STARSTATZ RACING AND 5 OTHER PICKS FOR RACE 9 ONLY - 01 JANUARY 2013

01 January 2013
Race 9 New Year Cup

1900M Polytrack
Stakes $200,000
PICKS BY 6   MEMBER MONICKER PANEL
SINGAPORE NAP : **DUJARDIN
STARSTATZ RACING : **DUJARDIN
IIZI (2ND PICK OF STARSTATZ  RACING) : **FLYING FULTON
TW (TRACKWATCHER'S FORM PICK) :**FLYING FULTON ....form in order 1-6-2-7
VB (VALUE BET OF THE RACE AS SELECTED BY STARSTAT RACING) : *MAURICE UTRILLO
LS (LONGSHOT OF THE RACE AS PICKED BY STARSTATZ RACING ) :  * LIZARRE

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Starstatz Racing will discontinue the full card challenge but if there is sponsor interest from organisations like Starhub we make make this one race sample available for the full card on a paid basis with a $2 a month charge exclusive for Starhub Channel 288 subscribers if the demand is overwhelming ....so do drop us an email and indicate your support and we will bring it to the attention of Starhub Senior Executives as feedback to consider launching this Pilot service exclusive at this price for Channel 288 subscribers! Do give us your support if you find the information useful!

Singapore Nap had an amazing season with 48 wins/26 placings from 102 selections to record the best strike rate of 47.06% of the season albeit on a different format.

 To redress this imbalance I shall be launching my own competition which I shall call
 "BIG RACE CHALLENGE" (unlike Winner21 Challenge ....all tipsters with a public personna will be invited and those who like to be invited do drop me an email listing your credentials but for space reasons the final decision will rest with the editor of this blog.) in reference to the top class race of each race day. tabulating all the media Tipsters on an equal basis by comparing the top race of the day and for today it is Race 9 and let's see if I can maintain my form in tipping winners in the Cup races including value bets like Mr Raffles and horses like Chase Me in the Derby Keep Away in the Committee Cup like keep Away and Better Life in the Gold Cup. I reckon I should be a safe bet for the Top 5 and a good bet for the Top 3 where Singapore Nap or Starstatz Racing is concerned. I shall also submit 4 new entries(besides Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing ) with monickers IIZI (essentially Starstatz Racing 's 2nd pick of the day). TW (trackwatcher's form pick of the race) VB (essentially Starstatz Racing"s value bet of the race) and LS (Starstatz Racing 's longshot of the day). Frankly I dont expect VB and LS to do well in the tally count but let's see if we will run last. I hope to track VB place bets only to see if we can make money on this type of bet only and for LS to see the long run of misses can be compensated by the win/place dividends to make up for the run of losses. It will be mathematically unlikely that all the 6 entries will remain in the top half of the table and even if VB and LS are in the bottom half let;s see if their returns offer any value. Some tipsters who are not in the top half of the table are constantly looking for the next longshot but I suggest that this is not a good strategy for every single race and it would be better to judge races individually and have the courage to backvalue bets and longshots when appropriate. However I do expect the rest to be in the top half of the table although I forsee it will be tough for IIZI to remain in the top half if  Starstatz Racing figures in the top 3 as expected . There will be overlap of selections in some cases as in the case of IIZI and TW today. Starstatz Racing selections are done on a one-man-show basis while working full-time. I intend to showcase it as a iconic showpiece what the racing industry is missing when the figures of hnadicap Ratings(HR) , Speed Figure (SF) , sectional times and a general speed map to see the effectiveness of these handicapping tools in the analysis of races. For example in today's race number 4 Lizarre who appers to be in doubtful form by the trackwatch reports will be a serious threat if he has  drop in weight as he has the best HR/SF and sectional times in the race despite the TW report putting 1 as 1st pick the HR is in favour of 6 today but racing is not a science so the final decision lies with the racegoer(not the tipster as he will not know last minute conditions like body weight of horse, condition in paddock, weather conditions and last minute scratchings affecting the pace of the race but I hope to make it easier by providing expertly compiled data adjusted to the weight to the horse is carrying on race day but I still think the best Media Tipster will be a true Late Mail Service where tips are selected and announced after horses move out from the paddock which I have shown for Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing for the past 4 seasons in the 30% to 33% strike rate range but I shall not include last season's performance by Singapore Nap which I consider an anomaly hard to be repeated(just like Moreira's record number of winners for a season) but I shall still try and see if I can break the 50% benchmark figure for this season.
Unlike Winner 21 Challenge who have declined my entry I shall invite Racing Guide , Turf Guide, HS Chan (blogger) for this "BIG RACE CHALLENGE" Do drop me an email if you want to be included and send entries before the start of Race 1 to insiders111@yahoo.com.sg
Winner21 have replied to my request to join the full card challenge with a whimsical(rules are set at their whim and fancy when clearly my standing as an ex-Chief Editor of MDA approved Racing Publication called Insiders Iizi Info- Guide is similar to Kranji Racing's Larry Foley but they chose to put in a rule that they must be nominated. I challenge Winner21 to actually produce the "paperwork for nomination " by the Newpaper or is all this verbal heresay. This state of affairs should not allowed to continue to fester where clearly there is a conflict of interest when a top Racing Publication like Racing Guide under the new Owners has not been invited (especially when there is a pending settlement of a lawsuit payment of approximately $1 million . I knoew the histrory under old Management under Times Publishing where invitation was declined. Surely a competition of this nature and the tabulation of scores should be handled by the STC Team with no biasness regarding invitations(never mind if I am still not invited). If  Winner21 had replied with a ridiculous answer like only invitations before the year 2000 are accepted or Internet Media Tipsters above 60 years old are barred I brook this question ....what is the difference between a nomination and no nomination, If the company still exists will they accept the nomination or will they set a new rule that the Racing Publication must still be active even if i was nominated. To make it a meaningful challenge I suggest STC renew an invitation to mainstream publications like Racing Guide  and Turf Guide( who were on STC's website previously) and never mind if Starstatz racing and HS Chan are not invited (I think we can live with it).

