STARSTATZ RACING 10 APRIL 2011 replica of Singapore Nap posting

Singapore Nap
THIS IS A REPRODUCTION OF MY BLOG ON 7NAPS.COM AND WILL NOT COUNT IN MY TALLY ON STARSTATZ RACING

10 Apr 2011
New Rose Wood (x2)





RACE 10 JBBA(JAPAN BREEDERS BLOODSTOCK ASSOCIATION OR IS IT AGENCY ?) MOONBEAM VASE- GROUP 3

1800M LONG COURSE B

STAKES $200,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

My bravado pick of Williams on Singapore Nap did not pan out. On my Starstatz Racing blog I corrected the advice I gave (after receiving the trackwatch report to go for a 70% to 80% big bet on Black Ice and a 20-30% cover bet on Williams. Those on my mailing list received my corrected advice before the start of Race 2 and managed a conolation payout of $%8 on the place forecast. This is a good example of how a late twitter service could improve on media tipsters who have to do their selection early and would definitely be worth waiting and paying for. A pundit who averages a 30% strike rate could easily improve to a 50% strike rate after checking the weight of horses, seeing the condition of the horses in the paddock and after getting a full trackwork report. As a point in fairness a race book like Racing Guide and Punters Way will have an disadvantage over Shin Min , Wan Bao and Victory Trail and they in turn will be disadvantaged when compared to the New Paper and finally blogs like Starstatz Racing where posting is done before the start of races but late mail(not early late mail given early before the start of Race 1 will have a distinct disadvantage when compared to the pundit who tips 10 mins before the start of each race after viewing the condition of the horses in the paddock. A truly late twitter service will have a distinct advantage with access to more relevant up-to-date vital data.

My suggestion of the week for STC will give a leg-up for small budget racegoers! I brought it up last season but nothing has been done to date. STC and Singapore Pools should introduce the i-bet service currently in use in 4D betting by the Singapore Pools and the Tote Board. They could modify it and adopt the exact same system as the 4D i-bet or they could take a percentage of the full permutation bet in percentages of 10% increments from 10% to 90%. If the percentages end up with cents than I am sure the small budget player will not mine topping it up and pay to the highest dollar for the benefit od STC . Likewise the winning dividends can be downsized to the nearest dollar. Imagine if you had struck the i-bet quartet of $16,727 when Better Be the One won his first race. The full permutation bet would have cost $240 to have BBTO as a lone banker boxed with 6 horses on the 2nd/3rd and 4th lines. For a 10% bet. The investment would have been $24 and the win 10% payout would have been $1672. This is one of the exciting ways we can improve racing by creating more winners in the exotic bets eventually resulting in greate betting turnover and it is a win-win situation between the ordinary racegoer and STC. This should allow us to compete on better terms with the wiles of Ms Marina Bay and Ms Resorts World. With this feedback I hope the betting department introduce this sooner rather. It would not cause any concern if the minimum bet can be put at $10 or even $20.

At this point in time Starstatz Racing and Singapore Nap(from the 7Naps website) are the top 2 tipsters in terms of strike rate when compared to the leaders in the Winner21 Challenge

For the record Starstatz Racing has the best current strike rate with 19 wins from 64 races for a strike rate of 29.69% and Singapore Nap with 8 wins / 7 placings from races for a strike rate of 28.57 %. If New Rose Wood gets the Winner’s laurel then Singapore Nap will leapfrog into 1st place and edge out my other blog Starstatz Racing into 2nd place

I am taking a short break (for this week at least) on my blog on www.starstatzracing.blogspot.com

OVERVIEW

My belief that the Rose among the thorns is a shoo-in today is not shared by 50% of the media tipsters and horses like Parfumier , Jamal Malik, King Falcon (Straits Times advertorial in an article late in the week…which I believe will flop and not likely to make the top 4…very disappointing indeed…I hope I don’t get egg in the face for predicting his likely failure), South Easter. However horses like Thundering Jet and Tell A Tale are well handicapped but have been neglected and might spring a surprise to make the top 4 to make the dividends more appetizing!

