Replication of post on Singapore Nap 27July 2012

 This is a replication of my post on Singapore Nap which missed the posting dateline. The tally shall be counted in my strike rate total. I have discussed the issue of the article on STC website regarding Michael Lee's interview with Trainer Ms Leticia Dragon. The interview highlighted the glowing winning chances of Grand Approach (unplaced)and Good Louken (unplaced) and there was a mention of King Racer who ran 2nd over that weekend but curiously and and co-incidentally there was not a single line mentioned of her charge by the name of Pied Piper who won the Shin Min Cup at at good price of $61/$14 . Ms Dragon may have played the Pied Piper and gave the direction of how the interview ran but surely the fact that Ms Dragon had a runner in an STC Promotion event like the Shin Min Cup(albeit a Class 4 race) should have deserved some mention. If the Trainer had forgotten to mention this horse surely the interviewer(if he had researched all the runners Ms Dragon had for the weekend could have asked a probing or searching question as to how Pied Piper was getting along in terms of fitness if not other pertinent questions on assessment of chances as is usually done for major Cup races like the Emirates Derby. Let me reiterate my understanding with STC Senior Management that writers are not Tipsters but surely they could be better prepared by covering and reporting on all the entries that the interviewed Trainer has for that particular weekend. Is this minimum standard of journalistic standards too much to ask for on behalf of the racegoers who read the articles and invest their hard earned money when they go to the races? In future what if the journalists interview a paricular Trainer who has 2 or 3 entries in a particular race.....the Trainer will wax lyrical about one or two of his charges but omits mentioning the remaining horse. It would look awkward to say the least if the horse that is not mentioned goes on to win? Is the journalist the mouthpiece of the Trainers only echoing what the Trainer wants to let on without having the duty of covering all bases(in this case horses). One of the Managers from STC Digital Media....Mr Philip Woong has responded by "strongly disagreeing"to my email by labelling my posting as " senseless argument " and even chiding me by saying "I am barking up the wrong tree. I sincerely hope Mr Woong is not endorsing the return to the past where an interview was done with the connections of Capablanca but stablemate Handsome Jazz won and Don't Tell The Wife Connections but stablemate and hot favourite Flying Fulton won! I am not asking that these journalists to be Top Tipsters but surely a well prepared and well researched interview that covers all the bases is too much to ask! I truly hope the sentiments echoed by Mr Philip Woong in defence of his junior colleague Mr Michael Lee are not shared by Senior Management of STC. To make the point more dramatic let's say Desmond Koh(plaudits have already been given to Mr KOH for rating Chase Me's chances in the Emirates Derby as better than Arrowana Dot Com despite ADC's higher ratings). Mr Koh chooses only to mention ADC's chances....surely the minimum journalistic standards would require the interviewer to ask about Chase Me's chances and form. Mr Phillip Woong seems to be perfectly comfortable if the interviewer fails to ask additional questions and just reports what Mr Koh may choose to metion only. I admire Mr Philip Woong's loyalty in defence of Mr Michael Lee's article but I wonder if it is misplaced and he supports incomplete interviews biased in favour of what the Trainer is willing to reveal without making it a balanced interview covering all the angles! I shall be filing a follow up complaint and I hope to elicit a more insightful and impartial and objective response based on the issues I have raised as I believed in Mr Woong's response it was all emotional with numerous labels on my judgement but not addressing the issues at hand . Mr Woong can rule his Digital Media fiefdom the way he likes( not for me to judge) but if the results affect the ordinary racegoer then these issues should not be allowed to fester at strike rates easily below 25% and closer to 20% if not below as was the case from 01 January 2011 to 31 July after my complaint on the Dont' Tell The Wife article. This was followed by astonishing improvement in the 2nd half of the season where the writers were chalking up extraordinary strike rates of 30-50% but as we all have agreed ...winners are not the issue but all I am asking for is a well balanced coverage...is this too much to ask? I REST MY CASE!

