Gingerbread Man winning narrowly by a head have valid reasons for expecting an upset but I firmly believe 1200M was his weakest leg (entree) and that today's 1400M (appetizer) is just a prelude to his finale(main dish) over 1600M which should be a shoo-in unless a brand new talent crops up. Beyond that I believe he has the class and talent and has the measure of this field.
Subject: Singapore Nap 24 April 2011
Singapore Nap
24 Apr 2011
Gingerbread Man (x2)
RACE 10 SINGAPORE 3 YO CLASSIC 2011-SINGAPORE GROUP 2
1400M SHORT COURSE E
STAKES $350,000
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
With 6 placings in the last 6 outings Singapore Nap has dropped to 9th in the Winner 21 Strike Rate Challenge with 8 wins/12 placings from 32 selections for a strike rate of 25%. Starstatz Racing is still in the lead by default with the best strike rate of 19 wins from 64 selections at 29.69% . .In my post I managed to score on the forecast/ place forecast tierce quartet and Quadro. In my late mail to my mailing list I did even better and scored a direct tierce as I recommended a 60% play on Waikato and 40% cover bet on Mr Raffles. The payouts were $14 for a win and as I had predicted a value dividend of $14 for the placing for Mr Raffles as well. The confident forecast paid out twice on my recommend big bet on 8#1-9 and 1#8-9 for $14 forecast and $8 ,$3 and $5 for the place forecast. From an investment of $72 with 3 key horses ( and 3 other horses ) on the 1st and 2nd line we hit the Quartet of $564 and for $24 we hit the quadro of $52 as well. I am glad Senor Laxon brought up the point that Waikato was a young 7yo since he was foaled in December. This data I believe is missing from all the race books and will prove quite useful to serious horse investors. The 2nd point is that the horse is the 1st 2nd or 3rd foal by the dam in question as 1st foals are usually more talented than the latter foals. I would strongly recommend that the race books introduce this feature in future publications.(Tongue in cheek …maybe if Racing Guide introduces it 1st they can then sue Punters Way for copying them when Punters Way introduces it later…I hope you enjoy my parody of twisted humour). Next week I shall do a review on STC ‘s offering of a brochure on Quadro betting and its skeletal facts that are so basic you wonder why the bother to produce the brochure at all…as a must do for the sake of doing it measure? I wonder?
I am still taking a break (for another week at least) on my blog on www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com as I am preparing the legwork for my re-entry into Travel Agency operations complete with a Premium Concierge Service for CIP passengers and will also include Singapore’s 1st travel agency franchise if the project takes off!
OVERVIEW
This race was supposed to be a shoo-in as I had predicted (one of the few internet/print media tipsters who did so in the 1st leg) that if he won the 1st leg his chances are even better for the subsequent legs and the only damper to fulfilling that quest is his wide barrier(barrier 9) draw today. Based on previous records where he was blocked for a clear run I believe Simply The Best is his most serious threat and the rest of the hyped market contenders (albeit unbeaten …are just rising upstarts and wannabes…it remains to be seen if my assessment is on target). The pace will be fast with 4 front runners 4-3-8-10 jostling for the lead but Excavator will get the rails run and prevent them from getting to the rails which should ensure he finishes in the money.
1 has a significant 2.5 HR advantage over 2 and after taking into account the 1.5 lengths adjustment he should still have a length to spare and I predict his margin of victory will be even bigger than his last win as his bloodstock points to his forte over the longer distances through Sharmadal and Giant Causeway …the 1st mate for Melbourne Cup Winner Maykbe Diva.On speed figures his projected figure with a win over the classy Black Ice puts him at 1:22.54 and his closest rival on SF(extrapolated from 1200M) is Clear For Action who is drawn outside him by 2 stalls who is at 1:22.88 while 2 has 1:23.25 …3 has 1:23.71 and 4 has 1:23.16, 5 has 1:23.71(actual), 6 has 1:23.45 , 10 has 1:23.59 (actual) and 12 has 1:23.52 (most of them extrapolated from 1200M. The rest are even much slower and worse off than 1:24.0. which makes their task even harder.
If you want to be cautious put 2 as the other banker I would put my main bet on 1 as banker and only a small cover on 2 as the joint banker.. In order my selections are 1-2-4-3-9-10-139(add 5 if 13 is a non starter. The media hype that this is a wide open affair tickles me and should benefit and reward our readers despite him being a favourite. I would expect a value for money dividend of $12 to $15 and anything else including a high dividend for place would be a welcome bonus.. If his weight is within his old range bet even bigger if he looses the favourite tag as he has an even more impressive record of winning 2 races from two 2nd up starts. Do a big forecast /place forecast on 1#2 and put the remaining horses in the other lines. I should break my place streak with a length to spare as despite excuses by the other horses Ginger Man will make toast of the rest of the field with only Simply The Best anywhere near him.
Singapore Nap Selection : number 1 GINGERBREAD MAN X 2
22 April 2011
STARSTATZ RACING 22APRIL 2011
This is a replica of my post on Singapore Nap but I suggest a big bet on Waikato (1)after receiving confirmation that 1 is in form. Suggest a cover bet on Mr Raffles(8) of 40% and a strong fct /pft on 1 #8-9 and a smaller cover on 8#1-9 .This shall not count in my Starstatz tally as I did not tip the whole race card.Singapore Nap
22 Apr 2011
Mr Raffles
RACE 10 KRANJI STAKES A
1400M SHORT COURSE D
STAKES $125,000
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
With 5 placings in the last 5 outings Singapore Nap has dropped to 9th in the Winner 21 Strike Rate Challenge with 8 wins/11placings from 31 selections. Starstatz Racing is still in the lead by default with the best strike rate of 19 wins from 64 selections at 29.69% . Andrew Frost might yet prove me wrong by edging in 1st place with 89 from 307 races at 28.99% but is slighltly behind Starstatz in overall Internet/Print Media Challenge . Hui Liang is in overall 3rd on 88 from 37 selections at 28.66% . Tan Thean Loon with 87 from 307 selections is 4th at 28.34% and Punters Way is overall 5th with 86 from 307 selections.
Instead of making today’s selection I have opted to be cautious (after 4 successive specials running a place instead of winning) despite my confidence on a strong each way bet on Mr Raffles who is 4th in the favourite line
I am still taking a break (for another week at least) on my blog on www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com as I am preparing the legwork for my re-entry into Travel Agency operations complete with a Premium Concierge Service for CIP passengers and will also include Singapore’s 1st travel agency franchise if the project takes off!
OVERVIEW
This race is a 3 way battle with an ageing favourite Waikato who will certainly make a strong attempt at a double because as a 7 year old he can’t take a breather to fight another days as he does not have too many race days left. The 2nd contender is Mr Raffles who flopped badly into a 7th place 3 length defeat at a unfavourable race distance of 1200M but has the best recent HR and best recent SF drawn wide but should either get the rails run or have Waikato alongside him 2 off the rails and the 3rd is an off pace runner with the 2nd best old HR and top 3 SF credentials. The best HR horse is 10 who last showed up on 15 November 2009 and has been poor over the last 9 runs.
