STARSTATZ on SOCCER - EURO CHAMPIONSHIP SEMI-FINALS 27/28 JUNE 2012

UPDATE ON ROI....STARSTATZ on SOCCER enjoyed its best pay out of this Tournament with a 235% ROI in the England vs Italy DRAW where we invested $400 and reaped returns of $940 when bonus bet DRAW/DRAW collected as well.STARSTATZ ROI now stands at 16.23% profits based on $5680 investments and $6602 returns when Spain beat France as well. In the 1st rounds we had predicted more than 50% of the matches correctly and had a 100% perfect score in the 4 quarter-final matches and 3 out of 4 of the half-time / full -time bonus dividends correctly as well.
GENERAL ADVISORY ON FUTURE BET PLAYS...
I read an article on the internet which stated that the best bet plays are the (1 X 2) which I agree with zealous enthusiasm and advocated play on minus 1.5 goals (which is useful in the early stages of a Tournament but not suitable in the knock-out rounds and especially in the Semis and the Final itself) where the gap in standards are close. The article went on to discourage play on the half-time /full time because there are 9 possible permutations but it is precisely because of this that I recommend it as a good play with practically a 50/50% probability if you are confident on the outcome as can be seen in both semi-finals in this Euro Championships.The not so savvy punters like to take a punt on the big odds offered on the 7 other combinations so they are in actual fact donating or sposoring the dividends on our 2 probable outcomes ie AWAY/AWAY or DRAW/AWAY for the SPAIN game and HOME/HOME or DRAW/HOME for the GERMANY game. I have shown you how we have secured profits with the proviso that this bet type must be smaller and covered by the bigger bet on the (1 X 2 ) result for this plan to work. Even if you make a mistake on the bonus bet your main bet on the (1 X 2) stlll collects enough profits to pay for potential losses on the minus 1.5 goals handicap if one should fail as we have shown in the FRANCE vs SPAIN encounter in the Quarter Finals where we still made a profit of $96 despite the HT/FT bet failing.
PLAYER FACTOR....PORTUGAL have lost Helder Postiga(he wont be missed by me as he has not contibuted) through a hamstring injury and will be replaced by the younger (by one year at 28 years )Hugo Almeida who will add height at 1.91(6ft. 3 ins.)to the attack who is currently playing for Bestikas in Turkey(2nd tier league) but at least he had previous experience with Werder Bremen in Germany where he scored 50 goals in 4 seasons and is a more than able replacement.
SPAIN are missing influential and inspirational Captain Carlos Puyol from Barcelona from the start through injury who seems to inject grit and some steel in the SpanishTeam when he plays.
GERMANY will have influential midfield general Bastian Schweinstiger back after a tarsal foot injury after missing the 1st round matches. I can also assure (tongue in cheek) that I have a copy of the leaked team list and that the front trio (Lukasz Podolski, Mario Gomez and Thomas Mueller )who were benched in the Greece game will be back to bludgeon and batter the Italians into early submission.
ITALY has severe problems with Christian Maggio at right back out through 2 yellow cards and have grave doubts whether their walking wounded who were out earlier like Giogio Chellini (hamstring), the original and the duo of Danielle De Rossi and Ignazio Abate who both limped out of the England game with muscle problems. If Abate does not play Italy will hve to play without  recognised right back and will have to shuffle the line up and bring in Thiago Motta for Chellini  and shuffle the defence and bring in Leornado  Bonucci. Facing the German onslaught with a full Italian team is already hard enough but with the Italian defence being patched up like an emergency ward and even if they park the proverbial bus I dont think the Italian patched up hop skotch defence can hold off the rampaging Germans for even the 1st 45 minutes.
THE FATIGUE FACTOR....From this angle alone(not taking into account the quality of opposing players )the Germans will have an easier game against the Italians than the Spanish against the Portuguese. The Spanish have travelled 900km (3 hours by air... to and fro and back is 9 hours) to the hot stifling heat (energy sapping)of Donetsk in Ukraine for the Quarter-finals and the Portuguese travelled a relatively shorter dustance across the border but have the advantage of 48 hours longer rest than the Spanish Team. I believe the stadium at Donetsk where the semi-finals are played and the heat will stifle attacking play to a certain extent and they try to conserve their energy in  this weather.
Likewise the Germans have the advantage of 48 hours longer rest than the Italians and the Italians had the extra 30 minutes of energy draining extra time against the English lads.
