El Milagro ( X 2 )
Race 8 Open B97
1200M Polytrack
Stakes $95,000
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Singapore Nap's tip against Mr Big went up in smoke when Mr Big managed to crossover and get the rails runs.....what was supposed to be a frentic and fast pace turned out otherwise and with a soft lead had plenty of petrol left in the tank when challenged in the home straight.
On the Media Tipster Challenge Singapore Nap on a different format is leading with 48.1% with 38 wins/17 placings from 79 selections. Andrew Frost bounced back with a vengeance and did a top of the table performance with 7 wins on 23 September and Racing Guide and Hui Liang bagged 6 winners while Starstatz Racing did a credible 5 wins with another direct quartet bonus in Race 2 with Devil's Cut, Fei Yue, Moova Bullet and Telescopic finished in the exact order ie the tierce of $19 and the quartet of $109 was achieved with a minimum bet of $2 each.....a reader emailed me his winning tickets where he struck 5 quartet and 10 tierce tickets with multiple bets of $2 each (when I can get hold of a scanner I will try to post it for reference as proof of this achievement and proof that people are listening to this relatively unknown blogger in racing. This is at least my 3rd direct quartet of the season! It reflects the relative strength of my handicap system in putting Fei Yue(experienced over race distance) ahead of Moova Bullet when the market considered Moova Bullet. For Telescopic an unknown newcomer can be attributed to the good work by my in-house track watcher. Of course the final factor was plain "Lady Luck"
On the full card challenge Andrew Frost has shown he is not a spent force and it will be difficult to overcome a 10 cushion lead but we now have have Winner 21 within our crosshairs and Racing Guide with the efferverscent and indomnitable 2010 Champion Media Tipster Steve Levar will not throw in the towel until the Fat Lady sings in December and let's hope the issue is still not settled mathematically on the last day culminating in a photo finish on the final day. Andrew is looking to score a double while I (unofficial top Internet/Print Media Tipster for season 2009 with all emails sent to Senior Management of STC and Press Corp with a copy of my email sent to one representative from each participating publication) will be striving hard to compete and hopefully keep my proud record of being in the the top 2 for strike rates for the past 3 seasongap can be closed. It would pay to follow Andrew Frost, Starstatz Racing and Racing Guide but you would have to subscribe to the Winner21 SMS service to view their selections!
Andrew Frost is sitting proudly in the lead with 246 wnners from a maximum of 751 selections for a 32.76% WIth all the fierce competition the winner may have to surpass 33% to be fully assured of being Champion for this year or close to it!. Winner 21 is close behing with 244 wins (32.49%) and Starstatz Racing and Racing Guide are jointly tied on 236 wins for a 31.42% and Brian Miller at 230 wins (30.63%) and Hui Liang at 223 wins(30.23%) are the best of the rest aabove the 30% benchmark to make the top 6.
Today I shall be doing the full handicap data for the top 7 picks to illustrate the strength of the system based on 3 fndamentals....Handicap Ratings(HR).....Speed Figures(SF) and sectional times(a superior handicapping tool but not a stand alone tool).
PREVIEW OF RACE
This will be a battle royale between 3 candidates and the best part is that the 3rd horse in this mix will bring value to the forecast/place forecast dividends. The 3 protagonists are Goal Keeper (1st favourite with justification despite wide barrier draw), El Milagro (2nd favourite with the Moreira factor making it a strong candidate and Grand Arrival(relatively under the radar). The 3rd favourite Cash Dot Com is my 5th pick and an each way chance for placing while Excavator is a wild one and I expect him to run unplaced with a weak HR. Goal Keeper has the early gatespeed to jump 2nd but Beasley will be wise to relax the horse in an on pace position and with luck sit 2 wide off the rails in this race where the pace is expected to be fast and furious with Cash Dot Com leading from 4 other fronts. Newcomer Winner 21 will be looking to gatecrash this elite party of past Champions but we shall see if the gap can be closed. It would pay to follow Andrew Frost, Starstatz Racing and Racing Guide but you would have to subscribe to the Winner21 SMS service to view their selections!
Andrew Frost is sitting proudly in the lead with 246 wnners from a maximum of 751 selections for a 32.76% WIth all the fierce competition the winner may have to surpass 33% to be fully assured of being Champion for this year or close to it!. Winner 21 is close behing with 244 wins (32.49%) and Starstatz Racing and Racing Guide are jointly tied on 236 wins for a 31.42% and Brian Miller at 230 wins (30.63%) and Hui Liang at 223 wins(30.23%) are the best of the rest aabove the 30% benchmark to make the top 6.
