This is only a reproduction of my blog on the 7naps website and will not count in the tally. The trackwatcher has indicated that nbr 2 Black Ice is in special top form and is still the horse to beat as he is the best class horse in the race with the best strike rate. I would suggest a strong forecast / pft bet on 6#2 and a token pft cover bet on 6-2#4. I highly recommend Dutch betting on 6 and 2 and at least a 30% ro 40% cover bet on 6 and a 50% to 70% on 2 but the selection on Singapore Nap remains on 6 for the Media Tipster Challenge tally.
Singapore Nap
8 Apr 2011
Williams (x2)
RACE 9 OPEN B83
1200M POLYTRACK
STAKES $95,000
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
First the bouquets…Bravo for Hui Liang’s top tipster of the day performance with 6 wins from 10 races … a splendid performance indeed! Racing Guide does not seem to be in the scintillating form of the past 2 seasons and they seem to be somewhat of the pace with a slow start to the season. I reckon there has been a changing of the guard with a different tipster at the helm to account the drop in form from the past 2 seasons leading performances. However I reckon that they will still be in the top 5 at the end of the season unless the top gun returns sooner rather than later. The battle for the top tipster in the winner21 challenge is going to be an intriguing battle but I will make a bold prediction …they will not beat my strike rate of season 2009 and neither will they beat Racing Guide’s 2010 record of 256 winners in one season despite the likelihood that there are more races this year. Here’s my bold prediction…I believe the winner will be between Tan Thean Loon and Hui Liang with TTL having the edge on experience. Punters Way and Winner21(including sms) have made improvements for this season but are not consistent enough to be a serious threat based on their form for the past 2 seasons . Larry Foley attempt at long distance analysis without watching trackwork will make it difficult for him to do stellar arm chair tipping from Down Under unless he relocates to Singapore. Andrew Frost does sterling work on Winning Workouts and does for Singapore Racing what Jenny Chapman does for HKG Jockey Club in spotting in form horses but based on his previous seasons’s performances he lacks the killer cutting edge to be the Champion Media Tipster but is a cinch for the Top 5 and a very good bet for the Top 3 positions. Xiu Fang and Ma Chao are longshots to win but 7 points off the pace is a tall order for them to overhaul the current leaders. Victory Trail as I had predicted are in the bottom half of the Winner21 Challenge as I had predicted at the start of the season despite the odd good performance in HKG races.
At this point in time Starstatz Racing and Singapore Nap(from the 7Naps website) are the top 2 tipsters in terms of strike rate when compared to the leaders in the Winner21 Challenge. It might be said I am competing unfairly when I am not tipping all the races but I operate on a strict set of guidelines on 7nap…I have to tip one race per day …the highest class race of the day in terms of Prize Money Stakes regardless of whether it is a difficult race or a shoo-in like Rocket Man and Better Than Ever. For Starstatz Racing I could easily be Champion Media Tipster by a landslide if I stick to selective tipping of races when only Rocket Man, Better Than Ever or Better Be The One participates in only. To make it fair for all concerned parties I have imposed my own rules by tipping all the races in the day’s card of races. After proving myself not despite top 2 top of the table perforamances in the last 2 seasons I have not managed any gainful renumeration in terms of employment or monetary advantage for services rendered. I still harbour hopes of providing a late mail twitter service one day if I am not busy with my travel agency commitments. For this season I hope that one of my blogs will provide the best strike rate performance of the season and if I happen to provide the forecast for the best 2 performances(despite a slow start and last position with Singapore Nap with zero wins in the entire month of January) it would only serve to confirm and validate that my performances of the last 2 seasons were not a fluke or flash in the pan. It would confirm that the methodologies in use after learning from my Mentor Benny Ortega(The Emeritus Chief Editor of Racing Guide). Winning in racing is not about picking the horse with the fastest timings or the best looking horse in trackwork or the horse with the best timed workout or barrier trials. Neither is it solely looking at handicap ratings(most important factor) to analyse the races but together with Speed Map and pace analysis we will arrive at a better informed judicious opinion on the outcome of races. Of course the are other factors like sectional times(is it better to use the 1st 400M and the last 400M or should we use the last 600M as a method of analysis). Even factors like bloodstock and class analysis have a role to play when the horse is competing at a longer distance for the 1st time.The key question for the racing fraternity is this…How many of these factors are used at all when our media tipsters form their opinions? If our so called experts(not all of us qualify as a horse racing pundit) are not using these factors for consideration in their analysis I fear the worst for the average racegoer who may be less experienced than our professional journalists.