 

Singapore Nap

27July 2012

Dissolved ( X2 )

Race 8 Class 3

1100M Polytrack

Stakes $75,000

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Singapore Nap notched 1 win (and 1 2nd)from 3 selections to stay in a clear lead in the strike rate challenge with 51.61% while Andrew Frost is cantering comfortable in the lead for the full card challenge and as I had predicted earlier in the season when he was not in the lead that he will be my favourite for getting the Top Tipster award with 189 wins from 578 selections for a commanding 32.7% strike rate while Winner21 SMS is lying in 2nd 187 wins for a 32.35% strike rate and Starstatz Racing with only 2 wins on Sunday is om 178 wins for a 30.8% strike rate Racing Guide is just behind Starstatz and Brian Miller is the best of the rest who did not make the 30% benchmark with 172 wins at 29.76%. .In the battle for the wooden spoon Victory Trails continues to "trail" the whole field with 4 of their stable of 5 tipsters hogging the bottom 5 spots(hovering between 131 to 145 wins in the % zone between 22.66% to 25.09% with the exception of Joleen on a credible 167 wins on 28.89% strike rate) . How can they market the product well with the lacklustre performances for their 2nd season from their stable of tipsters and hardly without any new innovations(most of the data produced is available on turfclub.com.sg except for the colours of the jockeys ' silks) since they launched their Flagship publication. SPH has a reputation for trail blazing and leading the way in other fields but in this field Victory Trail are sadly lacking in performance and innovations. STC has introduced 'Trackus" sectional times but till date Victory Trail have either been unable or unwilling (perhaps space constraints might be a consideration)to

embrace the new technology and assist its readers in playing the right horses and its readers will continue going for the favourites with the fastest times which will again happen in the Magic Millions Race on Sunday where I can assure you that the horses with the previous best recorded times will not likely win the race and the horse that we pick to win has the best yielding going sectional times. Punters Way can claim that they have picked 22 winners from all their 3 star picks (they have unabashedly include their 2 star pick on Super Kenny and and Atiamuri who lost it in the Stewards Room). Publications like Punters Way and Victory Trail have a Mandarin Culture in their methodolgies and they are still embracing the technologies of 25 years ago but the latest videos , articles from Magazines are all in English. For example some publications are using opening sectional times of 300M ,600M 800M and 1000M in tandem with the final closing of 400M. I do not begrudge these preferences as there many roads to Rome but I have yet to encounter a reasonable explaination on the use of these sectional times to aid their readers in picking the right winners. Punters Way have 6 3 star picks and 9 2 star picks in Race 5 on Sunday and they have picked 1-4-9-10 to win the race....I wonder what are the odds that the winner is not likely to be one of these 4 horses and will be my pick for this race....he does not have a previously recorded super race time but his relatively unknown Super sire(at least to Singapore) is oozing class all around. Let me give free advice in the English mainstream publications and in HKG circles and the more knowlegable local Trainers in Singapore sectional times are a compilation of the 1st 400M and last 400M times of a race at whatever race distance.

I have 2 more bug bears I would like to address the publication of fastest times should always be with the tandem reproduction of the weight that the horse carried when he clocked that fastest time. Surely one cannot expect a horse who clocked 1:09.9 to when he carried 50kg to clock the same time when he is

carrying 57kg on race day. The 2nd bug bear I will address briefly on this blog (but in greater specific detail on starstatzracing.blogspot.com) is that I accept the point that horse racing journalists are not Race Tipsters and this issue has been agreed between STC Senior Management and the writers and myself a critic of their work. Is it too much too expect these journalists to be thorough in their research when they do pre-race interviews with Trainers and not let the Trainers lead them on the direction the interview goes eg the Trainer has 4 horses running for the weekend and he/she mentions 2 obvious favourites and the 3rd horse but co-incidentally forgets to mention the 4th horse. I understand the local culture that no Trainer (Desmond Koh is a wonderful exception when he mentioned Chase Me ahead of Arrowana Dot Com and Laurie Laxon at times in the past on a good day....Mr Shaw and Mr Freedman when interviewed) is enthusiastic about giving racegoers a "free ride " on tips unlike in HKG where they are proud to talk bout the chances of their horses. Three things can happen ....the Trainer says "the horse is in need of a run and not ready (he/she will look silly if the horse wins).....the 2nd is double talk and being vague....the horse is coming along fine but it is a tough field...or confidently predicts that the horse has good chances to win or do well. There is a slight(or gross as some might think) dereliction of duty when the interviewer fails searching or relevant questions on the horse that the Trainer forgot to mention. In the past I have brought up gross oversights by writers to ask searching questions when these Trainers had 2 or 3 entries in the same race and when interviewed these Trainers would highlight the chances of the race favourite without a single line being mentioned on their stablemates who eventually won . This had happened in the past and addressed by this writer with STC in the examples of Capablanca and stablemate Handsome Jazz won at handsome odds if I could quip and the more recent example on Dont Tell The Wife and stablemate Flying Fulton won. I am not alluding currently to any conspiracy theories but I do hope journalistic standards will improve and when these pre-race interviews are conducted that these writers ensure that all angles and bases (particular all entries by the Trainers for that weekend) and to ensure they inquire form these Trainers and mention all the horses that are running for the weekend and leave it to the Trainers on how the horses are to be mentioned. These same journalists must be seen to be beyond question and ensure they carry out their interviews in a well-prepared and thorough manner to avoid any false accusations of conspiracy theories. I do hope the writers(have the Luck) will conduct a similar interview when these horses with undoubted class bounce back from their defeats and inevitably win again in their next race! It goes beyond question that when the Trainers have more than one charge in the same race that he should comment on all their chances as Mr Desmond did when he kindly hinted that he expected Chase Me to do better than Arrowana Dot Com despite ADC having the higher rating. Kudos to Mr Desmond Koh for being frank and forthright inhis pre-race interview for the Emirates Derby. I shall cover this issue in greater detail with specifics in my other blog if I can make it on time