The good to slow(more likely) pace with have 8 trying to get the lead from 1 with no hoper 4 pressing them as the 3rd front runner. On pace runners 6-2 will jump next and off pace runners 7-3-9 following and 10 and 5 will bring up the rear. If we consider his last win HR of 97.9 and SF of 1:23.44 .Waikato does not have the superior figures even with 4 kg apprentice claim and I believe this is where is form at However if you consider his HR of 101.2 when won and SF of 1:22.76 he looks a strong each way chance. If you think the jockey has the skills to take advantage of his 4kg claim you should improve his HR by 2.67 lengths and his SF by 0.532 seconds. 8 has the HR of 110.8 and SF of 1:22.37 and Locus Standi has the best old HR 107.2 at 1200M but a recent HR of 108.47 and SF of !;23.15. In the unlikely the front fight it out for the lead then the Lady Locus Standi might punish them for their arrogance in going fast to ensure a rails run. Mr Raffles will be a good value bet as his likely place dividend will be higher than Waikato’s likely odds on favouritism.
In order my selections are 8-1-9-6-3-7. I am confident I should capture the exotics with just 6 selections instead of the usual 7. The Quadro could be struck with 8-1-9/8-1-9/8-1-9-6-3-7/8-1-9-6-3-7 and I suggest using the same lines for the Tierce and Quartet as well. Go confidently and big on 8#1-9 and an extra bet on 1#8-9 for the forecast and place forecast. I suspect my track watcher would recommend 1 as the main winning chance in this race so go ahead and bet or cover bet if you desire to do so. I should return on Sunday with a confident special 2 and we should add a spice of ginger with our breakfast
Singapore Nap Selection : number 8 Mr Raffles
22 Apr 2011
Mr Raffles
RACE 10 KRANJI STAKES A
1400M SHORT COURSE D
STAKES $125,000
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
With 5 placings in the last 5 outings Singapore Nap has dropped to 9th in the Winner 21 Strike Rate Challenge with 8 wins/11placings from 31 selections. Starstatz Racing is still in the lead by default with the best strike rate of 19 wins from 64 selections at 29.69% . Andrew Frost might yet prove me wrong by edging in 1st place with 89 from 307 races at 28.99% but is slighltly behind Starstatz in overall Internet/Print Media Challenge . Hui Liang is in overall 3rd on 88 from 37 selections at 28.66% . Tan Thean Loon with 87 from 307 selections is 4th at 28.34% and Punters Way is overall 5th with 86 from 307 selections.
Instead of making today’s selection I have opted to be cautious (after 4 successive specials running a place instead of winning) despite my confidence on a strong each way bet on Mr Raffles who is 4th in the favourite line
I am still taking a break (for another week at least) on my blog on www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com as I am preparing the legwork for my re-entry into Travel Agency operations complete with a Premium Concierge Service for CIP passengers and will also include Singapore’s 1st travel agency franchise if the project takes off!
OVERVIEW
This race is a 3 way battle with an ageing favourite Waikato who will certainly make a strong attempt at a double because as a 7 year old he can’t take a breather to fight another days as he does not have too many race days left. The 2nd contender is Mr Raffles who flopped badly into a 7th place 3 length defeat at a unfavourable race distance of 1200M but has the best recent HR and best recent SF drawn wide but should either get the rails run or have Waikato alongside him 2 off the rails and the 3rd is an off pace runner with the 2nd best old HR and top 3 SF credentials. The best HR horse is 10 who last showed up on 15 November 2009 and has been poor over the last 9 runs.
The good to slow(more likely) pace with have 8 trying to get the lead from 1 with no hoper 4 pressing them as the 3rd front runner. On pace runners 6-2 will jump next and off pace runners 7-3-9 following and 10 and 5 will bring up the rear. If we consider his last win HR of 97.9 and SF of 1:23.44 .Waikato does not have the superior figures even with 4 kg apprentice claim and I believe this is where is form at However if you consider his HR of 101.2 when won and SF of 1:22.76 he looks a strong each way chance. If you think the jockey has the skills to take advantage of his 4kg claim you should improve his HR by 2.67 lengths and his SF by 0.532 seconds. 8 has the HR of 110.8 and SF of 1:22.37 and Locus Standi has the best old HR 107.2 at 1200M but a recent HR of 108.47 and SF of !;23.15. In the unlikely the front fight it out for the lead then the Lady Locus Standi might punish them for their arrogance in going fast to ensure a rails run. Mr Raffles will be a good value bet as his likely place dividend will be higher than Waikato’s likely odds on favouritism.
In order my selections are 8-1-9-6-3-7. I am confident I should capture the exotics with just 6 selections instead of the usual 7. The Quadro could be struck with 8-1-9/8-1-9/8-1-9-6-3-7/8-1-9-6-3-7 and I suggest using the same lines for the Tierce and Quartet as well. Go confidently and big on 8#1-9 and an extra bet on 1#8-9 for the forecast and place forecast. I suspect my track watcher would recommend 1 as the main winning chance in this race so go ahead and bet or cover bet if you desire to do so. I should return on Sunday with a confident special 2 and we should add a spice of ginger with our breakfast
Singapore Nap Selection : number 8 Mr Raffles
17 April 2011
STARSTATZ RACING 17 APRIL 2011
My preparation has only been fair but i do expect to do well today especially with my medium and big bets. Please notE that my 1st pick for Race 9 is different from my 1st pick on Singapore Nap but the forecast on the top 2 remains the same. Please also notE that there is slight change in my top 7 from Sungapore Nap for both Race 7 and Race 9
My selections are as follows:-
RACE 1 ACE ACOSTA....BIG BET....1-6-2-3...5-9-10...HOPE MY NUMBERS CAN HELP YOU TO STRIKE THE QUARTET WITH ONE A SHOO-IN. TRY 1#6-2-3-5-9-10 FOR THE TIERCE AND QUARTET JACKPOT.
RACE 2 RARE EARTH....BIG BET9-7-6-1....CAN COVER 7
RACE 3 GOLDEN LIDO...BIG BET...1-9-13-12
RACE 4 ART OF SPEED...BIG BET...7-4-5-8
RACE 5 QUINTA DE LAGO....BIG BET....3-1-2-4...BEST LONGSHOT OF THE DAY
RACE 6 SOLID WOOD ....SMALL BET...2-3-7-12...THE DONNING OF BLINKERS WILL HELP HIS CAUSE
RACE 7 AWAKENED...BIG BET...5-2-1-3-4-9-10...BEST VALUE BET IF 2 REMAINS A FIRST FAVOURITE
RACE 8 SHUTTLE EXPRESS ...SMALL BET...1-6-8-7
RACE 9 APACHE CROWN...BIG BET...4-3-1-6-5-8-9....SUGGEST A 60% BET ON 4 AND A 40% COVER BET AS THE EXPECTED SLOW PLACE WILL SUIT HIS ON PACE STYLE COMPARED TO THE CLASSY OVER THE RAINBOW. MY TRACK REPORT POINTS TO 4 IN BETTER FORM BUT I EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE WITH ONLY A HEAD SEPARATING THEM...BEST FORECAST OF THE DAY
RACE 10 THE COMEDIAN...BIG BET ...BEST BET OF THE DAY...1-2-11-9
RACE 11 SHAOLIN SOLDIER...MEDIUM BET...1-3-11-6
CONCENTRATE ON THE BIG BETS AND MEDIUM BETS FOR SERIOUS INVESTMENTS
My selections are as follows:-
RACE 1 ACE ACOSTA....BIG BET....1-6-2-3...5-9-10...HOPE MY NUMBERS CAN HELP YOU TO STRIKE THE QUARTET WITH ONE A SHOO-IN. TRY 1#6-2-3-5-9-10 FOR THE TIERCE AND QUARTET JACKPOT.
