After all the good work in predicting all 4 Quarter-Final matches correctly I crashed in both Semi-Finals blowing $2200($1000 loss on Germany to win the Tournament was particularly painful) on the Germany loss to Italy. However getting 4 matches right from 6 matches right compares favorably with Brian Miller(3 correct from 6 matches) and the rest of the Guys from the Newpaper as a whole.My ROI is now in deficit by 21.22% and I hope to redeem my lost pride by getting it right for the Finals.
I have not read Eric Ding's post in the Newpaper tomorrow but I would suspect we are both on the same trail as he tipped the draw in the Semi - Finals between Spain and Portugal and a recent Major Final as well. I had also tipped a Draw in the 2006 World Cup Finals for a draw at 90 mins(with a bonus Draw/Draw for good measure and even a token bet at the last minute on Italy to win the Tournament. This draw phenomenon occurs every 2 years in major tournaments(remember the last European Cup Final where Chelsea held overwhelming favourites to a draw at 90 mins before winning...i believe Eric predicted this one correctly if I am not mistaken) and I strongly encourage to heed my advice or conduct your own research before you place your bet.
Draws are usually priced between $3.20 to $3.30 but when they drop below $3.00 like the Finals at $2.95 it is enough to set my alarm bells ringing and this drop in price occured in the England draws with France and Italy(which I had tipped correctly). This co-incidence of draws when there is a serious price drop below $3.00 is uncanny. Moreover the fact that the bookmakers including Singapore Pools are offering more than $2.00 to take either team also means they are not afraid that you take either team as they are able to balance their books and even try to entice you with odds of better than even money ie $2.10 in the case of Spain and $3.25 in the case of Italy.
Call it ConspiracyTheory...both teams have a strong defence manned arguably by the 2 best experienced goalkeepers in the world or cautious play by teams in Finals but you cannot ignore this phenomenon. My official bet will be:-
SPAIN VS ITALY.....DRAW ON THE (1 x 2) ....$750 BET AT ODDS@$2.95
DRAW/DRAW ON THE HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME....$150 BET AT ODDS @$4.00
$100 BET ON ITALY(YOU CAN CONSIDER SPAIN @$1.63 AS AN ALTERNATE BUT IT DOES NOT MATTER MUCH IF YOU ALREADY COLLECTED AT 90 MINS. BUT IT WILL BE A GOOD COVER IF YOUR SELECTED TEAM WINS WITHIN 90 MINS) TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT AT ODDS @ $2.05
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