Here is the full text of winner21 's ridiculous reply and I challenge them to send me a copy of the official nomination by the Newpaper. Perhaps I should drop an email to Tan Thean Loon to expose this anomaly!
I hope Winner21 responds and gives me a reply. My response to the Winner21 reply is that if Larry Foley is in so should I after all we were both in the Top 6 last season and our insights on horse racing can only be good for the image of racing as credible Media Tipsters (or would you rather look at Media Tipsters from a Publication where most of the Tipsters bar one are in the bottom half of the table) .My prediction for this year in this BIG RACE CHALLENGE is that Andrew Frost , Racing Guide , Singapore Nap, Starstatz Racing and Winner 21 will fill the trio spots for this year but I will resrve a special cheer in my heart for Brian Miller, Larry Foley , Tan Thean Loon and Hui Liang and even Joleen to join us and make it a good , fun and exciting race as a sideshow event away from the stresses of the full card Challenge
"Dear Patrick,

Thank you for your support and your interest in being part of the Media Tipster Panel.
After much discussion with the team, we would be still keeping to the original principle, i.e. the tipster would be a member of the press/media when he first joined the tipster panel. And we would only allow new entries based on nomination from the media.
Truly we are very appreciative of your support and the ideas about the sectional time too. We look forward to your continued support
Thank You
The Support Team "
By the way I have given advice that the sectional times for each race to be the 1st 400M and the last 400M of each race so can any member of the public explain to me how to use Punters Way's opening sectonal times at 300M, 500M 700M,800M , 900M and an even more ridiculous 1100M for today's Race 9 has helped them in picking out winners
In the season  just ended Andrew Frost won the Internet/Print Media Challenge with a consistent and outstanding performance with a record breaking 318 wins from 993 selections for an impressive 32.02% strike rate with Racing Guide as I had predicted in the last Quarter that they would pip Winner21 for the coveted 2nd spot with a repsectable score of 314 wins for a strike rate of 31.62% and Winner21 in 3rd with 312 wins for a 31.42% strike rate. Brian Miller was the most improved performer of the season with expert coaching (just like Theo Walcott being coached or given tips by Thierry Henry) while Starstatz Racing dropped to 5th spot (beset by family health problems to be given top priority and work commitments) with 299 wins for a decent 30.11% strike rate and Larry Foley was the best of the rest who missed the 30% benchmark with 291 wins for a 29.31% strike rate!