RACE 2 RARE EARTH....BIG BET9-7-6-1....CAN COVER 7
RACE 3 GOLDEN LIDO...BIG BET...1-9-13-12
RACE 4 ART OF SPEED...BIG BET...7-4-5-8
RACE 5 QUINTA DE LAGO....BIG BET....3-1-2-4...BEST LONGSHOT OF THE DAY
RACE 6 SOLID WOOD ....SMALL BET...2-3-7-12...THE DONNING OF BLINKERS WILL HELP HIS CAUSE
RACE 7 AWAKENED...BIG BET...5-2-1-3-4-9-10...BEST VALUE BET IF 2 REMAINS A FIRST FAVOURITE
RACE 8 SHUTTLE EXPRESS ...SMALL BET...1-6-8-7
RACE 9 APACHE CROWN...BIG BET...4-3-1-6-5-8-9....SUGGEST A 60% BET ON 4 AND A 40% COVER BET AS THE EXPECTED SLOW PLACE WILL SUIT HIS ON PACE STYLE COMPARED TO THE CLASSY OVER THE RAINBOW. MY TRACK REPORT POINTS TO 4 IN BETTER FORM BUT I EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE WITH ONLY A HEAD SEPARATING THEM...BEST FORECAST OF THE DAY
RACE 10 THE COMEDIAN...BIG BET ...BEST BET OF THE DAY...1-2-11-9
RACE 11 SHAOLIN SOLDIER...MEDIUM BET...1-3-11-6
CONCENTRATE ON THE BIG BETS AND MEDIUM BETS FOR SERIOUS INVESTMENTS
10 April 2011
STARSTATZ RACING 10 APRIL 2011 replica of Singapore Nap posting
Singapore Nap
THIS IS A REPRODUCTION OF MY BLOG ON 7NAPS.COM AND WILL NOT COUNT IN MY TALLY ON STARSTATZ RACING
10 Apr 2011
New Rose Wood (x2)
RACE 10 JBBA(JAPAN BREEDERS BLOODSTOCK ASSOCIATION OR IS IT AGENCY ?) MOONBEAM VASE- GROUP 3
1800M LONG COURSE B
STAKES $200,000
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
My bravado pick of Williams on Singapore Nap did not pan out. On my Starstatz Racing blog I corrected the advice I gave (after receiving the trackwatch report to go for a 70% to 80% big bet on Black Ice and a 20-30% cover bet on Williams. Those on my mailing list received my corrected advice before the start of Race 2 and managed a conolation payout of $%8 on the place forecast. This is a good example of how a late twitter service could improve on media tipsters who have to do their selection early and would definitely be worth waiting and paying for. A pundit who averages a 30% strike rate could easily improve to a 50% strike rate after checking the weight of horses, seeing the condition of the horses in the paddock and after getting a full trackwork report. As a point in fairness a race book like Racing Guide and Punters Way will have an disadvantage over Shin Min , Wan Bao and Victory Trail and they in turn will be disadvantaged when compared to the New Paper and finally blogs like Starstatz Racing where posting is done before the start of races but late mail(not early late mail given early before the start of Race 1 will have a distinct disadvantage when compared to the pundit who tips 10 mins before the start of each race after viewing the condition of the horses in the paddock. A truly late twitter service will have a distinct advantage with access to more relevant up-to-date vital data.
My suggestion of the week for STC will give a leg-up for small budget racegoers! I brought it up last season but nothing has been done to date. STC and Singapore Pools should introduce the i-bet service currently in use in 4D betting by the Singapore Pools and the Tote Board. They could modify it and adopt the exact same system as the 4D i-bet or they could take a percentage of the full permutation bet in percentages of 10% increments from 10% to 90%. If the percentages end up with cents than I am sure the small budget player will not mine topping it up and pay to the highest dollar for the benefit od STC . Likewise the winning dividends can be downsized to the nearest dollar. Imagine if you had struck the i-bet quartet of $16,727 when Better Be the One won his first race. The full permutation bet would have cost $240 to have BBTO as a lone banker boxed with 6 horses on the 2nd/3rd and 4th lines. For a 10% bet. The investment would have been $24 and the win 10% payout would have been $1672. This is one of the exciting ways we can improve racing by creating more winners in the exotic bets eventually resulting in greate betting turnover and it is a win-win situation between the ordinary racegoer and STC. This should allow us to compete on better terms with the wiles of Ms Marina Bay and Ms Resorts World. With this feedback I hope the betting department introduce this sooner rather. It would not cause any concern if the minimum bet can be put at $10 or even $20.
At this point in time Starstatz Racing and Singapore Nap(from the 7Naps website) are the top 2 tipsters in terms of strike rate when compared to the leaders in the Winner21 Challenge
For the record Starstatz Racing has the best current strike rate with 19 wins from 64 races for a strike rate of 29.69% and Singapore Nap with 8 wins / 7 placings from races for a strike rate of 28.57 %. If New Rose Wood gets the Winner’s laurel then Singapore Nap will leapfrog into 1st place and edge out my other blog Starstatz Racing into 2nd place
I am taking a short break (for this week at least) on my blog on www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com
OVERVIEW
My belief that the Rose among the thorns is a shoo-in today is not shared by 50% of the media tipsters and horses like Parfumier , Jamal Malik, King Falcon (Straits Times advertorial in an article late in the week…which I believe will flop and not likely to make the top 4…very disappointing indeed…I hope I don’t get egg in the face for predicting his likely failure), South Easter. However horses like Thundering Jet and Tell A Tale are well handicapped but have been neglected and might spring a surprise to make the top 4 to make the dividends more appetizing!
The pace will be good to slow with front running trio of 4-5-12 leading the way with on pace runners 14-8-13-10-9-11-6 in close attendance and off pace runners 2-3-1-7 bringing up the tail end. Our selection NRW(New Rose Wood) is likely to get the box seat with a rails run tucked right behind the front running trio. Should any one from this trio be a late scratching it would make her task that much easier and emulate Jolie’s Shinju before her.
