Singapore Nap 02 September 2012
Super Easy ( X2)
Race 10 Jumbo Jet Trophy - Singapore Group 3
1400M Short Course B
Stakes $200,000
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
After a lacklustre month in August both Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing bounced back with eye-catching performances. Singapore managed to tip Mr Raffles (paid a value dividend of $39/$15) in a wide open race when the favourites did not have all the ticks in the right boxes.It was an indication of the value of using sectional times and vindication of its usage in modern handicapping despite the fact that Mr Raffles did not have the best Handicap Ratings or speed figures but he was drawn well and had high figures(although not the best) to justify his selection although I stated clearly I was not confident on the outcome of the race. sectional times is not a stand alone tool and has to be used in close tandem with other factors . Startstatz Racing joined the celebrations and probably did a top of the table performance with 3 winners when all the popular leading tipsters had a quiet outing.As a bonus for our readers we also scored a direct quartet in Race 4 when Huka Falls won followed by Mascot Prince , Dragon Commander and Cheetah in the exact order. The forecast paid $9.....tierce $39 and the quartet a value for money return at $198. To put it in perspective it is like striking a $495 longshot for a $5 outlay on a win ticket....or odds of 99 to 1.Of course luck played a major part when Dragon Commander managed to pip Cheetah for 3rd place .Even if you had spent more by using Huka Falls as a lone banker and box the rest ie 5 #6-4-3 the tierce investment would have cost a mere $12 and the quartet $24. for value returns! In Restricted Maiden races when there is not much information on past performances....then pedigree analysis comes into play and that is something I learnt from my Guru ie which website or book to get more detailed information than what is available on offer through the Media which is sometimes lacking either due to space constraints or the unwillingness to go the extra mile in providing handicap data relevant to the outcome of the race for its readers. This is by no means the 1st time we have hit the equivalent of the golf "hole in one " for this year but it looks like I can't beat my record of 7 in one season ranging form $19 to slightly below $400 in season 2000!
The tally on Singapore Nap for the strike rate challenge is now on 35 wins /16 placings from 72 selections for a 48.61% strike rate and Startstatz is struggling for 3rd or 4th place with Racing Guide on 206 wins from 679 races to be on 30.33% in the full card challenge. As I have stated in my earlier posts I am still using 50% as my benchmark target for Singapore Nap and 30% for Starstatz Racing. Unfortunately my selection on Mr Raffles is not counted in my official blog tally as I missed the posting dateline.
When we celebrate this race let us not forget the indomnitable owner of the original JUMBO JET(the horse not the aircraft) Mr Yap who is smiling at us from Heaven. Perhaps to commerate this event in future his children should be invited to grace the occasion and give away the Prizes.
PREVIEW OF RACE
On pure handicap ratings analysis this is by no means a shoo-in routine race for Super Easy to overcome but his class and his superior sectiionals indicate there should be no cause for concern unless the going turns to soft ( chances downgraded but a win should still be in order). The pace will be very fast with 10-9-5-8-1 going forward as front runners going for the rails run and should suit on pace runners like Super Easy and Ato and to a lesser extent Red Beard who is drawn favourably in barrier one and he should take the box seat behind the leaders but next to the rails.
Let' s examine the credentials of the 3 main contenders:-
1) Captain Obvious....HR 118.7....SF 1:22.31....sectionals 47.156....mudlark specialist and will give Super Easy a fright( but nt enough to beat him) if it rains heavily. If the going is yielding Super Easy will still scoot home comfortably.....has best HR/SF but the weak sectionals expose an achilles heel when compared to Super Easy!
2) Ato ( i rate him the most improved horse this year!) ....HR115.1 ....SF 1:23.233 (extrapolated from 1600M) and sectionals at 47.994....has Class and superior sectionals to Ato and will give some worries to Super Easy if it rains as he showed his new found zest in the Singapore Airlines Kris Flyer Sprint
12) Super Easy HR 111.7...SF 1:23.136 Yielding....sectionals on yielding 47.275Y.....if we extrapolate Super Easy SF could hit 1:21.736 when pushed and sectionals easily at 46.857 on good going. The best moot point is that he won most of his races unextended and winning this race means he has the quality to travel to HKG and give them a run for their money(he may not be able to match the expolits of our erstwhile Champion but he will do Singapore proud and the frightening but the exciting part is that he has a distant relative running tomorrow who if expectations are right will be a Super Easy Mark II in the form of super Shadow by the same sire as Darci Bharma and the Gold Brose nick . The interesting part is that Super Shadow's Dam is more classy than Super Easy' dam. Horses like Huka Falls (he won in a canter on Friday) , Super Shadow (future star in the making) and to a lesser extent Ronnie Brown are signs that auger well for the progress in the improving quality of horses in Singapore. Do visit the Turf Club and enjoy yourself playing the exotics with these winners.
I recommend a big bet on win only on Super Easy and with likely support for Ato and Captain Obvious i have a quiet confidence he will pay $6 or more. In order my selections are 12-2-1/8-6-4-5. Do a big bet on forecast /place forecast 12#2-1 and use both of them as key horses on the 2nd line and 12 as the lone banker. Use 2-1-8-6-4-5 on the 3rd and 4th lines. Try multiple tickets on 12#2-1 for tierce as well. The 4th spot is tricky and who knows one of them can still run 3rd. so I suggest to bet on these guidelines.
Singapore Nap selects : number 12 Super Easy ( X 2)
Next Singapore Nap 07 september 2012
Supplied in Singapore by Patrick Khoo
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