BETTING OPTIONS FOR SEMI -FINALS
There is a slim possibility for a draw in the Portugal vs Spain encounter but the odds do not appear that this option is a good bet. It is clear I am going for a straight win for both favourite teams but we do half interesting options for the half-time/full time and I am right getting only one of the 2 matches right on this bet type will yield us a profit.
OPTION 1....Take the shortest odds for both games....ie AWAY/AWAY for Spain at odds of $3.30 and HOME/HOME for the Germany game at odds of $3.00....makes sense as this is the favourite position and likely outcome on percentage betting but favourites dont always oblige as both opposition defences may park the proverbial bus(this bet type scored well in early stages)
OPTION 2....Since both opposition defences will park the proverbial bus and will not attack in numbers and the favourites may be cautious in not wanting to make a  mistake and be caught on a quick counter - attack which has been the modus operandi of both weaker teams since the Tournament started.Odds for DRAW/SPAIN and DRAW/GERMANY are at $4.10
OPTION 3....Using instinct, analysis (injured/missing  players and fatigue factor)as I have mentioned I understand from odds offered that the Portuguese have a 11% better chance of holding the Spanish to a draw at half-time or even take the lead.This is the position I will opt for ie DRAW/SPAIN AND HOME/HOME for the Germany game.
Whatever option you choose I believe you will have a profit even if you only get one match right on this bonus bet thus collecting money from the Punters who blindly and indirectly financing your play by taking any of the 7 other positions. We shall see if my crystal ball pans out and we collect on at least one of the the bets. In order of merit I favour option 3/option 2/option 1 in that specific order but you may bet one of the other 2 options if you disagree with my position...who knows you may get Lucky. i believe I have narrowed you to viable winning options instead of playing any of the 7 other options and I challenge anybody to comment and I will give the handicap of taking any 2(only fair as the odds are higher and consequentially harder to win) of the 7 options vs my lone option for each match.
MY OFFICIAL MYSTERY BET.....I gave this advice in my last post when the price was $2.80 for Germany to win the Tournament outright but the odds have dropped to $2.40 and those are the odds i will take today. I am doing this at this stage to avoid losing on the draw at 90 mins and taking odds close to $1.80 or $1.90 for Germany to win the final in 90 mins.  I shall reserve the option to cover my bet with DRAW at 90 mins and Germany to win the Tournament or even hedge and cover my bet with Spain plus 1.5 goals. If this bet survives and Germany reaches the Finals as I duly expect them without much trauma , drama and anxiety I shall strategise and mastermind my next move.Let's hope I am right and Germany reaches the Finals in the 1st place and I am prepared to lose this $1000 if Germany fails.
OFFICIAL BET ON PORTUGAL VS SPAIN(MATCH NUMBER 0829)
$400 on SPAIN to WIN on (1 X 2 )  at ODDS of $1.80
$100 on DRAW/SPAIN on HT/FT at ODDS of $4.10
OFFICIAL BET ON GERMANY VS ITALY (MATCH NUMBER 0830)
$600 on GERMANY to WIN on (1 X 2 ) at ODDS of $1.78
$100 on HOME/HOME OR GERMANY/GERMANY on HT/FT at ODDS of $3.00
REMINDER: For our semi-final strategy to work the bet type for HT/FT must be EQUAL for both games but I suggest betting 10-30%(my bet is 33.33% larger) larger  (according to your budget) on the Germany game on the (1 X 2).
I am prepared to risk my accumulated profits of $922 on these 2 games and follow the maxim (not to be applied in casinos where you run when you have profits and take a break) of roll your profits when you are on a hot streak and stake my journalistic reputation on the outcome of these matches although some do remind me " that the ball is round"
I have made some effort to present this semi-final as a show-piece of my journalistic standards(do pardon me if there are typo errors) and as a testimony to my tipping ability to qualify for the Pundit "Tag''. I will present this as a sample to support my application for the role of English Media Newscaster and in-house Pundit for REDIFFUSION on the subject of horse racing and EPL Soccer(positive ROI as well)  where I have a strike rate of over 49.06% on my Singapore Naps blog on www.7naps.com and a respectable 3rd in the Media tipster full card Challenge with 161 wins(above 31.9%) behind leaders Winner21SMS on 167 wins and Andrew Frost on 165 wins.
I hope Lady Luck stays with us all the way to the Finals and see if I can maintain my perfect result in matches from the quarter-finals onwards