This race looks like it was meant for her to win it as if this was a normal handicap race she would have been made to carry 56kg but is instead carrying bottom weight of 50kg. El Dorado also has a handicap advantage but has been in poor form for his last 4 runs and has not done well since 16 Feb 2010 and looks in lacklustre form. In long distance races like today SF and timings are a very minor factor and I won’t even bother to do the calculation. Bloodstock analysis will come into it but with most of the contenders having experience at this race distance this factor will be less of a vital factor than HR(handicap ratings) which points to 14 as a shoo-in with her 12 placings a minor cause of concern compared to her 4 wins from 21 starts. Relatively unfashionable Sivan would make her an attractive propostion with an expected dividend of at least $15 even if she retains 1st favouritism . Sivan is a less glamourous name when compared to Powell, Duric,Vorster, Verenzuela, Cunha and Moreira but I strongly believe the NRW will charm the boys into submission. I have a suggestion for Craig Evans and Matthew Jones especially if they fancy NRW’s chances…play the song Cracklin” Rosie by Neil Diamond.
The respective HR’s are :-
14) 104.3 (1800M poly) and 101.2 (2000M turf)…will be an even better bet if weight increases further by approximately 5 kg
2) 101.1 (2000M turf)…in poor form last 4 runs…last good run was on 16 Feb 2010
9) 100.5…won Group 3…the main threat and looks in good form despite being neglected by the media tipsters
3) 98.5 (2000M turf)…Won Group 1 turf at 1600M and placed 5 times at Group 1 level over distance races up to 2400M…has miler pedigree through sire Tale of the Cat and comfortable at 1800M distance but has staying blood through Damsire Sir Tristram…classy dark horse but inferior HR compared to 14 and 9. Ignore him at your own peril as easily the horse with the best past credentials but has not shown it consistently since arriving and is a doubt.
5) 95.63 (1600M poly)…has won on 1600M turf and won on 1800M poly
1) 94.87 (1600M poly)…can handle turf due wins at 1900M turf and Group 2 placed
8) 92 (1900M poly)…best staying Sire in this race Gallileo is the first Sire Maykabe Diva (Melbourne Cup Winner) has been mated with…classy on breeding
13) 91.3 (2000M turf)
7) 91 (1900M poly)…AWT type
4) 90 (1800M poly)
6) 89 (1700M poly) but has won at 1800M turf.
11) 88.63 (1700M poly)
10) 83.2 …very very unlikely
12) 79.5 (1800M poly)…no hoper…what is he doing in this race at all
I fancy at least one of the 2 horses from 9 and 3 to upset and make it into the top 4 while 1 despite the top impost looks a good and safe chance to make the top 4 and likely to be in the top 3 despite in theory being long in the tooth at 8 years of age but his performances (belies his age) since arriving into Singapore have been very zestful and inspiring.
In order my selections are 14-9-1-3-8-5-2(if you don’t fancy the form of 2 I suggest replacing him with 2 but my best advice is to ignore and leave both out of the reckoning. I suggest a big bet as she would be very safe for a place and should lead the boys on a merry dance of the pace remains slow.
Singapore Nap Selection: number 14 NEW ROSE WOOD X 2
Next Singapore Nap: 15th April 2011
Supplied by Patrick Khoo in Singapore
Time Nap posted: 05:45am, 10th April 2011 (Hong Kong time)
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Principles: Singapore Nap is a weekly recommended 1pt win bet or bets chosen in a principal race held in Singapore. Naps are usually posted on Friday evening or Saturday morning, Hong Kong time.
Singapore Nap is chosen by Patrick Khoo, who is based in Singapore and was the Chief Editor for the publication "Insiders111" under the pen name "Iizi".
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© 7naps.com
This page last updated on 10 Apr 2011
THIS IS A REPRODUCTION OF MY BLOG ON 7NAPS.COM AND WILL NOT COUNT IN MY TALLY ON STARSTATZ RACING
10 Apr 2011
New Rose Wood (x2)
RACE 10 JBBA(JAPAN BREEDERS BLOODSTOCK ASSOCIATION OR IS IT AGENCY ?) MOONBEAM VASE- GROUP 3
1800M LONG COURSE B
STAKES $200,000
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
My bravado pick of Williams on Singapore Nap did not pan out. On my Starstatz Racing blog I corrected the advice I gave (after receiving the trackwatch report to go for a 70% to 80% big bet on Black Ice and a 20-30% cover bet on Williams. Those on my mailing list received my corrected advice before the start of Race 2 and managed a conolation payout of $%8 on the place forecast. This is a good example of how a late twitter service could improve on media tipsters who have to do their selection early and would definitely be worth waiting and paying for. A pundit who averages a 30% strike rate could easily improve to a 50% strike rate after checking the weight of horses, seeing the condition of the horses in the paddock and after getting a full trackwork report. As a point in fairness a race book like Racing Guide and Punters Way will have an disadvantage over Shin Min , Wan Bao and Victory Trail and they in turn will be disadvantaged when compared to the New Paper and finally blogs like Starstatz Racing where posting is done before the start of races but late mail(not early late mail given early before the start of Race 1 will have a distinct disadvantage when compared to the pundit who tips 10 mins before the start of each race after viewing the condition of the horses in the paddock. A truly late twitter service will have a distinct advantage with access to more relevant up-to-date vital data.
My suggestion of the week for STC will give a leg-up for small budget racegoers! I brought it up last season but nothing has been done to date. STC and Singapore Pools should introduce the i-bet service currently in use in 4D betting by the Singapore Pools and the Tote Board. They could modify it and adopt the exact same system as the 4D i-bet or they could take a percentage of the full permutation bet in percentages of 10% increments from 10% to 90%. If the percentages end up with cents than I am sure the small budget player will not mine topping it up and pay to the highest dollar for the benefit od STC . Likewise the winning dividends can be downsized to the nearest dollar. Imagine if you had struck the i-bet quartet of $16,727 when Better Be the One won his first race. The full permutation bet would have cost $240 to have BBTO as a lone banker boxed with 6 horses on the 2nd/3rd and 4th lines. For a 10% bet. The investment would have been $24 and the win 10% payout would have been $1672. This is one of the exciting ways we can improve racing by creating more winners in the exotic bets eventually resulting in greate betting turnover and it is a win-win situation between the ordinary racegoer and STC. This should allow us to compete on better terms with the wiles of Ms Marina Bay and Ms Resorts World. With this feedback I hope the betting department introduce this sooner rather. It would not cause any concern if the minimum bet can be put at $10 or even $20.