PREVIEW OF RACE

The pace will be slow with Goodpack getting the rails run with Ready To Strike alongside him in 2nd spot at least for the 1st 400M.on pace runners 8-6-1 will put some pressure but 7 will dictate the pace. For my HKG friends who like longshots bets I recommend Lizarre who has the best handicap and speed figure and best sectinal times but he appears to be not at his best where form is concerned so a token bet will suffice unless his weight drops slightly further. Lizarre actually has a HR of 117.35 while 2 has a HR of 114.83 but the figure was based on 1800M in soft going on turf while my pick named after French Oscar winner Jean Dujardin in the film "the Artist" With a 2 kg adjustment and the extra 300M Dujardin with HR 109.43 might just upset the applecart and topple the favourite Flying Fulton at HR 107.21 .Goodpack has a poor
HR 104.15 but he can improve with superior SF and sectional times compared to 2 and with the slow pace to suit his front running style and I wont bet against hm dropping into 3rd spot.  I suggest a value medium each way bet on Dujardin with a big bet on forecast/ place forecast on a 3 way box on 6#1#2.

In order my selections are 6-1-2-7-4-8-3. I suggest a double banker on 6 and 1 on the 1st line as Flying Fulton can still win and for those on a budget  I suggest to put 6-1-2-7-4 on the 2nd and 3rd lines with the remainder on the 4th line. SECTIONAL TIMES NOT SO USEFUL TODAY AS WE HAVE THIS DATA FOR ONLY SOME HORSES

HANDICAP DATA
1) FLYING FULTON : FORM ***
HR 107.21 ( 1600M POLY ) SF 1:58.86....sectionals  25.909/23.42= 49.329...Likely 1st favourite and still the horse to beat
2) MAURICE UTRILLO : FORM ***
HR 114.83 (1800M ON TURF...SOFT GOING)....1:59.21.....sectionals (25.599...actual not available but this is time clocked by race leader so his actual is slower)/25.889 = (51.496) ...done in lower company so could improve. I am disappointed that STC have still not got their act together with the wrong sectionals displayed (showing Speedy Ahead instead)
3) BLACK ICE ; FORM *
 HR 117.18 (1800M POLY) .....SF  and sectionals not available...poor in last 3 runs
4) LIZARRE : FORM **
HR 117.35 ....SF 1:57.923....sectionals 25.51/23.729 = 49.239....poor in last 6 runs but training well...likely longshot if there is drop in weight as he has best HR/2ND BEST SF(I stand corrected) /BEST SECTIONALS
5) TENZING : FORM XXX (NO HOPER)
HR 106.65 (2000M ON TURF....YIELDING ....SF and sectionals not available
6) DUJARDIN : ***
HR 109.43 (1400M TURF ON YIELDING).....SF and sectionals not available....2kg for a head beaten difference and an extra 300M might just be enough for him to turn the tables on Flying Fulton  at good value
7) GOODPACK : FORM ***
HR 104.15....SF 1:57.568....sectionals 25.41/24.65 = 50.06...despite having best SF in race his weak HR and weak sectionals makes him vulnerable to be edged by 7 YO Maurice Utrillo for the 3rd spot.....his performance will show that SF is not the best handicapping tool to assess races but is an improver
8) THE RUDE WARRIOR : FORM  **
HR 103.43 (1800M POLY)....1:57.644...sectionals 25.359/ 24.46 = 49.819...low HR will make it tough despite fairly impressive sectionals...needs fast pace to do well to break into top 4 ...badly underscaled at 39kg if this was a true handicap race despite training well
9) READY TO STRIKE : FORM X (NOT LIKELY)
HR 107.71(1600M ON TURF)  ...SF and sectionals not available
10) KING FAALCON : FORM *
HR 108.64 ( 2000M TURF ) ....SF  and sectionals not available ( possible but unlikely spoiler for to 4 positions  to force a carry over quartet jackpot and has HR to match but reportedly in poor form...check body weight before deciding)