STARSTATZ RACING 24 APRIL 2011- replica of singapore nap

This is a replica of my post on Singapore Nap which is on www.7naps.com(HKG tips are very profitable) and will not count in my starstatz tally. Hope to post within the next 2 weeks.

My track watch report has confirmed 1 as the most in-from though not rated a special because of the wide barrier drawn(effectively 9). He has also reaffirmed my opinion on my top 3 picks. Since 13 is a race scratching I have now bumped 5 into 4th pick based on my track watch imput. My revised selection in order of merit are 1-2-4-5-3-9-10. The way to go for the exotics is to concentrate on the small numbers for the exotics but 9 and 10 among the unbeaten lot may have the mettle to upset my calculations and appear in the top 4 but I do believe these newbies to the 3YO Challenge do not have what it takes and Gingerbread man will make toast out of them for breakfast(1st leg) , lunch (2nd leg ) and dinner (3rd leg).
it remains to be seen if the wide draw has serious ramifications for him or if my confidence in him not only to win but to win with a bigger margin. The fans of Simply The Best (slowly away and blocked for a run) and Excavator (took the turn wide ) and Gingerbread Man winning narrowly by a head have valid reasons for expecting an upset but I firmly believe 1200M was his weakest leg (entree) and that today's 1400M (appetizer) is just a prelude to his finale(main dish) over 1600M which should be a shoo-in unless a brand new talent crops up. Beyond that I believe he has the class and talent and has the measure of this field.
Subject: Singapore Nap 24 April 2011



Singapore Nap
24 Apr 2011

Gingerbread Man (x2)





RACE 10 SINGAPORE 3 YO CLASSIC 2011-SINGAPORE GROUP 2

1400M SHORT COURSE E

STAKES $350,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

With 6 placings in the last 6 outings Singapore Nap has dropped to 9th in the Winner 21 Strike Rate Challenge with 8 wins/12 placings from 32 selections for a strike rate of 25%. Starstatz Racing is still in the lead by default with the best strike rate of 19 wins from 64 selections at 29.69% . .In my post I managed to score on the forecast/ place forecast tierce quartet and Quadro. In my late mail to my mailing list I did even better and scored a direct tierce as I recommended a 60% play on Waikato and 40% cover bet on Mr Raffles. The payouts were $14 for a win and as I had predicted a value dividend of $14 for the placing for Mr Raffles as well. The confident forecast paid out twice on my recommend big bet on 8#1-9 and 1#8-9 for $14 forecast and $8 ,$3 and $5 for the place forecast. From an investment of $72 with 3 key horses ( and 3 other horses ) on the 1st and 2nd line we hit the Quartet of $564 and for $24 we hit the quadro of $52 as well. I am glad Senor Laxon brought up the point that Waikato was a young 7yo since he was foaled in December. This data I believe is missing from all the race books and will prove quite useful to serious horse investors. The 2nd point is that the horse is the 1st 2nd or 3rd foal by the dam in question as 1st foals are usually more talented than the latter foals. I would strongly recommend that the race books introduce this feature in future publications.(Tongue in cheek …maybe if Racing Guide introduces it 1st they can then sue Punters Way for copying them when Punters Way introduces it later…I hope you enjoy my parody of twisted humour). Next week I shall do a review on STC ‘s offering of a brochure on Quadro betting and its skeletal facts that are so basic you wonder why the bother to produce the brochure at all…as a must do for the sake of doing it measure? I wonder?

I am still taking a break (for another week at least) on my blog on www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com as I am preparing the legwork for my re-entry into Travel Agency operations complete with a Premium Concierge Service for CIP passengers and will also include Singapore’s 1st travel agency franchise if the project takes off!

OVERVIEW

This race was supposed to be a shoo-in as I had predicted (one of the few internet/print media tipsters who did so in the 1st leg) that if he won the 1st leg his chances are even better for the subsequent legs and the only damper to fulfilling that quest is his wide barrier(barrier 9) draw today. Based on previous records where he was blocked for a clear run I believe Simply The Best is his most serious threat and the rest of the hyped market contenders (albeit unbeaten …are just rising upstarts and wannabes…it remains to be seen if my assessment is on target). The pace will be fast with 4 front runners 4-3-8-10 jostling for the lead but Excavator will get the rails run and prevent them from getting to the rails which should ensure he finishes in the money.

1 has a significant 2.5 HR advantage over 2 and after taking into account the 1.5 lengths adjustment he should still have a length to spare and I predict his margin of victory will be even bigger than his last win as his bloodstock points to his forte over the longer distances through Sharmadal and Giant Causeway …the 1st mate for Melbourne Cup Winner Maykbe Diva.On speed figures his projected figure with a win over the classy Black Ice puts him at 1:22.54 and his closest rival on SF(extrapolated from 1200M) is Clear For Action who is drawn outside him by 2 stalls who is at 1:22.88 while 2 has 1:23.25 …3 has 1:23.71 and 4 has 1:23.16, 5 has 1:23.71(actual), 6 has 1:23.45 , 10 has 1:23.59 (actual) and 12 has 1:23.52 (most of them extrapolated from 1200M. The rest are even much slower and worse off than 1:24.0. which makes their task even harder.

If you want to be cautious put 2 as the other banker I would put my main bet on 1 as banker and only a small cover on 2 as the joint banker.. In order my selections are 1-2-4-3-9-10-139(add 5 if 13 is a non starter. The media hype that this is a wide open affair tickles me and should benefit and reward our readers despite him being a favourite. I would expect a value for money dividend of $12 to $15 and anything else including a high dividend for place would be a welcome bonus.. If his weight is within his old range bet even bigger if he looses the favourite tag as he has an even more impressive record of winning 2 races from two 2nd up starts. Do a big forecast /place forecast on 1#2 and put the remaining horses in the other lines. I should break my place streak with a length to spare as despite excuses by the other horses Ginger Man will make toast of the rest of the field with only Simply The Best anywhere near him.

Singapore Nap Selection : number 1 GINGERBREAD MAN X 2