At this point in time Starstatz Racing and Singapore Nap(from the 7Naps website) are the top 2 tipsters in terms of strike rate when compared to the leaders in the Winner21 Challenge
For the record Starstatz Racing has the best current strike rate with 19 wins from 64 races for a strike rate of 29.69% and Singapore Nap with 8 wins / 7 placings from races for a strike rate of 28.57 %. If New Rose Wood gets the Winner’s laurel then Singapore Nap will leapfrog into 1st place and edge out my other blog Starstatz Racing into 2nd place
I am taking a short break (for this week at least) on my blog on www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com
OVERVIEW
My belief that the Rose among the thorns is a shoo-in today is not shared by 50% of the media tipsters and horses like Parfumier , Jamal Malik, King Falcon (Straits Times advertorial in an article late in the week…which I believe will flop and not likely to make the top 4…very disappointing indeed…I hope I don’t get egg in the face for predicting his likely failure), South Easter. However horses like Thundering Jet and Tell A Tale are well handicapped but have been neglected and might spring a surprise to make the top 4 to make the dividends more appetizing!
The pace will be good to slow with front running trio of 4-5-12 leading the way with on pace runners 14-8-13-10-9-11-6 in close attendance and off pace runners 2-3-1-7 bringing up the tail end. Our selection NRW(New Rose Wood) is likely to get the box seat with a rails run tucked right behind the front running trio. Should any one from this trio be a late scratching it would make her task that much easier and emulate Jolie’s Shinju before her.
This race looks like it was meant for her to win it as if this was a normal handicap race she would have been made to carry 56kg but is instead carrying bottom weight of 50kg. El Dorado also has a handicap advantage but has been in poor form for his last 4 runs and has not done well since 16 Feb 2010 and looks in lacklustre form. In long distance races like today SF and timings are a very minor factor and I won’t even bother to do the calculation. Bloodstock analysis will come into it but with most of the contenders having experience at this race distance this factor will be less of a vital factor than HR(handicap ratings) which points to 14 as a shoo-in with her 12 placings a minor cause of concern compared to her 4 wins from 21 starts. Relatively unfashionable Sivan would make her an attractive propostion with an expected dividend of at least $15 even if she retains 1st favouritism . Sivan is a less glamourous name when compared to Powell, Duric,Vorster, Verenzuela, Cunha and Moreira but I strongly believe the NRW will charm the boys into submission. I have a suggestion for Craig Evans and Matthew Jones especially if they fancy NRW’s chances…play the song Cracklin” Rosie by Neil Diamond.
The respective HR’s are :-
14) 104.3 (1800M poly) and 101.2 (2000M turf)…will be an even better bet if weight increases further by approximately 5 kg
2) 101.1 (2000M turf)…in poor form last 4 runs…last good run was on 16 Feb 2010
9) 100.5…won Group 3…the main threat and looks in good form despite being neglected by the media tipsters
3) 98.5 (2000M turf)…Won Group 1 turf at 1600M and placed 5 times at Group 1 level over distance races up to 2400M…has miler pedigree through sire Tale of the Cat and comfortable at 1800M distance but has staying blood through Damsire Sir Tristram…classy dark horse but inferior HR compared to 14 and 9. Ignore him at your own peril as easily the horse with the best past credentials but has not shown it consistently since arriving and is a doubt.
5) 95.63 (1600M poly)…has won on 1600M turf and won on 1800M poly
1) 94.87 (1600M poly)…can handle turf due wins at 1900M turf and Group 2 placed
8) 92 (1900M poly)…best staying Sire in this race Gallileo is the first Sire Maykabe Diva (Melbourne Cup Winner) has been mated with…classy on breeding
13) 91.3 (2000M turf)
7) 91 (1900M poly)…AWT type
4) 90 (1800M poly)
6) 89 (1700M poly) but has won at 1800M turf.
11) 88.63 (1700M poly)
10) 83.2 …very very unlikely
12) 79.5 (1800M poly)…no hoper…what is he doing in this race at all
I fancy at least one of the 2 horses from 9 and 3 to upset and make it into the top 4 while 1 despite the top impost looks a good and safe chance to make the top 4 and likely to be in the top 3 despite in theory being long in the tooth at 8 years of age but his performances (belies his age) since arriving into Singapore have been very zestful and inspiring.
In order my selections are 14-9-1-3-8-5-2(if you don’t fancy the form of 2 I suggest replacing him with 2 but my best advice is to ignore and leave both out of the reckoning. I suggest a big bet as she would be very safe for a place and should lead the boys on a merry dance of the pace remains slow.
Singapore Nap Selection: number 14 NEW ROSE WOOD X 2
Next Singapore Nap: 15th April 2011
Supplied by Patrick Khoo in Singapore
Time Nap posted: 05:45am, 10th April 2011 (Hong Kong time)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Principles: Singapore Nap is a weekly recommended 1pt win bet or bets chosen in a principal race held in Singapore. Naps are usually posted on Friday evening or Saturday morning, Hong Kong time.
Singapore Nap is chosen by Patrick Khoo, who is based in Singapore and was the Chief Editor for the publication "Insiders111" under the pen name "Iizi".
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
© 7naps.com
This page last updated on 10 Apr 2011
08 April 2011
STARSTATZ RACING 08 APRIL 2011 replica of Singapore Nap posting
This is only a reproduction of my blog on the 7naps website and will not count in the tally. The trackwatcher has indicated that nbr 2 Black Ice is in special top form and is still the horse to beat as he is the best class horse in the race with the best strike rate. I would suggest a strong forecast / pft bet on 6#2 and a token pft cover bet on 6-2#4. I highly recommend Dutch betting on 6 and 2 and at least a 30% ro 40% cover bet on 6 and a 50% to 70% on 2 but the selection on Singapore Nap remains on 6 for the Media Tipster Challenge tally.
Singapore Nap
8 Apr 2011
Williams (x2)
RACE 9 OPEN B83
1200M POLYTRACK
STAKES $95,000
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
First the bouquets…Bravo for Hui Liang’s top tipster of the day performance with 6 wins from 10 races … a splendid performance indeed! Racing Guide does not seem to be in the scintillating form of the past 2 seasons and they seem to be somewhat of the pace with a slow start to the season. I reckon there has been a changing of the guard with a different tipster at the helm to account the drop in form from the past 2 seasons leading performances. However I reckon that they will still be in the top 5 at the end of the season unless the top gun returns sooner rather than later. The battle for the top tipster in the winner21 challenge is going to be an intriguing battle but I will make a bold prediction …they will not beat my strike rate of season 2009 and neither will they beat Racing Guide’s 2010 record of 256 winners in one season despite the likelihood that there are more races this year. Here’s my bold prediction…I believe the winner will be between Tan Thean Loon and Hui Liang with TTL having the edge on experience. Punters Way and Winner21(including sms) have made improvements for this season but are not consistent enough to be a serious threat based on their form for the past 2 seasons . Larry Foley attempt at long distance analysis without watching trackwork will make it difficult for him to do stellar arm chair tipping from Down Under unless he relocates to Singapore. Andrew Frost does sterling work on Winning Workouts and does for Singapore Racing what Jenny Chapman does for HKG Jockey Club in spotting in form horses but based on his previous seasons’s performances he lacks the killer cutting edge to be the Champion Media Tipster but is a cinch for the Top 5 and a very good bet for the Top 3 positions. Xiu Fang and Ma Chao are longshots to win but 7 points off the pace is a tall order for them to overhaul the current leaders. Victory Trail as I had predicted are in the bottom half of the Winner21 Challenge as I had predicted at the start of the season despite the odd good performance in HKG races.
