II have established a track record on Singapore Horse racing for the past 3 years on 7naps.com and also through my emails to STC senior officials and the Singapore Press and since this year on this personal blog.
My track record on Soccer is largely unknown but I have winning couipons to lay claim that I managed to tip the 90 mins result for the last 4 World Cup 2006 matches correctly and also 3 of the half/time full results correctly.
I did established a fair track record on the silverhairsclub.com website for this year's quarter final matches where I have suggested taking the underdogs overall so the semi -finals will be my 1st foray into the public eye. I fully agree with Brian Miller of the Newpaper regarding the eventual winners and the other finalist. On the Silverhairs forum I had tipped Germany to win the Cup before they beat the daylights out of England and according to a member the odds were at 10-1 for Germany to carry the Cup.
My analysis is simple the odds of 1.64 for a Holland win indicates where the smart money is going. Eric Ding in his column in the Newpaper has advocated a "conspiracy theory which has helped me in earlier rounds where a lot of pussyfooting took place where favourites fell like 9 pins and in the Quarter Finals there were further upsets thus perpetuating the conspiracy theory further. The Asian market is a good barometer of how the results might turn up. This analysis has no bearing on the actual standard of soccer being played by both teams but actually tracks the smart money. The Asian market is offering 3 quarter ball ie half ball/one ball which I believe is designed to make the punter think it is too much a handicap to give to a team like Uruguay and most will go against Holland as a result. I believe the score will be either 2-1 or 1-0 in favour of Holland and I recommend a medium bet on Holland to win on the Pools ,market at 1.62 odds and a token bet on draw -Holland for the half-time/full time at odds of 3.90. Remember the favourites to win the Cup are Germany at 2.20, Spain at 3.15. Holland at 3.30 and Uruguay at 13.00. for the Asia market . The odds on a draw at 90mins are too high at 3.65.
For the 2nd semi final the pools has Germany to win at 2.15 but it is 2.025 on the Asian market but it gets interesting for the Spain odds at 2.65 for the Pools market and 1.875 for the Asian market. which is a vast differnce. This leaves me to conclude that a Draw seems likely and wins being irrelevant. I fancy Germany to go through after 90mins and a draw-draw is suggested for a token bet on top of draw as the main bet.
In conclusion I think tipping who will go to the next round like Mani the Parkeet is a vast difference on getting it right on the Asian market and worse on the 3 possible outcomes Pools market. I think the parakeet who got all right in the Quarter Finals will turn into a coo-coo(cockatoo) for the semi-finals forecast and winning Champion forecast. In reality the Spain Germany game will be close and it could go either way but Holland is likely to prevail over Uruguay(question is whether it is within 90 mins or not). Whoever wins the other Semi-Finals will beat Holland as reflected in the winning odds to lift the Cup and boths odds show both Germany and Spain ahead of Holland. If there is a change in the odds for the 2nd semi-final I will monitor and review if necessary. Watch out for my post for the Finals and the fight for 3rd/4th place.
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