Today I shall be doing the full handicap data for the top 7 picks to illustrate the strength of the system based on 3 fndamentals....Handicap Ratings(HR).....Speed Figures(SF) and sectional times(a superior handicapping tool but not a stand alone tool).
PREVIEW OF RACE
This will be a battle royale between 3 candidates and the best part is that the 3rd horse in this mix will bring value to the forecast/place forecast dividends. The 3 protagonists are Goal Keeper (1st favourite with justification despite wide barrier draw), El Milagro (2nd favourite with the Moreira factor making it a strong candidate and Grand Arrival(relatively under the radar). The 3rd favourite Cash Dot Com is my 5th pick and an each way chance for placing while Excavator is a wild one and I expect him to run unplaced with a weak HR. Goal Keeper has the early gatespeed to jump 2nd but Beasley will be wise to relax the horse in an on pace position and with luck sit 2 wide off the rails in this race where the pace is expected to be fast and furious with Cash Dot Com leading from 4 other front running types. However my in house track watcher indicates that Goal Keeper 's form is not as strong as El Milagro. El Milagro has drawn well and should get the box seat behind the fast pace that will be slower with My Son ( a speed influence) now withdrawn .
In order my selections are. 8-3-5/9-7-10-2.....and I recommend a big 3*** win/place bet on El Milargro . Main forecast /place forecast bet should be 8#3-5 .Also put a smaller box bet on 3#8#5 as cover for forecast/place forecast and Use 8 as the sole banker and 3-5 as key horses on the 2nd line and as a cover you can put 3-5 on the 1st line and 8 on the 2nd line. In the remaining 3rd and 4th lines add
9-7-10-2 to the original two of 3 and 5.
HANDICAP DATA
2) RED BEARD ...HR 85.67....SF 1:11.953.....SECTIONALS AT 1100M ONLY 23.822/23.688 (1200M EXTRAPOLATION AT APPROXIMATELY 49.071....CLASSY TYPE BUT POOR HR FIGURES
3) GOALKEEPER: HR92.17.....SF 1:11.303...SECT. TIMES 23.492/22.132= 45.624....strike rate of 6 from 11 starts(54.55% shows his class).....has par excellent fresh 1st up start record of 3 wins/1 place for 5 1st up starts despite 110 days away from races.....He has a devastating turn of foot in the last 400M and you can queue up and collect your as he ranges alongside any race leader in the last 300M....check his body weight before betting. His early gatespeed will enable Beasley to pick his spot and find cover wide off the rails before easing the horse behind the hot pace. His closing 400M sectionals are awesome a good 1.326 seconds better than El Milagro! The horse to beat with the wide draw the only negative factor! Track reports indicate he is not as sharp as 8. The other moot point is that his 1st up wins were after short breaks while this time the break is 110 days and according to track reports he has lost some of lustre and sparkling form.
5) Grand Arrival: HR 94.16(superior handicap to both 3 and 8)....SF1:10.7(superior SF to Goalkeeper but weak sectionals will be his achilles heel in winning but good value bet to play place only) SECT TIMES....24.913/22.913= 47.826....strong place chances with value. 3rd best sectionals
7) CASH DOT COM: HR 96.16.....SF1:10.692(BEST SF but weak sectionals hides a weak underbelly) .....SECT TIMES: 24.222/23.882= 48.104....5th best sectionals
8) EL MILAGRO: HR 93.5....SF 1:11.115....SECT TIMES 24.328/23.458= 47.786....has better sectionals than 5 but weaker than 3....has class with 6 wins from 12 races...a 50% strike rate....has 2nd best sectionals in race.....Smartest track work shown in this race...the star for others to beat!
9) MASTHEAD: HR 96.16(extrapolated from 1400M on yielding turf track)....SF1:11.97(extrapolated from 1100M poly win).....SECT TIMES....25.853/23.836=48.836
also has best 1100M sectionals at 24.146/22.569=46.715 (estimated to be approx 48.276 at 1200M....please ensure do not compare 1100M sectionals and 1200M sectionals directly. Has disappointed and generally flattered to deceive despite impressive Australian record....but will now improve after being gelded(remember Sebastian!)....the only concern is that he did impressive trials with blinkers and he is not wearing them on race day is a slight concern on his intentions.
10) NICEONE: HR 94.16...SF 1:11.227....SECT TIMES 23.512/24.622=48.134....6th best sectional times. Impressive win strike rate of 5 wins from 9 races ie best win strike rate of 55.55%....weak sectionals will be his undoing....long shot for 3rd/4th quartet spots
Singapore Nap selects: number 8 El Milagro ( X 2 )
Next Singapore Nap 30 September 2012
Supplied in Singapore by Patrick Khoo
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