At this point in time Starstatz Racing and Singapore Nap(from the 7Naps website) are the top 2 tipsters in terms of strike rate when compared to the leaders in the Winner21 Challenge. It might be said I am competing unfairly when I am not tipping all the races but I operate on a strict set of guidelines on 7nap…I have to tip one race per day …the highest class race of the day in terms of Prize Money Stakes regardless of whether it is a difficult race or a shoo-in like Rocket Man and Better Than Ever. For Starstatz Racing I could easily be Champion Media Tipster by a landslide if I stick to selective tipping of races when only Rocket Man, Better Than Ever or Better Be The One participates in only. To make it fair for all concerned parties I have imposed my own rules by tipping all the races in the day’s card of races. After proving myself not despite top 2 top of the table perforamances in the last 2 seasons I have not managed any gainful renumeration in terms of employment or monetary advantage for services rendered. I still harbour hopes of providing a late mail twitter service one day if I am not busy with my travel agency commitments. For this season I hope that one of my blogs will provide the best strike rate performance of the season and if I happen to provide the forecast for the best 2 performances(despite a slow start and last position with Singapore Nap with zero wins in the entire month of January) it would only serve to confirm and validate that my performances of the last 2 seasons were not a fluke or flash in the pan. It would confirm that the methodologies in use after learning from my Mentor Benny Ortega(The Emeritus Chief Editor of Racing Guide). Winning in racing is not about picking the horse with the fastest timings or the best looking horse in trackwork or the horse with the best timed workout or barrier trials. Neither is it solely looking at handicap ratings(most important factor) to analyse the races but together with Speed Map and pace analysis we will arrive at a better informed judicious opinion on the outcome of races. Of course the are other factors like sectional times(is it better to use the 1st 400M and the last 400M or should we use the last 600M as a method of analysis). Even factors like bloodstock and class analysis have a role to play when the horse is competing at a longer distance for the 1st time.The key question for the racing fraternity is this…How many of these factors are used at all when our media tipsters form their opinions? If our so called experts(not all of us qualify as a horse racing pundit) are not using these factors for consideration in their analysis I fear the worst for the average racegoer who may be less experienced than our professional journalists.
For the record Starstatz Racing has the best current strike rate with 19 wins from 64 races for a strike rate of 29.69% and Singapore Nap with 8 wins / 7 placings from 27 races for a strike rate of 29.63%. Tan Thean Loon and Hui Liang are in joint 3rd with 78 wins from 275 races for a strike rate of 28.36%.Punters Way are in 5th on 76 wins with a strike rate of 27.64% Andrew Frost and Winner21(sms) in joint 6th with 73 wins with a strike rate of 26.55%. Larry Foley is in 8th on 72 wins with a strike rate of 26.18% and Ma Chao and Xiu Fang are in joint 9th on 25.82% . I think it would be safe to assume that none(except for Andrew Frost) from the stable of STC journalists are in the top 5 among media tipsters when comparing strike rates...and I do believe the Straits Times advertorials are in the bottom 5 on number of wins but they cannot be taken to task for dividends with Wallinger big money win last month(if they are I hope STC will respond and correct me with update on their scores) based on their performances of the last 2 seasons
I strongly recommend that the STC should keep track of the journalists in their stable should keep track of their scores and strike rates (if they miss a couple of races when they are on leave). Likewise publications like Racing Guide and Turf Guide should keep track of their scores on a consistent basis rather than posting their scores only when they are first. If there is no tracking of scores where is the credibility and sense of professionalism and competition to strive for improvement in tipping standards. If this is not being done where is the incentive to tip better scores and these tipsters will hide in the cloak of mediocrity and anonymity. If they are reticent about their scores than this indifferent attitude will continue to fester if left unchecked by the supervising Managers involved. If tipsters are unable to take the spotlight then they should pick another profession. Unless they are tipping longshots on a consistent basis like Marc Tan I would suggest that minimum standard of 20% strike rate should be maintained for the credibility and reputation of the publications they represent. In my next post I will cover my bugbears regarding the tipping of only one horse when they have so much space to spare… I feel they should tip 4 races so they can compare themselves with the other media tipsters. The other issue I will cover in my next post will be on the equivalent of 4D – i – bet for playing the tierce and quartets. I hope this form of betting will be implemented sooner rather than later for the benefit of the average low budget racegoer.
I am taking a short break (for this week at least) on my blog on www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com
OVERVIEW
At 1st glance Black Ice with the best strike rate of 35.71%(5 wins from 14 starts)looks a stand-out in this field and he still looks like the horse to beat. On closer examination based on 4 positive factors HR(handicap ratings), SF(projected timings based on weight carried),pace of the race (very slow pace will suit 6 better than 2) and bloodstock analysis(the sire of 6 Elusive City despite only winning one race but at Group 1 level compared to sire of 2 Mugharreb winning 3 races…moreover the sire of 6 has also produced a Group 1 winner in the filly Elusive Wave compared to 2 at only Listed Race level). I rate both at having equal chances of winning and are the only 2 serious contenders but the difference is that 6 is at the 4th line of favouritism and hence a value bet compared to 2 being the likely odds on race favourite. I find it strange and suspicious that some respected tipsters don’t even have him among their top 4 picks.
The pace will be very slow with 8 the lone front runner who will easily get the rails runs without espanding too much petrol to take the lead. On pace runners 5-7-6 will jump next and 0ff pace runners 10-4-2-1 will follow with closer 3 taking the tail end. 9 has the best HR of 85.5 but has been poor in his last 3 runs and appears in poor form while 10 is on HR84.55 albeit on turf(however he has won on 1300M in soft going which should indicate he will adept well on the polytrack. 7 has the next best HR of 84.33 done ages ago on 11 June 2010 but he has been in extreme poor form for his past 10 runs. 6 has the next best HR done over 1100M polytrack. The other HRs are 3 on HR81.17 , 9 on HR80.37, 4 on HR80.66 done on 1100M polytrack,2on HR79.17, 1 on HR77.17 and 5 on HR75.5. On SF 6 has a SF of 1:11.04 extrapolated from 1100M polytrack while 2 is on 1:12.23.The other interesting HRs are 3 at 1:11.85, 4 at 1:11.53 extrapolated from 1100M ,5 at SF 1:12.52 , 8 at SF 1:11.41 and 9 at 1:11.74.