The pace will be good to slow with front running trio of 4-5-12 leading the way with on pace runners 14-8-13-10-9-11-6 in close attendance and off pace runners 2-3-1-7 bringing up the tail end. Our selection NRW(New Rose Wood) is likely to get the box seat with a rails run tucked right behind the front running trio. Should any one from this trio be a late scratching it would make her task that much easier and emulate Jolie’s Shinju before her.

This race looks like it was meant for her to win it as if this was a normal handicap race she would have been made to carry 56kg but is instead carrying bottom weight of 50kg. El Dorado also has a handicap advantage but has been in poor form for his last 4 runs and has not done well since 16 Feb 2010 and looks in lacklustre form. In long distance races like today SF and timings are a very minor factor and I won’t even bother to do the calculation. Bloodstock analysis will come into it but with most of the contenders having experience at this race distance this factor will be less of a vital factor than HR(handicap ratings) which points to 14 as a shoo-in with her 12 placings a minor cause of concern compared to her 4 wins from 21 starts. Relatively unfashionable Sivan would make her an attractive propostion with an expected dividend of at least $15 even if she retains 1st favouritism . Sivan is a less glamourous name when compared to Powell, Duric,Vorster, Verenzuela, Cunha and Moreira but I strongly believe the NRW will charm the boys into submission. I have a suggestion for Craig Evans and Matthew Jones especially if they fancy NRW’s chances…play the song Cracklin” Rosie by Neil Diamond.

The respective HR’s are :-

14) 104.3 (1800M poly) and 101.2 (2000M turf)…will be an even better bet if weight increases further by approximately 5 kg

2) 101.1 (2000M turf)…in poor form last 4 runs…last good run was on 16 Feb 2010

9) 100.5…won Group 3…the main threat and looks in good form despite being neglected by the media tipsters

3) 98.5 (2000M turf)…Won Group 1 turf at 1600M and placed 5 times at Group 1 level over distance races up to 2400M…has miler pedigree through sire Tale of the Cat and comfortable at 1800M distance but has staying blood through Damsire Sir Tristram…classy dark horse but inferior HR compared to 14 and 9. Ignore him at your own peril as easily the horse with the best past credentials but has not shown it consistently since arriving and is a doubt.

5) 95.63 (1600M poly)…has won on 1600M turf and won on 1800M poly

1) 94.87 (1600M poly)…can handle turf due wins at 1900M turf and Group 2 placed

8) 92 (1900M poly)…best staying Sire in this race Gallileo is the first Sire Maykabe Diva (Melbourne Cup Winner) has been mated with…classy on breeding

13) 91.3 (2000M turf)

7) 91 (1900M poly)…AWT type

4) 90 (1800M poly)

6) 89 (1700M poly) but has won at 1800M turf.

11) 88.63 (1700M poly)

10) 83.2 …very very unlikely

12) 79.5 (1800M poly)…no hoper…what is he doing in this race at all

I fancy at least one of the 2 horses from 9 and 3 to upset and make it into the top 4 while 1 despite the top impost looks a good and safe chance to make the top 4 and likely to be in the top 3 despite in theory being long in the tooth at 8 years of age but his performances (belies his age) since arriving into Singapore have been very zestful and inspiring.

In order my selections are 14-9-1-3-8-5-2(if you don’t fancy the form of 2 I suggest replacing him with 2 but my best advice is to ignore and leave both out of the reckoning. I suggest a big bet as she would be very safe for a place and should lead the boys on a merry dance of the pace remains slow.



Singapore Nap Selection: number 14 NEW ROSE WOOD X 2



Next Singapore Nap: 15th April 2011

Supplied by Patrick Khoo in Singapore

Time Nap posted: 05:45am, 10th April 2011 (Hong Kong time)









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Principles: Singapore Nap is a weekly recommended 1pt win bet or bets chosen in a principal race held in Singapore. Naps are usually posted on Friday evening or Saturday morning, Hong Kong time.

Singapore Nap is chosen by Patrick Khoo, who is based in Singapore and was the Chief Editor for the publication "Insiders111" under the pen name "Iizi".

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This page last updated on 10 Apr 2011