PREVIEW OF RACE

Dissolved has all the credentials and class to take this race 1st up with only 2 relatively minor problems when taken into context when he beat(despite being on a tight rein) the filly Better Life who duly won her race. His Sire Lonhro (by Octagonal/Zabeel) more noted for his staying prowess in Group 1 and has 6 progeny who have won 11 Group 1 races. However Lonhro is a versatile Sire who is has endowed his progeny with sprinting prowess probably from Lonhro's Dam Shadea(by Straight strike /Mr Prospector line)who herself is a half-sister to 7 time Group 1 winner Grand Armee. Dissolved has a credible strike rate of 3 wins/3 placings from 9 starts when fit and his wins were from 1100M to 1400M and what is pertinent is that his Listed Race win is over today's race distance of 1100M(Flemington Stakes) albeit on Turf in a fast time of 1:04.26 with 53kg . He is a big horse standing at 16.1 hands so carrying the impost of 56.5kg will not pose any problems at all.Dissolved Dam is no slouch eithe rhving won a 1600M race and is by Grand Lodge.If we probe further into the Dam's bloodline you will find staying classy staying luminaries like Danzig,Habitat,Sir Tristram and Whiskey Road. However Dissolved's half brother by his Dam Yarralumla seems to have inherited the sprinting attributes as well. Besides he is going to have the services of Magic Moreira as well and he should pay well despite being a 1st favourite despite being drawn in gate 10. He has sufficient natural gatespeed to get the rails run without extending himself as he is the sole front runner in this race and he should get across and be in a comfortable position in a opening sectional slower than 24.0. In the worst case scenario he could sit in the box seat behind BM Win (BMW) and Squall Line if BMW presses him for the early lead. The only negative is that Dissolved 's last win was 874 days ago on 6 March 2010 and his last run in a race was 25February 2011 but this factor is being negated by the fact that he has an excellent 1st up record of 1 win and 2 placing from 4 1st up attempts. He probably has suffered a setback or injury but judging from the trackwork he seems to have recovered fully and Moreira has personally taken him out for trackwork and his trials were all on a tight hold!

Today i have used the sectional times to help me assess the race and the best sectional times in order are 8-9-10-5-12-7-11-6-1. My selections in order are 2-8-9-6-10-5-12. I suggest to take a calculated risk by using 2 as the sole banker on the 1st line and if on a budget use 8-9-6 as key horses on the 2nd line with 8-9-6-10-5-12on the remining 3rd and 4th lines. If budget is not a problem by all means go ahead with 2#8-9-6-10-5-12 but take note that the expected slow pace will not help the cause of off pace runners like Totara(bled before) and Royce and closers like Saratoga (despite his favourable handicap ratings) and Hey Toro who will probably jump last. Do play a big 3 star bet on 2 on win/place and I expect the support for Moreira to be offset by bad barrier draw and his dividend should be a double digit figure as racegoers are usually prejudiced against wide draws. Do a big forecast/play forecast on 2#8-9-6(key horses) with additional tickets on 2#8-9 (key horses)

Sngapore Nap selects: number 2 Dissolved ( X2 )

Next Singapore Nap 29 July 2012

Supplied in Singapore by Patrick Khoo