I am taking a slight risk by making 6 a special X 2 bet despite having only a 50% chance and I could have played it safe by making the favourite 2 as my 1st pick but I am not taking the easy way out by playing it safe. In reality I suggest Dutch betting on both horses and using both 6 and 2 as joint bankers on the 1st line in any exotic bet and put a big bet on both the forecast / place forecast with a cover forecast/place forecast on 6-8 in case 8 gets a soft cushy lead without being pushed. Lately favourites have been falling like 9 pins in the top race of the day…let’s see if this trend continues. With 2 horses in the field 2 may not be Burridge’s main focus to win and 8 might run a cheeky race and sneak a win if left unchallenged upfront. Likewise Williams stablemate has been hogging the spotlight this week with eye-catching track workouts but I suspect 4 is better suited for the shorter 1000M as he is by the short sprint specialist sire Fasliyev and good ole’ Laxon being a Master Handicapper is directing the spotlight on Break Free for a generous healthy dividend on Williams and I strongly believe Williams and not Break Free will be the wily Laxon’s main play unless Black Ice gets the greenlight ahead of Williams. Wallinger is by the same Group 1 winning sire Sharmadal as last week’s winner Gingerbread Man but the handicap is not in his favour this time despite winning last time out(form obviously in good order).
In order my selections are 6-2-8-4-5-10-3. I suggest using 2 bankers 6 and 2 on the 1st line and if you have a limited budget use 6-2-8-4 on the 2nd line with the remainder on the 3rd and 4th lines. If 6 wins expect a bonanza payout and if 10 makes the top 4 be prepared for an extravagant payday! I 've got a shoo-in on Sunday belonging to the female species and as most chauvanistic male racegoers are biased against the weaker sex I do expect a dividend of at least $15 on the win line! Good Luck!
Singapore Nap Selection: number 6 Williams X 2
Next Singapore Nap: 10th April 2011
Supplied by Patrick Khoo in Singapore
Time Nap posted: 05:45am, 8th April 2011 (Hong Kong time)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Principles: Singapore Nap is a weekly recommended 1pt win bet or bets chosen in a principal race held in Singapore. Naps are usually posted on Friday evening or Saturday morning, Hong Kong time.
Singapore Nap is chosen by Patrick Khoo, who is based in Singapore and was the Chief Editor for the publication "Insiders111" under the pen name "Iizi".
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
© 7naps.com
This page last updated on 8 Apr 2011
Singapore Nap
8 Apr 2011
Williams (x2)
RACE 9 OPEN B83
1200M POLYTRACK
STAKES $95,000
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
First the bouquets…Bravo for Hui Liang’s top tipster of the day performance with 6 wins from 10 races … a splendid performance indeed! Racing Guide does not seem to be in the scintillating form of the past 2 seasons and they seem to be somewhat of the pace with a slow start to the season. I reckon there has been a changing of the guard with a different tipster at the helm to account the drop in form from the past 2 seasons leading performances. However I reckon that they will still be in the top 5 at the end of the season unless the top gun returns sooner rather than later. The battle for the top tipster in the winner21 challenge is going to be an intriguing battle but I will make a bold prediction …they will not beat my strike rate of season 2009 and neither will they beat Racing Guide’s 2010 record of 256 winners in one season despite the likelihood that there are more races this year. Here’s my bold prediction…I believe the winner will be between Tan Thean Loon and Hui Liang with TTL having the edge on experience. Punters Way and Winner21(including sms) have made improvements for this season but are not consistent enough to be a serious threat based on their form for the past 2 seasons . Larry Foley attempt at long distance analysis without watching trackwork will make it difficult for him to do stellar arm chair tipping from Down Under unless he relocates to Singapore. Andrew Frost does sterling work on Winning Workouts and does for Singapore Racing what Jenny Chapman does for HKG Jockey Club in spotting in form horses but based on his previous seasons’s performances he lacks the killer cutting edge to be the Champion Media Tipster but is a cinch for the Top 5 and a very good bet for the Top 3 positions. Xiu Fang and Ma Chao are longshots to win but 7 points off the pace is a tall order for them to overhaul the current leaders. Victory Trail as I had predicted are in the bottom half of the Winner21 Challenge as I had predicted at the start of the season despite the odd good performance in HKG races.
At this point in time Starstatz Racing and Singapore Nap(from the 7Naps website) are the top 2 tipsters in terms of strike rate when compared to the leaders in the Winner21 Challenge. It might be said I am competing unfairly when I am not tipping all the races but I operate on a strict set of guidelines on 7nap…I have to tip one race per day …the highest class race of the day in terms of Prize Money Stakes regardless of whether it is a difficult race or a shoo-in like Rocket Man and Better Than Ever. For Starstatz Racing I could easily be Champion Media Tipster by a landslide if I stick to selective tipping of races when only Rocket Man, Better Than Ever or Better Be The One participates in only. To make it fair for all concerned parties I have imposed my own rules by tipping all the races in the day’s card of races. After proving myself not despite top 2 top of the table perforamances in the last 2 seasons I have not managed any gainful renumeration in terms of employment or monetary advantage for services rendered. I still harbour hopes of providing a late mail twitter service one day if I am not busy with my travel agency commitments. For this season I hope that one of my blogs will provide the best strike rate performance of the season and if I happen to provide the forecast for the best 2 performances(despite a slow start and last position with Singapore Nap with zero wins in the entire month of January) it would only serve to confirm and validate that my performances of the last 2 seasons were not a fluke or flash in the pan. It would confirm that the methodologies in use after learning from my Mentor Benny Ortega(The Emeritus Chief Editor of Racing Guide). Winning in racing is not about picking the horse with the fastest timings or the best looking horse in trackwork or the horse with the best timed workout or barrier trials. Neither is it solely looking at handicap ratings(most important factor) to analyse the races but together with Speed Map and pace analysis we will arrive at a better informed judicious opinion on the outcome of races. Of course the are other factors like sectional times(is it better to use the 1st 400M and the last 400M or should we use the last 600M as a method of analysis). Even factors like bloodstock and class analysis have a role to play when the horse is competing at a longer distance for the 1st time.The key question for the racing fraternity is this…How many of these factors are used at all when our media tipsters form their opinions? If our so called experts(not all of us qualify as a horse racing pundit) are not using these factors for consideration in their analysis I fear the worst for the average racegoer who may be less experienced than our professional journalists.
For the record Starstatz Racing has the best current strike rate with 19 wins from 64 races for a strike rate of 29.69% and Singapore Nap with 8 wins / 7 placings from 27 races for a strike rate of 29.63%. Tan Thean Loon and Hui Liang are in joint 3rd with 78 wins from 275 races for a strike rate of 28.36%.Punters Way are in 5th on 76 wins with a strike rate of 27.64% Andrew Frost and Winner21(sms) in joint 6th with 73 wins with a strike rate of 26.55%. Larry Foley is in 8th on 72 wins with a strike rate of 26.18% and Ma Chao and Xiu Fang are in joint 9th on 25.82% . I think it would be safe to assume that none(except for Andrew Frost) from the stable of STC journalists are in the top 5 among media tipsters when comparing strike rates...and I do believe the Straits Times advertorials are in the bottom 5 on number of wins but they cannot be taken to task for dividends with Wallinger big money win last month(if they are I hope STC will respond and correct me with update on their scores) based on their performances of the last 2 seasons
I strongly recommend that the STC should keep track of the journalists in their stable should keep track of their scores and strike rates (if they miss a couple of races when they are on leave). Likewise publications like Racing Guide and Turf Guide should keep track of their scores on a consistent basis rather than posting their scores only when they are first. If there is no tracking of scores where is the credibility and sense of professionalism and competition to strive for improvement in tipping standards. If this is not being done where is the incentive to tip better scores and these tipsters will hide in the cloak of mediocrity and anonymity. If they are reticent about their scores than this indifferent attitude will continue to fester if left unchecked by the supervising Managers involved. If tipsters are unable to take the spotlight then they should pick another profession. Unless they are tipping longshots on a consistent basis like Marc Tan I would suggest that minimum standard of 20% strike rate should be maintained for the credibility and reputation of the publications they represent. In my next post I will cover my bugbears regarding the tipping of only one horse when they have so much space to spare… I feel they should tip 4 races so they can compare themselves with the other media tipsters. The other issue I will cover in my next post will be on the equivalent of 4D – i – bet for playing the tierce and quartets. I hope this form of betting will be implemented sooner rather than later for the benefit of the average low budget racegoer.