For the record Starstatz Racing has the best current strike rate with 19 wins from 64 races for a strike rate of 29.69% and Singapore Nap with 8 wins / 7 placings from 27 races for a strike rate of 29.63%. Tan Thean Loon and Hui Liang are in joint 3rd with 78 wins from 275 races for a strike rate of 28.36%.Punters Way are in 5th on 76 wins with a strike rate of 27.64% Andrew Frost and Winner21(sms) in joint 6th with 73 wins with a strike rate of 26.55%. Larry Foley is in 8th on 72 wins with a strike rate of 26.18% and Ma Chao and Xiu Fang are in joint 9th on 25.82% . I think it would be safe to assume that none(except for Andrew Frost) from the stable of STC journalists are in the top 5 among media tipsters when comparing strike rates...and I do believe the Straits Times advertorials are in the bottom 5 on number of wins but they cannot be taken to task for dividends with Wallinger big money win last month(if they are I hope STC will respond and correct me with update on their scores) based on their performances of the last 2 seasons
I strongly recommend that the STC should keep track of the journalists in their stable should keep track of their scores and strike rates (if they miss a couple of races when they are on leave). Likewise publications like Racing Guide and Turf Guide should keep track of their scores on a consistent basis rather than posting their scores only when they are first. If there is no tracking of scores where is the credibility and sense of professionalism and competition to strive for improvement in tipping standards. If this is not being done where is the incentive to tip better scores and these tipsters will hide in the cloak of mediocrity and anonymity. If they are reticent about their scores than this indifferent attitude will continue to fester if left unchecked by the supervising Managers involved. If tipsters are unable to take the spotlight then they should pick another profession. Unless they are tipping longshots on a consistent basis like Marc Tan I would suggest that minimum standard of 20% strike rate should be maintained for the credibility and reputation of the publications they represent. In my next post I will cover my bugbears regarding the tipping of only one horse when they have so much space to spare… I feel they should tip 4 races so they can compare themselves with the other media tipsters. The other issue I will cover in my next post will be on the equivalent of 4D – i – bet for playing the tierce and quartets. I hope this form of betting will be implemented sooner rather than later for the benefit of the average low budget racegoer.
I am taking a short break (for this week at least) on my blog on www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com
OVERVIEW
At 1st glance Black Ice with the best strike rate of 35.71%(5 wins from 14 starts)looks a stand-out in this field and he still looks like the horse to beat. On closer examination based on 4 positive factors HR(handicap ratings), SF(projected timings based on weight carried),pace of the race (very slow pace will suit 6 better than 2) and bloodstock analysis(the sire of 6 Elusive City despite only winning one race but at Group 1 level compared to sire of 2 Mugharreb winning 3 races…moreover the sire of 6 has also produced a Group 1 winner in the filly Elusive Wave compared to 2 at only Listed Race level). I rate both at having equal chances of winning and are the only 2 serious contenders but the difference is that 6 is at the 4th line of favouritism and hence a value bet compared to 2 being the likely odds on race favourite. I find it strange and suspicious that some respected tipsters don’t even have him among their top 4 picks.
The pace will be very slow with 8 the lone front runner who will easily get the rails runs without espanding too much petrol to take the lead. On pace runners 5-7-6 will jump next and 0ff pace runners 10-4-2-1 will follow with closer 3 taking the tail end. 9 has the best HR of 85.5 but has been poor in his last 3 runs and appears in poor form while 10 is on HR84.55 albeit on turf(however he has won on 1300M in soft going which should indicate he will adept well on the polytrack. 7 has the next best HR of 84.33 done ages ago on 11 June 2010 but he has been in extreme poor form for his past 10 runs. 6 has the next best HR done over 1100M polytrack. The other HRs are 3 on HR81.17 , 9 on HR80.37, 4 on HR80.66 done on 1100M polytrack,2on HR79.17, 1 on HR77.17 and 5 on HR75.5. On SF 6 has a SF of 1:11.04 extrapolated from 1100M polytrack while 2 is on 1:12.23.The other interesting HRs are 3 at 1:11.85, 4 at 1:11.53 extrapolated from 1100M ,5 at SF 1:12.52 , 8 at SF 1:11.41 and 9 at 1:11.74.
I am taking a slight risk by making 6 a special X 2 bet despite having only a 50% chance and I could have played it safe by making the favourite 2 as my 1st pick but I am not taking the easy way out by playing it safe. In reality I suggest Dutch betting on both horses and using both 6 and 2 as joint bankers on the 1st line in any exotic bet and put a big bet on both the forecast / place forecast with a cover forecast/place forecast on 6-8 in case 8 gets a soft cushy lead without being pushed. Lately favourites have been falling like 9 pins in the top race of the day…let’s see if this trend continues. With 2 horses in the field 2 may not be Burridge’s main focus to win and 8 might run a cheeky race and sneak a win if left unchallenged upfront. Likewise Williams stablemate has been hogging the spotlight this week with eye-catching track workouts but I suspect 4 is better suited for the shorter 1000M as he is by the short sprint specialist sire Fasliyev and good ole’ Laxon being a Master Handicapper is directing the spotlight on Break Free for a generous healthy dividend on Williams and I strongly believe Williams and not Break Free will be the wily Laxon’s main play unless Black Ice gets the greenlight ahead of Williams. Wallinger is by the same Group 1 winning sire Sharmadal as last week’s winner Gingerbread Man but the handicap is not in his favour this time despite winning last time out(form obviously in good order).
In order my selections are 6-2-8-4-5-10-3. I suggest using 2 bankers 6 and 2 on the 1st line and if you have a limited budget use 6-2-8-4 on the 2nd line with the remainder on the 3rd and 4th lines. If 6 wins expect a bonanza payout and if 10 makes the top 4 be prepared for an extravagant payday! I 've got a shoo-in on Sunday belonging to the female species and as most chauvanistic male racegoers are biased against the weaker sex I do expect a dividend of at least $15 on the win line! Good Luck!
Singapore Nap Selection: number 6 Williams X 2
Next Singapore Nap: 10th April 2011
Supplied by Patrick Khoo in Singapore
Time Nap posted: 05:45am, 8th April 2011 (Hong Kong time)
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Principles: Singapore Nap is a weekly recommended 1pt win bet or bets chosen in a principal race held in Singapore. Naps are usually posted on Friday evening or Saturday morning, Hong Kong time.
Singapore Nap is chosen by Patrick Khoo, who is based in Singapore and was the Chief Editor for the publication "Insiders111" under the pen name "Iizi".
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This page last updated on 8 Apr 2011
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