SINGAPORE RACING 20 JANUARY 2013 - STARSTATZ RACING + 4 OTHER MONICKER TIPSTERS

Singapore Racing

20 January 2013
Race 9 Woodlands Classic Stakes - Group 3
1800M Polytrack
Stakes $150,000

STARSTATZ RACING PICKS :** MAURICE UTRILLO
IIZ1 PICKS : NANDOWRA
TW (TRACKWATCHER ) PICKS : MAURICE UTRILLO .....FORM 3-1-2-4-6
VB (VALUE BET ) PICKS BLACK ICE
LS (LONGSHOT) : LIZARRE
BACKGROUND INFORMATION

In the Big Race Challenge LS((Longshot) is either in a joint lead or is the sole leader with 3 wins and one placing . Singapore Nap and Starstatz Racing are on identical score of 1 win and 3 placings from 6 selections for a 16.67% strike rate as Favourites continue to flop badly The human element played a part in Setitup's failure to win with a poor ride compounded by a slow start and by an unwise move by Santana to go 5 wide around the home turn which led to his defeat. There is nothing wrong with the class and a ability of the horse and he should recover his winning streak on his way to Class 1 eventually ( I expect it to be sooner rather than later) . The Stewards should review Santana's ride with a fine tooth comb and look for anything out of the ordinary and assess if a penalty is in order for Setitup's lacklustre jump from the gates which cost him the race. Sometimes races are lost due to poor form or the fact that some horses are better handicapped by the conditions of the race but I truly believe this was not the case on that day! . Let me make this bold prediction to justify my view point.... Setitup will eventually reach Class1 while Man of Substance has by comparison a lack of substance when compared to Setitup and I hope they meet one day soon and Setitup I believe will beat MOS easily even with the same weight disadvantage. I can only console myself that I did mention that MOS had the 2nd best sectionals in the race and that TW (Trackwarcher ) had spotted MOS as one of the top 4 in form horses but I downgraded his chances due to his wide draw. The lesson learnt is that if we have a reliable Trackwatcher it is better to pick from one of the horses in the form line up unless you are confident of your assessment of the longshot in that race.



PREVIEW OF RACE

The conditions of this race are heavily in favour of the top 4 rated horses( especially the top 3 horses) and I believe the quartet will come from 1-2-3-4 with 6 or 10 the most likely to break this stranglehold. Nandowra actually has the best HR of 95.82 ( done at 1600M turf) and the expected slow pace and the services of Moreira will suit him but this is offset by having the worst draw among the 3 top protagonists and the long straight will not suit him . Lizarre actually has a stronger HR than Maurice Utrillo of HR 95.62 compared to to 94.23. In the end I selected MU ( Maurice Utrillo ) because it was Vorster 's pick and the fact that the long straight and the best innermost draw compared to the main challengers. If it rains he also has the best 1800M SF in soft going to boost his winning chanaces. I suggest a medium each way bet on MU. For forecast/place forecast I suggest a big bet on 3#2#1.For exotic bets small budget try 3-2-1/3-1/3-2-1-/3-2-1-4 and for medium budget try 3-2-1/3-2-1/3-2-1-4-6-10/3-2-1-4-6-10. In order my selections are 3-2-1-4-6-10-5.

NO FULL HANDICAP DATA BUT I SHALL PROVIDE HR FIGURES FOR TOP 7 CONTENDERS
1)NANDOWRA : HR 95.82( EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1600M TURF)
2) LIZARRE ; HR 95.62
3) MAURICE UTRILLO : HR 94.23
4) BLACK ICE ; HR 91.93
5) TENZING :HR 89.71
6) DUJARDIN : HR 91.71
10) GOODPACK : HR 90.94