I am taking a short break (for this week at least) on my blog on www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com
OVERVIEW
At 1st glance Black Ice with the best strike rate of 35.71%(5 wins from 14 starts)looks a stand-out in this field and he still looks like the horse to beat. On closer examination based on 4 positive factors HR(handicap ratings), SF(projected timings based on weight carried),pace of the race (very slow pace will suit 6 better than 2) and bloodstock analysis(the sire of 6 Elusive City despite only winning one race but at Group 1 level compared to sire of 2 Mugharreb winning 3 races…moreover the sire of 6 has also produced a Group 1 winner in the filly Elusive Wave compared to 2 at only Listed Race level). I rate both at having equal chances of winning and are the only 2 serious contenders but the difference is that 6 is at the 4th line of favouritism and hence a value bet compared to 2 being the likely odds on race favourite. I find it strange and suspicious that some respected tipsters don’t even have him among their top 4 picks.
The pace will be very slow with 8 the lone front runner who will easily get the rails runs without espanding too much petrol to take the lead. On pace runners 5-7-6 will jump next and 0ff pace runners 10-4-2-1 will follow with closer 3 taking the tail end. 9 has the best HR of 85.5 but has been poor in his last 3 runs and appears in poor form while 10 is on HR84.55 albeit on turf(however he has won on 1300M in soft going which should indicate he will adept well on the polytrack. 7 has the next best HR of 84.33 done ages ago on 11 June 2010 but he has been in extreme poor form for his past 10 runs. 6 has the next best HR done over 1100M polytrack. The other HRs are 3 on HR81.17 , 9 on HR80.37, 4 on HR80.66 done on 1100M polytrack,2on HR79.17, 1 on HR77.17 and 5 on HR75.5. On SF 6 has a SF of 1:11.04 extrapolated from 1100M polytrack while 2 is on 1:12.23.The other interesting HRs are 3 at 1:11.85, 4 at 1:11.53 extrapolated from 1100M ,5 at SF 1:12.52 , 8 at SF 1:11.41 and 9 at 1:11.74.
I am taking a slight risk by making 6 a special X 2 bet despite having only a 50% chance and I could have played it safe by making the favourite 2 as my 1st pick but I am not taking the easy way out by playing it safe. In reality I suggest Dutch betting on both horses and using both 6 and 2 as joint bankers on the 1st line in any exotic bet and put a big bet on both the forecast / place forecast with a cover forecast/place forecast on 6-8 in case 8 gets a soft cushy lead without being pushed. Lately favourites have been falling like 9 pins in the top race of the day…let’s see if this trend continues. With 2 horses in the field 2 may not be Burridge’s main focus to win and 8 might run a cheeky race and sneak a win if left unchallenged upfront. Likewise Williams stablemate has been hogging the spotlight this week with eye-catching track workouts but I suspect 4 is better suited for the shorter 1000M as he is by the short sprint specialist sire Fasliyev and good ole’ Laxon being a Master Handicapper is directing the spotlight on Break Free for a generous healthy dividend on Williams and I strongly believe Williams and not Break Free will be the wily Laxon’s main play unless Black Ice gets the greenlight ahead of Williams. Wallinger is by the same Group 1 winning sire Sharmadal as last week’s winner Gingerbread Man but the handicap is not in his favour this time despite winning last time out(form obviously in good order).
In order my selections are 6-2-8-4-5-10-3. I suggest using 2 bankers 6 and 2 on the 1st line and if you have a limited budget use 6-2-8-4 on the 2nd line with the remainder on the 3rd and 4th lines. If 6 wins expect a bonanza payout and if 10 makes the top 4 be prepared for an extravagant payday! I 've got a shoo-in on Sunday belonging to the female species and as most chauvanistic male racegoers are biased against the weaker sex I do expect a dividend of at least $15 on the win line! Good Luck!
Singapore Nap Selection: number 6 Williams X 2
Next Singapore Nap: 10th April 2011
Supplied by Patrick Khoo in Singapore
Time Nap posted: 05:45am, 8th April 2011 (Hong Kong time)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Principles: Singapore Nap is a weekly recommended 1pt win bet or bets chosen in a principal race held in Singapore. Naps are usually posted on Friday evening or Saturday morning, Hong Kong time.
Singapore Nap is chosen by Patrick Khoo, who is based in Singapore and was the Chief Editor for the publication "Insiders111" under the pen name "Iizi".
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
© 7naps.com
This page last updated on 8 Apr 2011
01 April 2011
STARSTATZ RACING 01 APRIL 2011
After a long siesta I am making a comeback on Starstatz with the best strike rateamong all the media tipsters with 16 wins from 54 selections for a strike rate nof 29.63% > Check my blog on www.7naps.com for details.
My selections for today are :-
RACE 1 ... 12-7-1-8
RACE 2 BIG ...13-6-8-4...BEST BET OF THE DAY
RACE 3 SMALL... 3-7-1-10
RACE 4 MEDIUM....6-13-1-11
RACE 5 BIG ...6-10-7-9
RACE 6 SMALL... 7-1-3-6...BEST LONGSHOT OF THE NIGHT
RACE 7 MEDIUM...4-7-10-5
RACE 8 BIG ...1-3-2-5...BEST VALUE BET
RACE 9 SMALL...11-8-1-4
RACE 10 SMALL ...10-9-11-8
My selections for today are :-
RACE 1 ... 12-7-1-8
RACE 2 BIG ...13-6-8-4...BEST BET OF THE DAY
RACE 3 SMALL... 3-7-1-10
RACE 4 MEDIUM....6-13-1-11
RACE 5 BIG ...6-10-7-9
RACE 6 SMALL... 7-1-3-6...BEST LONGSHOT OF THE NIGHT
RACE 7 MEDIUM...4-7-10-5
RACE 8 BIG ...1-3-2-5...BEST VALUE BET
RACE 9 SMALL...11-8-1-4
RACE 10 SMALL ...10-9-11-8
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