singapore racing 04 January 2013 Race 3 - starstatz racing and 5 other monickers

STARSTATZ RACING'S SELECTION PLUS 5 OTHER MONICKER SELECTIONS

04 January 2013
Race 3 OPEN B83
1200M Polytrack
Stakes $95,000

SINGAPORE NAP : *** HUKA FALLS  ( X 2 )...DUE COMPUTER GLITCH AND LATE POSTING MY SCORE WILL COUNT IN BIG RACE CHALLENGE FOR STRIKE RATE % BUT WILL NOT COUNT ON OFFICIAL BLOG TALLY UNLESS POSTED
STARSTATZ RACING : ***HUKA FALLS....SHOO-IN BET
IIZI; *** HUKA FALLS
TW :***HUKA FALLS.....TRACKFORM - 1-2-5-4
VB : ** TRUDEAU...LOOKING FOR PLACE DIVIDENDS AT VALUE
LS: ***HUKA FALLS (NOT WORTH GOING AGAINST THE FAVOURITE)

BACKGROUND INFORMATION
My experiment with 6 monicker TipsterS started off in an intriguing manner with LS (longshot) scoring with Lizarre at $33/$10 to share the limelight with Xu Fang of Shin Min who started the year as she ended with a top of the table performance with 5 wins including Lizarre while in the last day of the season she bagged 6 wins including longshots including value bet Kobe Top Gun and logshot Hang Tuah
Let me reiterate the format of the "BIG RACE CHALLENGE. Placings will come into play as a tie-breaker much like in the manner Laxon edged out Freedman on the last day of the last season!To determine winners of sub-category value bet specialist I shall calculate the number of winners at $30 and above. To determine who is the outsider specialist I will total the dividends of winners tipped aboat $30 and above only for the whole season and add up the tally.

PREVIEW OF RACE
HUKA FALLS IS PRACTICALLY A SHOO-IN FOR THIS RACE .
The market conssiders Bahen a good bet for 2nd spot.Despite his HR being better than Niceone and Trudeau he does have weaker SF and sectionals compared to both of them! I recommend a
medium bet on forecast and place forecast on 1#3-5 despite the fact that Bahen's handicap rating is superior .I expect the forecast dividend for Huka Falls and Bahen to be minimal taking into consideration that Huka Falls is likely to be an odds on favouriteThis is a funny old race with Sieze The Day and Emblssed having the Best handicap ratings but I truly believe that Sieze the Day is not classy enough to beat this field. Overall Huka Falls is an improver and has the best overall combination of HR/SF and sectionals.  I recommend Trudeau for the play on place only and he should make the top 4 quartet spot together with Niceone and Bahen while the dark horse for the coveted top 4 quartet spot is Emblessed because of his unique style of running his fastest sectional between the 800M to the 400M post. If we take his his 1st and 2nd sectionals he could actually have the fastest sectionals in this race! I rate Sieze the Day next with miler/stayer Gordon Roberts as a no hoper. In order my selection are thus 1-5-2-3-4-7. Despite my analysis I belive the permutations are too many and I suggest a cover bey on 1#5-2-3-4-7 for the tierce and quartet play. Do a big bet on Huka Falls to win only and a medium bet on place only for Trudeau. Last Tuesday my recommendation for my HKG friends resulted in  my tip on Lizarre winning but I expect Trudeau to give a good account of himself and run a place at good odds. He would surprise me too if he beats Huka Falls. Nevertheless my HKG friends would not like to bet on an odds on favourite like Huka Falls so I suggest they play win/place on Niceone instead which should pay more than the win dividends on Huka Falls winning, The pace will be good to fast with 3 front running types with 1-6-3 leading and Huka Falss shoild get the rails run but I see Emblessed hassling Huka Falls for the lead before the final turn. Niceone has a good 2nd up record winning twice from 2 1st up starts but has been poor in last 4 starts

HANDICAP DATA
1)HUKA FALLS...FORM***
HR76.6...SF 1:11.556....SECTIONALS ....24.572/23.642=48.214....CLASSY TYPE AND WILL GO UP THE GRADES TO CLASS ONE...SHOO-IN BET

2)BAHEN....FORM***
HR77.1....SF 1:12.05....SECTIONALS 24.99/23.68=48.67....LACKS EARLY SPEED TO BE IN THE FRAY BUT WILL BENEFIT IF THE PACE HOTS UP IF  BOTH NICEONE AND EMBLESSED HASSLE HUKA FALLS ALL THE WAY....CLASSY DAM WITH 10 WINS UNDER HER BELT BUT MAY PREFER LONGER

3)NICEONE ....FORM **
HR 75.9 ....SF 1:12.008....SECTIONALS24.09/23.74=47.83...GOOD 2ND UP 2ND UP RECORD OF 2 WINS FROM 2 RUNS. HIS SECTIONALS ARE SUPERIOR TO THE FAVOURITE BUT HR/SF ARE WEAKER...POOR IN LAST 4 RUNS....WILL TUSSLE WITH EMBLESSED FOR LAST QUARTET SPOT....HAS BETTER STRIKE RATE THAN EMBLESSED....VERY CONFIDENT OF A PLACE AT LEAST AND HIS PLACE ODDS MAY BE HIGHER THAN HUKA FALLS WIN ODDS!

4) EMBLESSED .....FORM **
HR 84.8 (OVER 1400M TURF)(HR 79.2 ON POLY) ....SF 1:11.61....SECTIONALS 24.49/24.5=48.99 (IMPRESSIVE IF YOU COMPUTE HIS 2ND SECTIONAL AND YOU WILL GET TOTAL SECTIONALS OF 47.38 BUT HARD TO ASSESS...DARK HORSE WITH A REPORTED RETURN TO FORM REPORT BY TRACKWATCHER

5)TRUDEAU....FORM ***
HR 76.9....SF 11.208....SECTIONALS 24.514/23.694= 48.208.....ACTUALLY HAS SUPERIOR HR/SF AND SECTIONALS COMPARED TO THE ODDS ON FAVOURITE....CAN COVER AS A LIVELY EACH WAY WIN/PLACE CHANCE AT VALUE ODDS....BUT HUKA FALLS HAS LOTS OF SCOPE FOR IMPROVEMENT....IF HE DOES NOT UPSET I FIGURE HE WILL MESS UP EVERYBODY'S TIERCE/QUARTE COMBINATIONS AND UPSET BAHEN FOR THE FORECAST SPOT AT THE LEAST.....SELECTION FOR MY HKG FRIENDS WHO LIKE VALUE BETS

6) GORDON ROBERTS ....FORM XXX (NO HOPER )
MILER/STAYER TYPE NOT SUITED....HAS NOT EVEN PLACED IN SPRINT RACES

7) SIEZE THE DAY....FORM **
HR 84.82...SF 1:11.244....SECTIONALS 23.691//24.661= 48.352...FANCIED BY A FEWBTO TAKE THE 4TH QUARTET SPOT BUT DOES NOT SEEM CLASSY ENOUGH AS EVIDENT IN HIS WEAK SECTIONALS...WILL BE EXPOSED AND CONFIRM THE THEORY THAT A DROP IN HANDICAP WEIGHT DOES NOT MEAN THE HORSE CAN RUN FASTER WHICH IS A COMMON MISTAKE AMONG NEW RACEGOERS...ALTHOUGH HIS PROJECTED SF IS FASTER THAN HUKA FALLS IT DOES NOT MEAN HE CAN ACTUALLY POST  THIS SF....
I COULD BE WRONG BUT I AM NOT CONVINCED HE WILL MAKE THE TOP 4